JJ turned set and donked

[peterchi]

10/20 Live at Greektown
Brand new game so no reads, the game seems tight-passive so far but it's only the second orbit so I really don't know yet.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero...

Easy raise, or just call down?
If I should raise, what's my line if he 3-bets?

[Kevroc]

the third club prolly hit him and he doesnt want to miss a bet... call down except if board pairs...

I think the most likely reason for BB to bet on the turn is the flush. KJ is highly unlikely since you have all the J's but one, so I guess its either one high /images/graemlins/club.gif or a made flush.

We would have to call a 3-bet due to the redraw.

An argument for raising is obviously to make A /images/graemlins/club.gif and Q /images/graemlins/club.gif pay, but since you get 1 bet when ahead and loose two more (minus the times we boat up) when behind, I call.

Is that too weak?

[TemetNosce]

Easy raise. You are heads-up and it's possible the BB is making a move here.

If BB has the nut flush, he/she would normally try a check-raise on the turn or river. If BB has a non-nut flush, they will likely just call your turn raise.

If you do get 3-bet, just call and try to fill up on the river, you have 3.6:1 odds of hitting a boat or quads on the river.

If BB just calls your turn raise and if you don't fill on the river and BB checks, you probably should check behind. Most hands that would call a river bet here are ones that beat you.

If you were 3-bet and don't improve and BB bets the river, you can consider folding because you are likely beaten.

I agree with you that BB might be making many moves here, since its HU, I kinda ignored that in my post.
But given its heads up, it is also less likely that BB will only call a raise with a lesser flush.

If he is making a pure bluff without a /images/graemlins/club.gif, isn't he likely to fold to a raise, but bet the river if called?
Or is your point mainly that he is most likely to be betting a lone /images/graemlins/club.gif, making it necessary for us to charge him the maximum for his draw?

[Kevroc]

if it was HU from the PF action onward then I might go with that line but, it was multiway until the flop so I think that increases the chance of clubs.

Also, I dont think going for the c/r with the nut flush is automatic. No reads at the table, possibly Tight Passive... thats might add up to leaning out so as not to miss a bet.

[TemetNosce]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I dont think going for the c/r with the nut flush is automatic. No reads at the table, possibly Tight Passive... thats might add up to leaning out so as not to miss a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, it's not automatic that a c/r would occur. Nothing is automatic with little reads on this player.

My thinking is that most opponents are going to put you (the OP) on AK or a big pair and are going to check-raise with their flush because you (the OP) are going to follow through with a turn bet here with your AK or big pair, even with 3 clubs on board.

[TemetNosce]

If he does not have the A /images/graemlins/club.gif and folds to a raise, that's fine by me. That is better than letting him draw out on us with something like the Q /images/graemlins/club.gif (or worse). If he does have the A /images/graemlins/club.gif (or worse), then we charge him to draw when we are ahead. It's not a certainty for him to bet the river again if we call him on the turn and he misses on the river and will likely fold to our bet if he missed. If that happens, we miss a bet.

Even though it's heads-up, a lesser flush may not 3-bet the turn if we raise here. There are preflop raising hands that could have it beat (e.g., A /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif), so it's not an automatic 3-bet for the typical player. If you bet a non-nut flush into a 3-flush board and get raised, you have to believe that there is a reasonable chance that you are up against the nut flush and should slow down.

My main point is that there are a lot of hands that we are ahead of and that the typical player will c/r if they have a flush. It's also possible that the BB has now made 2 pair (KJ). It's also possible that he has a smaller set of 6s or 8s and was planning on c/r the turn until the third club came and is trying to use it as a scare card and to see where he is with those hands. I do see that play quite a bit.

There are a lot of hands that you are ahead of here. And you have 10 outs to improve, if needed.

[TaintedRogue]

[ QUOTE ]
10/20 Live at Greektown
Brand new game so no reads, the game seems tight-passive so far but it's only the second orbit so I really don't know yet.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero...

Easy raise, or just call down?
If I should raise, what's my line if he 3-bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is bluffin with a flush draw, you lose 1 bet if the river is a non-club. If he has two pair and you just call and another club comes on the river, you lose bets possibly.
I tend to lose a lot of $$ with my sets when I'm beat. I raise the turn and if re-raised, ck/call the river if I don't build a boat against his flush.

[peterchi]

I think you are right.

My thoughts at the time were that I definitely wanted to get to showdown, and I didn't want to pay 4 bets to do so. So I just called down.

I think that's too weak, and that I really do need to raise this turn.

[peterchi]

[ QUOTE ]
It's also possible that he has a smaller set of 6s or 8s and was planning on c/r the turn until the third club came and is trying to use it as a scare card and to see where he is with those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ding Ding Ding

He showed pocket 8s and mhig.

[Bodhi]

Easy raise. If he 3-bets, you call and showdown. This sort of donk-bet is usually a bluff, as a lot of bad players rigidly check-raise their good hands and bet out with weak hands. Of course, if you fill up on the river you should cap it if given the opportunity.

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
I tend not to lose enough $$ with my sets when I'm beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Bodhi]

I hope you raised the turn.

[TaintedRogue]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I tend not to lose enough $$ with my sets when I'm beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I was saying was my ballz aren't going to shrink in this situation. I'm going to raise that turn and call the reraise and call a river bet, even with a 4th club. People are not going to step on me in this situation and it's a good one for my opponent to make a move on.

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that's too weak, and that I really do need to raise this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without reading other replies:

My first thought was fold. Then I realized I totally miscounted outs vs. pot size. Not having any real reads, he has 10 outs, right (or am I off somehow?) He's getting 5 to 1 to call and only needs 3.6. Therefore, I'd say it's well worth the raise.

EDIT: After reading everyone's replies, it looks like I actually came up with the right answer, however, was my reasoning correct? ...and math?

[TheHammer24]

Wow, automatic raise here. Calling down would be absurdly weak tight.

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, automatic raise here. Calling down would be absurdly weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

see above.

[W. Deranged]

Raise.

Think about it this way: How often, if you are a relatively generic not that sophisticated live low/mid limit player are you donk-betting a perfect flush card on the flop in a heads-up pot? How often are you not betting/raising with a flush draw on the flop?

This is not easy hand-reading, but I also don't think it's particularly tough hand reading. With flush draws in small and/or short-handed pots, most players at these levels will:

1. Get some money in on the flop in some fashion.

2. Try to get more money in when they hit, usually by check-raising the turn.

A donk-bet on a flush card here is usually, in my experience, more likely to represent someone who is *afraid* of the flush card than one who is thrilled by it. A donk-bet here is more likely to come from someone afraid of the turn getting checked through because of the flush potential, rather than from someone who is afraid of missing a bet on the turn. In a heads-up pot, your opponent is expecting you to bet the good big card/big pair hand you are representing.

Raising now is better than waiting to a later street because:

1. A fourth club may either kill you or kill your action on the river.

2. Someone who might be betting a draw (not the most often occurance, but happens) will pay now but not later.