Thoughts on raising from the bb after many limpers

[fire_fly]

you're in the bb, 3+ ppl limp to you, you have a legitimate (ssh), but not fantastic, raising hand. Am I the only one who sees checking as a nice option?

I'm talking about hands with an equity edge, but not a GREAT equity edge. Especially 99, TT, JJ, but even some like AQo, which doesn't do real swell in a big multiway pot where you're oop for the entire hand.

Ex. TT in bb, 4 limp to you, you raise (supposed to according to ssh.) Everyone calls. Flop comes with 1 or 2 overcards. You bet and I don't see who's calling w/ a worse hand. You check, they bet, and you are certainly not getting 22:1 odds to hit your 2 outer, so you fold.

I know this totally goes against what we're taught (equity, aggression, etc.) but especially with these 3 hands, it just seems to get me into trouble more times than not.

Set me straight?

[lufbradolly]

All the hands you mention i raise in that position you have an equity edge and increase your chances of winning the pot by raising and taking control of the hand.

[aK13]

You win much more than your fair share of the time with the hands you want to raise. Your opponents have already made the mistake of playing unprofitable hands preflop, so your raise allows you to exploit this mistake and extract more money. It's about expected value -- with every bet you put in, you expect to make back more than that bet (like raising a 4 flush with a bettor and 2 callers to you). While you will lose that bet frequently, you expect to make back more than what you spent in the first place in the long run.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
You win much more than your fair share of the time with the hands you want to raise. Your opponents have already made the mistake of playing unprofitable hands preflop, so your raise allows you to exploit this mistake and extract more money. It's about expected value -- with every bet you put in, you expect to make back more than that bet (like raising a 4 flush with a bettor and 2 callers to you). While you will lose that bet frequently, you expect to make back more than what you spent in the first place in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said.

For instance against 4 limpers we might only win 1/4 of the time with a particular holding, which might be frustrating especially when overcards flop (or we miss) over half the time, but we should still exploit our 5% equity edge.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
Especially 99, TT, JJ, but even some like AQo,

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When I pick up one of these hands in the big blind and see three fish limp in front of me, I smile a little inside.

[Bodhi]

It "gets you into trouble more times than not" because your standard winning % against a large field with 99-JJ is less than 50%. Learn to distinguish between those times you should continue on and those times you should give up and fold.

[VoraciousReader]

You will all probably think this is crazy, but this is how I think about this situation. It's probably just another way of stating the math, but it helps me to think about this more abstractly.

Chances are, I am winning now. AQo, TT, 99, 88, is ahead of almost everything my opponents are likely to hold. This could change radically on the flop. I am all that is standing between these players and the opportunity to outflop me. They want to see the flop and have committed one bet. After the flop, they will KNOW they hit or didn't hit, and if I get a flop I like (all undercards to my pair, pair my Q or A, or trips...etc) it will be harder to get them to pay me for it.

So since I think I have the best hand, and the majority of the time that's about to change, they are BY ALL THAT'S HOLY GOING TO PAY ME to see the flop. Seeing the flop is a privilege and they're going to cough up another SB out of their pockets so I get paid off big when I like the flop.

Am I a lunatic?

I think that 99,1010,AQo, and probably A10s are close hands for raising from the blinds (I think JJ is a clear raise). They are difficult to play OOP b/c there are a lot of flops that they don't like. And playing them poorly postflop could easily overwhelm your preflop +EV edge.

I think there are several important considerations

1) The quality of the hands you think people are limping with. SSHE assumes that the really bad loose passives are limping with any 2. If the limpers are really bad +60-70% VPIPs you have to raise b/c your equity edge is too great. If they are more selective with the hands they play, you may not have as much of an edge so not raising may not be a mistake.

2) Quality/predictabilty of your opponents postflop play. If you are against looser/worse opponents a raise makes more sense, as it likely ties them to a pot with a hand that is drawing thin. For example if you flop a set or an overpair they are more likely to call you down with one overcard or a low pair. Similarly, if you can respect the bets/raises of your opponents when overcards hit, you can get away from these hands more easily post flop. But if you don't think you can outplay your oppoents postflop, not raising may not be mistake.

3) The size of the field. If you are against 2-3 limpers, you are likely raising with 99, 1010, JJ, and one pair is likely to win. If one or no overcards come up you bet aggressively on the flop and turn, and get away from it if a passive oppoenent shows strength. It sucks when you have JJ and the flop is board is k72510 and someone calls you down with k4, but oh well. I do think that if you get two callers on the turn I usually am check/folding the river, b/c at least one of them likely paired up

If you are against a larger field 5-6, you have to realize that your overpair is much less likely to hold up. It still will sometimes, and you will make a ton when you hit a set, so the raise is still for value. You just don't want to put in a ton of bets post flop unless you likely have the best hand.

[Hojglad]

My winrate with 99 is about 58%. I'm raising it from the BB every single time. My winrate with TT is slightly higher. There is no reason to ever not raise these cards in an unraised pot. You have an enormous equity advantage over all the other crap out there. Make the pot enormous and then flop a set.

[VoraciousReader]

[ QUOTE ]
Make the pot enormous and then flop a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or just flop the quads, like Eeegah. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

(Can you tell I'm off work with nothing particular to do today?)

[fire_fly]

[ QUOTE ]
So since I think I have the best hand, and the majority of the time that's about to change, they are BY ALL THAT'S HOLY GOING TO PAY ME to see the flop. Seeing the flop is a privilege and they're going to cough up another SB out of their pockets so I get paid off big when I like the flop.



[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are definately crazy.

lol, jk, yeah, I guess that's a good way to put it.

Also, the person who said something to the effect of you will win 25% of the time against 4 or 5 opponents and therefore makes it right to raise because of pot equity even though you will be losing more often than not... yeah, I get ya, maybe that's what's making it hard to raise. I know I'm going to be losing a lot of these hands,but should still be raising because I'll still win more than my fair shair .

Tough concept (especially when in a big slump) for me but gotta do it I guess.

[Russ McGinley]

Raise for value and make all these limpers pay while you still have the best hand. What if the flop comes T-9-9? 8-3-2? Even flops like K-4-2 aren't always kill flops for your hand.