How bad was this move?

[Tommy The Tuna]

Playin a local shorthanded tournament last weekend. Down to the final 3 (top 2 split pot 60/40). There are $9,000 in chips in play. I have about $3,000. Chip leader about $5,000. Other guy just hangin on with about $1,000. Blinds are up to 500/1000. I'm on the BB with 6 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/club.gif button (chip leader) limps. SB folds. Flop hits 2 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 6 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif I've got top pair with lousy kicker and a long shot straight. I put the button on a busted hand and I wanna put him out and steal the blinds to try and get chip even with him. So I go all-in. The SOB calls me. We turn over and he has 6 /forums/images/icons/club.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif I'm psyched! Only card that beats me is a 7. Turn hits 7 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif Mother*&%$er! Puts me on an open ended straight that of course misses on the river. Did I overplay this hand badly? Was I tryin too hard to make up some chips? Should I have just limped along waiting for the other guy with the small stack to get eaten up by the blinds? I feel I overplayed it and wanted to see what others thought. Thanks for any input!

Good Luck! Play Well!

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I'll only say one thing. The third guy was ONE HAND AWAY from being out. Get yourself in the money first, then make your play. You'll have a lot of chances heads-up.

[Joe Tall]

I actually think your thought process was correct. A total rag flop, if you checked, he most likely would have raised here, then what? However, you were heads up a loose player who also had the chip lead...but seeing that he limped I thought he had JTo, QJo or Axs, Kxs. Not such a low unsuited connector. Bad beat Tuna, sorry.

It was a good play (especially since you put ME in the money! /forums/images/icons/wink.gif )

[Greg (FossilMan)]

The thing here is to do the math.

If you check and fold, you have 2500 in chips. Third has 500, and leader has 6000. You have a 5/18 chance of winning, and about a 11/18 of second. With prizes of 60 and 40, this chip count gives you an equity of about 41.

If you go all-in and win immediately, you have 5000 to 3500 to 500. That's about 10/18 to win, and 7/18 to finish 2nd. Equity of about 49.

If you go all-in and win after he calls, you have 6500 to 2000 to 500. Equity of about 53.

If you go all-in and lose, equity is 0.

If you check and it gets checked down, you win 2500 somewhere between 25% and 75% of the time. It's pretty hard to pin this one down, however. What's even harder is how often the opponent will check it down, whether they've made a hand or not. In any event, your equity here is clearly somewhere between 41 and 49, since you won't call a bet if it is made, unless your hand improves to two pair or better, maybe.

Estimate the likelihoods of each event, multiply by it's equity, and the correct decision should be apparent.

Sometimes it's easier to work backwards like this, as sometimes the correct play is very clear once you see the numbers for the upside and downside of each decision.