The ever-vulnerable AA (A.K.A. rubber-bullets)

[KDF]

There’s nothing too special about a pair of aces, but this hand was interesting in the way it was played. I’d like opinions on the flop and turn plays especially:

3-6 Texas Hold’em online- Loose- passive/ aggressive (ie. a few T&A are in there keeping it more war-like instead of grandma's kitchen, but plenty of fish to be had)

I’m in UTG+1 with AA.
UTG calls, I raise, 3 cold callers come in plus BB and UTG call. 6 to see the flop. I think to myself, “that sucks; oh well I hope I hit something and punish the fools”
Flop: -Jd 5c 6c- (good; not very threatening)

UTG checks; I check (thinking: its going to check down to LP and one of those bums will bet and I will check raise the rest of them out- two pretty decent aggressive players are in LP. I don’t think these MP players will bet…- WRONG
My immediate left (UTG+2) checks; next guy (MP) bets; ALL CALL!
I think for a moment and CALL- I think: “if I raise now, nobody’s folding, all I’m doing is jacking up the pot giving almost anybody with anything the odds to see the river. I’m going to bet-out the turn- hoping for a raise from MP to reduce the field and then hope he’s still behind me- other wise I just have to cross my fingers and hope the AA will hold up- yeah, what- EH-VER!. Will the real best hand please stand-up! UTG+2 calls along.

Turn -Jd 5c 6c-Qh (ok, some sucker with QJ is happy)

UTG bets out! “hmm- no QQQ set, he would’ve raised pre-flop; QJ?- maybe, doubtful from previous play; AQ- naaa; KQ or KQs- maybe- seems most likely; 78c- possible; what about JJ, 66 or 55? Hmm… I’m going to raise and hopefully knock out these clowns, if I get reraised I’m in trouble.”

I raise and wipe out the field (duuude!- sweeet!); UTG calls. (no reraise- TG!)

River -Jd 5c 6c-Qh -7h
UTG checks; I bet for value and…

How’s the play and reasoning on this one? Results to come.

[Barry]

In my experience, slow playing AA brings nothing but grief. Bet and raise at every opportunity and make it expensive for people to draw out on you. When a preflop raiser checks warning bells go off in my head. It could have been checked around and you give a free card to the flush draw.

My guess is that UTG was on a flush draw with Q /forums/images/icons/club.gif and you win a nice pot. But still, repeat after me, "I will bet my aces"

[Utah]

I agree. Bet this up. As a general rule, I always play as fast as the cards will allow me to in multiway pots.

More worrisome is you thinking about the pot and the odds. You want every idiot in the world to call/raise you preflop. While your variance goes up with a lot of callers so does your EV.

On the flop, they might have correct odds to call your bets but you are still very happy to get them to put in the bets. They are getting odds from the field but they are giving odds to you.

I could be wrong but I sense fear/defeatism in your playing. This is based on the title of your post and the way you played your hand. You have to love AA and not be so fearful that it will always get cracked by someone hanging around with junk.

[Joe Tall]

Preflop - fine (tough one with the whole Brady Bunch jumping on the bus however) /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

Flop - BET OUT! /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif (you already have 6 BBs and getting tricky with cold-callers in a large pot is often very dangerous). Plus if an MP raises, it might knock out a few and you can ram-jam it on the rebound. However, since you did not...I feel it's a good call when it came around. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

Turn - perfect! - (knocked out everyone except Sam the butcher). /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

River - if you got raised, Sam boinked Alice...if not I think you hand is good! /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif

[eMarkM]

There’s nothing too special about a pair of aces

Like another poster said, this sounds defeatist. AA is hugely +EV, nearly double KK and clobbers every other hand. You only remember the times it got cracked and forget the times you dragged down a big pot as expected.

Bet it out and be happy others call you.

[Barry]

Vulnerable hmmm...., let's look at some facts:

I have about 25,000 hands in my poker tracker database; others I'm sure have more. I was dealt AA 132 times; that's once every 192 hands. That's good, its better than the average of 1 in 220. Those A's held up 80% of the time.

Next in line are QQ, AKs, KK and JJ which were winners between 67% and 61% of the time. Everything else, beginning with AKo won less than 60%.

So while they don't hold up all the time, they are the best hand by far; always play them the way they deserve to be played.

Giving free cards with them, can only lower their win rate.

[Louie Landale]

Just calling the flop because you don't want to make the pot so big everyone will call, is pretty hopeless reasoning. You should routinely max the better whenenver you are the favorite, which you clearly are; yes you are going to take this one down a LOT more often than 1 time in 6.

Calling, figuring to bet out ont the turn hoping UTG2 raises is reasonably sound thinking, but I have to admit I doubt I've ever actually done that. I mean, is he really going to raise with a J when a 7 comes? what will he put you on? Calling figuring to check-raise the turn is also sound thinking.

On the turn you are still clearly the favorite. But are you SURE you want everyone with a pair to fold? Are they really getting the right odds to call one bet but not two? Are some not getting enough odds to call even one bet? All-in-all, I'd say "yes I want them out" since the pot is big and would raise, but its NOT a no-brainer.

- Louie

[KDF]

Thanks for the feedback and analysis. Albeit, much of it is one dimensional (not intended to be a slight, just an observation…I expected more!!) /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

Result:
…UTG calls. Bullets take it down! /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif (And you thought this was a defeatist post...are you guys poker players or what! /forums/images/icons/wink.gif ) The hand transcript showed he had KQc and was passively waiting for payday. /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif

Now, the title of the post was to illustrate the fear (defeatist) some feel when in that situation. Read DavidRoss's post (read the acurate responses) about wondering if folding aces was correct with a giant pot in front of him. The fear comes from the number of floppers involved and is partially justified.
Truth is: Aces are very vulnerable in this situation. If the flop were any worse, it would have been even trickier. The object of my strategy here was not defeatist by far. I called with the full intention of finding a way to make it too expensive on the turn so that (almost) any call would be a mistake-- almost. I had to find a way to narrow the field and/ cause mistakes and I had few options.
Admittedly, it could have back-fired, I could have been beaten already and drawing dead on the river, or maybe other ‘good’ draws were around and they wouldn’t have folded anyway-- etc. , etc. (fully aware). But it worked and had the exact effect I was looking for and I felt good about it. If the Club flush came, and he was the only one left, I would’ve have congratulated him on a good call, snapped my fingers and said, "shucks…next hand please". He had the odds and saved me money by not playing his top pair, big draw strong enough. I would’ve still liked my play, even though I would've lost.

Regarding stats: Look up how often AA wins when 6 (count’em)-- SIX players see the flop…it is not 80%…it’s more like 50% if they all stay to the river (which could've happened here).

BTW the "there's nothing special about a pair of aces" comment, was referring to the overall hand history of aces is generally boring, it's either “look how much I won”, or “waaa, aces always lose for me”—that’s the standard stories. My point here was the complexity of the situation and my choice (which I believe was right all the way through) gave me the best chance to win. The pot amount I won is of no consequence to the point of the story. I have no problem with AA-- I LOVE THEM! ACES ARE MY FRIEND. And I am certainly not a defeatist.

In conclusion: Realize that a raise on the flop would not have dropped anyone and the pot size would be that much bigger making it hard for me to induce or ‘create mistakes’ on the turn. It was a risky play, the I think the logic was sound. Otherwise at least 3 or so would’ve stayed to the river and my AA would have had a harder time winning. I could be wrong…I don’t know…
IMHO
Thanks again for your continued comments...

[KDF]

"hopeless reasoning"- strong words Louie. Read HPFAP 21st cent.; pg157-158. "...manipulating the pot size into one that is most likelyto be a size where they make errors."- hopeless?- I guess...not

With all due respect...I used this very concept here and i feel it was correct. Blasting away with aces into a 6 man field is not always the best strategy.

[KDF]

Hi,

Against 6 its more like 50%. Who gave away a free card anyway?

[rigoletto]

I think you are overintepreting here. In your case the pot was allready huge when it got back to you and considering your next post regarding the winrate of AA:

Against 6 its more like 50%. It's a big mistake not to raise this board when you get 5:1.

[Louie Landale]

I have never been a big fan of the "manipulating the size of the pot" stuff of the authors. Yes, there ARE times it may be worth it (such as raising with a small pair late because the bigger pot will encourage hopeless calls if you DO make a set). But the authors never offered a convincing argument nor a compelling situation.

And even if you DO manipulate them into making a mistake, YOU have already made a mistake when you manipulated the pot (you bet/raised as a dog or failed to bet/raise as a favorite). So you need to calculate the cost of YOUR SURE mistake with the potential benefit you gain of the mistake the opponents MAY make BECAUSE of your mistake. That takes a good understanding of the opponents weaknesses and a pretty quick mind to do the calculation.

Here's one: the opponent is going to call you down with his small pair no matter what you do with your big pair. If you bet the flop he's getting the right odds to call the turn, but if you check the flop and bet the turn, he ISN'T getting the right odds. So by checking you have manipulated the size of the pot and caused him to make a mistake (he calls the turn without the right odds). Never-the-less, checking loses money; lots of money: you lost your equity in the flop bet and gained nothing whatsoever. So you have successfully "manipulated the size of the pot" and "caused the opponent to make a mistake", have satisfied the authors criteria, and lost money.

In your situation, you are presuming that you can cause them to make a mistake by just calling, hehehe, instead of flailing away with your clearly-favorite hand. Well, the only such "mistake" I can foresee is if they raise your turn bet. And like I said that IS a reason to just call.

If I'm wrong, then someone can please show mathematically how this manipulation can possibly cause a non-insane player to "make a call-or-fold mistake" that is beneficial to the AA.

- Louie

Now, there ARE times where manipulating the pot CAN have some benefits, but I'm sure this isn't one of them.