Questionable Turn Play

[GimmeDaWatch]

Ok, dont have the hand history but Im pretty sure I remember all the important action in the hand, so bear with me. This hand was played in a $50 PLO room on PokerRoom. Villain has about $50 and I have him covered.

I have JJQ8 suited in spades (Q hi) and the flop comes:

JT6 with a spade draw. Sweet flop.

I bet pot (about $3.50) and LP villain calls, all others fold.

The turn is an offsuit Queen, which I obviously wasnt thrilled about, but I felt like there was a good chance it didnt make villain's hand since its not the most obvious str8 card, and I REALLY didnt wanna give a free card to a bigger flush or let a smaller set off easy. So, I bet $6 into a $10 pot. Without much thinking, villain raises pot to $29. I hate this spot. Normally, I just fold a set here against most players but I'm thinking I also have 9 flush outs for the river and mayyyyyyyybe my gutshot, giving me around the right price to call. He's also only got about $6.50 left, which puts me to a disgustingly difficult fold if I brick the river. Anyhow, blast away.

[autobet]

Easy call. If he has a better spade draw to go with a straight, you still have 9 outs to fill so your -EV is small. It's possible your gutshot could win (not likely) or at least get you a split. If you spades are good your call will be +EV. You need around 13 outs to break even on a turn call if you are behind.

You will be getting around 10-1 on your river call. If it bricks on the river, you will be lucky to win 1 in 11. I would still tend to call many opps to keep them honest and to see their hand. I got raised on the turn Friday, by a guy slowplaying a set who raised when a J hit to a Q10x flop. He had 10 10. This is probably not happening here, but getting 10-1 I'd probably check him out.

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call. If he has a better spade draw to go with a straight, you still have 9 outs to fill so your -EV is small. It's possible your gutshot could win (not likely) or at least get you a split. If you spades are good your call will be +EV. You need around 13 outs to break even on a turn call if you are behind.

You will be getting around 10-1 on your river call. If it bricks on the river, you will be lucky to win 1 in 11. I would still tend to call many opps to keep them honest and to see their hand. I got raised on the turn Friday, by a guy slowplaying a set who raised when a J hit to a Q10x flop. He had 10 10. This is probably not happening here, but getting 10-1 I'd probably check him out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, this was pretty much my thinking at the time, but after the hand I was thinking that I may have botched it by not just check-calling the turn. I didnt want to check, though, for the reasons previously mentioned, but it would be a much less expensive way to see the river. I just kinda hate these spots where Im priced in to call off most of my stack even though Im a dog to win on the river.

[joewatch]

I prefer check-call in this situation because

1. you have a good draw
2. Villain is likely to have a hand like AKQx or KQ9x with also a spade draw
3. you get to evaluate villain's play based on his bet size/ how long it takes him to bet to get a read on his hand in response to your check
4. If villain has you beat, he will call or raise, if he has a lone flush draw, he will fold, so it is unlikely that your bet will make you any money (it will only save you money)
5. If he raises you, I don't think you have the odds to continue by calling, and you will have cost yourself the same amount of money as betting.
6. Because of #5, you are prone to getting bluffed out of the hand, whereas check-call takes the need to make that decision go away.

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer check-call in this situation because

1. you have a good draw
2. Villain is likely to have a hand like AKQx or KQ9x with also a spade draw
3. you get to evaluate villain's play based on his bet size/ how long it takes him to bet to get a read on his hand in response to your check
4. If villain has you beat, he will call or raise, if he has a lone flush draw, he will fold, so it is unlikely that your bet will make you any money (it will only save you money)
5. If he raises you, I don't think you have the odds to continue by calling, and you will have cost yourself the same amount of money as betting.
6. Because of #5, you are prone to getting bluffed out of the hand, whereas check-call takes the need to make that decision go away.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that check-calling may be best here, but I can't agree with a couple of your points. Villain will very likely call with a smaller set and with any combination str8/flush draw that hasnt gotten there yet. As for #5, I definitely have odds to call as long as he doesnt have the str8 with a bigger flush draw, which isnt terribly likely. Im getting 2:1 w/about 17 or so outs + another $6.50 or in implied money which is definitely goin in there. Unofortunately, he did have the str8 w/the nut flush draw /images/graemlins/frown.gif. That blew.

I guess I still should have check-called.