KK cap pf, flop set. wow i really messed this one up

[csuf_gambler]

i don't know wtf im doing anymore. i really fuked this one up.

this was from tonight. i get KK and raise, villian reraises, i cap. heads up to flop. villian is 8/2. so i thought fur sure villians reraising range had to be at least QQ,KK,AA, and maybe AK. i think im relying too much on the GT numbers

so i flop a set and decide to slowplay. then turn is an ace which is the last card i wanted to see. i decide to c/r anyways. i get 3 betted so i thought to myself fuk this guy must have AA. AK entered my mind also but i didnt think so. then on the river i thought long and hard, and for some reason i decide to donk bet.

if this were anyone else i would have capped the turn and kept pounding away. but since this guy was 8/2 i got a little passive. like i said, i think im putting too much thought into the numbers. i think i missed at least 2 bets in this hand.

someone please help me.

Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (11.66 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Final Pot: 13.66 BB

</font>

[Dariel86]

You should have been putting in as many raises as possible on that flop

[pokergrader]

[ QUOTE ]
You should have been putting in as many raises as possible on that flop/turn/river

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you use the flop to set up the turn CR.
Sometimes thats good, but here you should have gone as far as possible on the flop.
A missed flushdraw might not bet again the turn, which would be horrible with your line.
Some two-pairs or a smaller sets might go crazy on both flop and turn, which means you miss bets using your line.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you use the flop to set up the turn CR.
Sometimes thats good, but here you should have gone as far as possible on the flop.
A missed flushdraw might not bet again the turn, which would be horrible with your line.
Some two-pairs or a smaller sets might go crazy on both flop and turn, which means you miss bets using your line.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to forget that the guy was 8/2, which is extremely tight and passive preflop. Therefore, a flush draw is unlikely (since the K on the flop was a spade, ruling out AK /images/graemlins/spade.gif), and a smaller set is also very unlikely, and a two pair practically impossible.

It's obvious the guy either has AK or AA. Perhaps QQ after just seeing the flop, betting after the check, but the guy would probably be worried about 'csuf' having a K in that case.

If the guy is passive postflop also, and if you at the same time are certain he has AK or AA, then a slowplay on the flop is perhaps not a bad idea, not scaring him away on the later streets. If you cap on the flop, then perhaps he gets scared of you having two pair/set and then just calls it down. But if you slowplay the flop you really have to start collecting some bets on the turn and river, perhaps slowing down on the river if he caps the turn (which was an ace), just in case he has AA. Remember, based on hand distribution, AA is just as likely as AK after the turn.

My thoughts here are of course based on the fact that he is so passive preflop that TT is not a likely hand for him to have. If TT was in his hand range, than a more aggressive postflop is warranted, just in case he has just that.

Oops - I somehow missed that. If he is 8/2 over a reasonable sample size, I agree a flushdraw is highly unlikely given his 3 bet.

I dont think we narrow him down to AK or AA early though, even a very tight player would still 3-bet QQ - 99 and possibly AQs agaist a lone raiser. Since hero was first in, he might raise a lot of hands he would otherwise call, and the 3-betting range for the villain should therefore be wider if he has a hand that works well HU. Or is my thinking somehow flawed here?

The flop bet tells us nothing, since hero checked.

We dont really get any valid information between the pf 3-bet and the turn 3-bet, since hero checks. At the latter point, I think AA,AK and TT are equally likely (3 ways to make each, which puts us ahead at least 2/3 of the time).

All i all: I realize he is very unlikely to be betting a flush draw, but I still vote for going as far as possible on the flop.

You have a point there about the HU thing, but since he is so passive, I still don't see him reraising with TT preflop, so I really don't believe it.

The flop bet tells us nothing, that is correct, but it's also not that important considering the strength of hero's hand.

AQs is an option, but if he does have that (or QQ), aggression on the flop will make villain either fold immediately or on the turn (except of course for the turned A), so in that case a slowplay is ok. And even if villain does have AA or AK, it's just a pair and if he's passive postflop too, he could get afraid of hero having a really strong hand like a set or just two pair.

I think a slowplay is ok in this situation, planning to collect more on the more expensive later streets. I'm not ruling out the aggressive option on the flop though; just considering the alternatives.

And I still don't think villain has TT /images/graemlins/smile.gif


Just realized that we are almost neighbours Yentz, Copenhagen are not that far from Landskrona /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Well - I guess I still bet/raise the flop, but you argue well for the slowplay alternative :-)

Good luck at the tables!