counterfeited boat on the river, call a small river bet?

Empire $100NL Full Ring

Hero has $110 and Villain has him covered. Here’s my notes on Villain: “calls down with almost anything; never releases a hand; doesn’t know when not to draw;” The table was overall pretty tight and I actually decided to stay only because I knew I could easily stack Villain if I played a big hand against him, and here it comes....

Preflop: UTG raises to $3, MP1 calls, Hero calls in MP 4h 4d, and Villain call in BB.

($12) Flop: 6c 4c 8d

UTG bets $5, fold, Hero raises to $15, Villain (in BB) calls $15, UTG folds.

($47) Turn: 6c 4c 8d 6s

Hero bets $23, Villain hesitates and calls.

($93) River 6c 4c 8d 6s 6h

Villain bets $20, Hero???


Anybody call this? When he called the turn, especially after hesitating, I really put him on two overs and a flush draw. I also figured he could have an overpair, or TPTK. Is he stealing enough with a busted flush draw for me to call here with just a pair of fours? I’m getting almost 6 to 1.

At this point in the hand, you can really only beat a bluff. I think this would depend on how you've seen this opponent play previously. Do you think he would bluff a busted flush enough of the time that the pot odds justify a call? My guess is no, unless he read you for a 4 the whole time, (which wouldn't make sense considering the way you played the hand) there aren't many hands he could get you to fold here. However, if this opponent happens to be one who you've seen take numerous desperation stabs at pots on the end after he missed his hand, then i think a call is certainly in order here given the pot odds. It's hard for me to give you a very good estimate without knowing who the player is and what he's been doing, but I think that you should be able to make a fairly easy call or fold here, depending on what you've seen this opponent do previously.

[amoeba]

don't forget about 75.

I don't know if you are ahead here more than 1/5 of the time but I call just because I want to know what he'll call a flop raise and a potsized bet on the turn with.

You have no notes on his bluffing tendencies, and you have pretty strong opinions on the rest of his play. I say fold and break something.

[Percula]

[ QUOTE ]

Villain bets $20, Hero???


Anybody call this? When he called the turn, especially after hesitating, I really put him on two overs and a flush draw. I also figured he could have an overpair, or TPTK. Is he stealing enough with a busted flush draw for me to call here with just a pair of fours? I’m getting almost 6 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call and expect to see an ace, K, 8, 4 or 6.