floping a set

[MycroftX]

When holding a pocket pair, what are the odds hitting a third card on the flop?

thanks.

[Pov]

The odds against flopping a set *or better* with a pocket pair are 7.5:1. The odds of having a set or better by the river are 4.2:1 against.

[ackid]

I think its about 11% to hit a pp on the flop. Cant anyone else agree on this figure in terms of percent?

[Pov]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its about 11% to hit a pp on the flop. Cant anyone else agree on this figure in terms of percent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, 7.5:1 converts to 11.8%. There's a 10.8% chance you hit a set, a .74% chance you flop a boat and a .25% chance you flop quads.

But percentages aren't very useful in poker when compared to odds. 5 bets in, 1 bet to me and I know I'm getting 5:1. Knowing you'll hit your set or better 11.8% of the time doesn't really help you here, but knowing the odds does. I know I'm taking a 5:1 bet on a 7.5:1 dog so I need to make up 2.5 small bets in implied odds when I hit - which should be very possible which makes this a call. You *can* arrive at a call from the percentages too, but it's not nearly as easy.

[AKQJ10]

If you're used to mentally converting between percentages and fractions -- 11.8% is just under 12.5%, so my probability of hitting is just under 1/8 -- then it's not too bad. I need to win a pot that, including my original call (but not my future bets), has over 8 units in it. Practically the same thing.

But for people who find that kind of conversion difficult, there's no reason not to use either the fractional probability or the odds, and convention is to use the odds.