99 on button vs. EP limper, who bets K high flop

[chopchoi]

.25/.50 NL. I have $25, on the button with 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

One player limps from EP, it folds to me, I raise to $2, the blinds fold, the limper calls.

The flop is K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. The limper bets $3. I...

Fold. Its a rainbow board with no open ended straight possibilities. What hands could he hold? 1. KQ, 2. 78, 3. A7, 4. A3, 5. 77, 6. 33. While you might be a small statistical favorite to currently hold the best hand, you either have 2 outs to beat him, or he has 5 outs to beat you. Moreoever, his hand is easier to play no matter what he holds. If you call his flop bet, and he bets half the pot on turn, you are again forced with a tough decision. If you raise small on the flop and he calls and checks the turn, presumably you would check the turn behind. What do you do if he bets out for half the pot or the full pot?

The point is, its a small pot, better not to get involved unless your opponent is very aggressive or very very bad.

[chopchoi]

Isn't there also the possibility that he was thinking like this::

"There's at least a 50% chance that he missed this flop, and will fold to a bet. I'll bet $3 with nothing, and see if I can get him to throw his hand away."

Yes, there is a possibility he is doing that. But don't make plays based on the suspicion of that. Watch his play, make the read, and then adjust your play.