Missed bets

[Rockfish]

I think I left some sugar on the table here.

Party Poker 0.5/1.

I'm on the button with J/forums/images/icons/heart.gifJ/forums/images/icons/club.gif.

2 MP limpers to me, I raise. SB calls, BB folds, limpers call. Four to the flop with 8 sb.

Flop comes 9/forums/images/icons/heart.gifQ/forums/images/icons/diamond.gifK/forums/images/icons/club.gif. Ruh Roh.

All check to me, I bet out, SB calls, 1st limper calls, 2nd limper folds. Three to the turn with 11 sb.

Turn comes T/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif.

SB comes to life and bets, limper calls, I call.

River comes 2/forums/images/icons/spade.gif.

SB bets out again, MP folds, I call.

Questions:

1) What do you think my bet on the flop? The table was pretty passive, so I didn't expect more than one raise. If raised I think I have the odds to call to see the turn (11:1 for the gutshot with between 8 and 11 sb in the pot depending on the number of callers).

2) Should I have raised on the turn? I feared AJ at the time and that was my primary thought although with the benefit of 20 x 20 hindsight the loose caller could have had me beat on the flop and made two pair on the turn when I hit my straight.

3) Pretty sure I should have raised the river given my analysis of point 2. I'm ahead of every hand that could play except precisely AJ, and many hands were playing.

Results:

SB had K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif T /forums/images/icons/heart.gif for two pair on the turn.

[togilvie]

You shouldn't be afraid of AJ. Since you've got two of them, Bayes indicates that the probability your opponent is holding AJ is much more unlikely.

I definitely would have raised the turn. If I raised and SB bet out again on the river, I might just call it down. But it would be hard to resist the raise.

[Rockfish]

You're absolutely right and that's exactly what I was thinking as soon as the hand ended. That's why I requested the hand history and wrote it up.

I need to convince myself that most of the time he won't have AJ just based on the laws of probability. At the same time the recent short-term data I have on probability suggests that if he's in there against me at the end, he's got the one hand I don't want to see...

Rockfish