I feel like a loser - newbie questions

[Webster]

After having great success in Hold'm for 5 years I'm now playing LO8. I've read books - sites and so forth and understand the concept.

In my 1400 hands I VPIP 17% and know all 4 cards need to work and when to fold. (normally)

My question is this. in 280 hands last night won one pot scooped and 5 others all quartered. and lost about $70 in 1/2.

HOWEVER - the tables were ALWAYS 50%+ VPIP and SO MANY pots were won by bad hands. Are these loose players better post flop? Am I folding to much? I never hit a flush, straight, boat or any real hand that I was woring on. I always had backups that missed also. Never won a low hand with repeated A2s.

Is this just varience and a bad night? Or could I have a tremendous leak in my tight play the nuts game.

Are there stats I could quote that would be telling???

Typical hand - bad fold? how should I have played this.

Party Poker (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero folds, SB folds, BB folds.

River: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot:

[spaminator101]

I play much looser than that. Don't play much LO8 but when I do i play rather loose. I would see at least 1/4 of the flops.

[sy_or_bust]

"Much" looser than VP$IP 17 would be a pretty large mistake in most online games.

[bodie]

Hi Webster,

I wouldn't fold when you could have checked (?) That was what I couldn't understand - you had two pair, weak but if no one is betting, you might as well stay in until someone does.

Regarding your question about "so many pots being won by bad hands". Can you give an example of a few of the bad hands which won? Sometimes, after you've been playing for a while,you can get a feeling regarding your opponents as to which hands might be more playable, and play a little looser than you would against other players. On the other hand, it's also possible to go for a long streak where nothing works out....went through that myself the last couple of days playing live: I got dealt great starting hands and then had to watch the board not match them, and fold.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
....and know all 4 cards need to work....

[/ QUOTE ]

Webster - Well... I think that's sort of misleading.

6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif is a hand with all four cards working nicely together, yet it's really not a very good starting hand for Omaha-8.

A much better rule for you to follow, in my humble opinion, is to avoid starting hands with middle cards (sixes, sevens, eights, and nines). If you have three other cards that look very good, for example A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, or A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, then if you also have 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif - a card that doesn't fit with any of the other cards to make a low, straight, or flush - then you're going to play the hand. Or there are some even less favorable hands that might have a middle card or two that are playable - but for the most part, you want to try to avoid hands with middle cards. Avoiding starting hands with middle cards is a <font color="red">major</font> concept, much more important that worrying about all four cards working together.

[ QUOTE ]
HOWEVER - the tables were ALWAYS 50%+ VPIP and SO MANY pots were won by bad hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what VPIP means. If you mean over half of the players usually saw the flop, then that seems normal or typical to me.

I don't think there are any "bad" hands that win pots. There are different styles of play, and I don't think there is only one style of play that is successful. Some individuals are able to change gears and switch styles of play, and make various styles of play work for them.

I might see 50% of the flops. Or I might not. Whether I do or not depends on my opponents more than on my cards, but it also depends on the cards I am dealt. 50% is probably on the high side for me, except on the button, but is not far-fetched.

[ QUOTE ]
Are these loose players better post flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say. I guess you're implying they don't play well pre-flop because they play too many hands. Is that what you mean?

Does that mean if I see the flop more often than you somehow think I should, I'm not playing very well pre-flop?

Gee. Maybe you're right.

At any rate, to try to answer your question, I guess they either play very well post-flop or are simply lucky. Or maybe they're lucky and also good players. Very hard to tell after one playing session.

[ QUOTE ]
Am I folding to much?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say. Depends on your cards, the board, and your opponents.

[ QUOTE ]
I never hit a flush, straight, boat or any real hand that I was woring on.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a bummer. I've been there myself.

I don't play well when I get depressed about the game. Better for me to quit the game and take a nap (or do something else for a while until I get over being depressed). It can happen to anyone.

[ QUOTE ]
I always had backups that missed also. Never won a low hand with repeated A2s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bummer.

[ QUOTE ]
Is this just varience and a bad night?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to say. Could be simply a run of bad luck for an evening. However, you shouldn't have bad night after bad night. If you do, then I think there's probably something wrong with your play.

[ QUOTE ]
Or could I have a tremendous leak in my tight play the nuts game.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's not much of a leak you can have in a "tight play the nuts game." That's the safest way to play.

But what a dreadful way to play, once you get past the beginner stage!

[ QUOTE ]
Are there stats I could quote that would be telling???

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of the other people who post here could tell you better than I.

About the hand you posted:
1st betting round: You don't have good position, but you do have a nice starting hand, good enough to see the flop from middle position. You limp. Fine. There are some who probably think you should raise with your very fine starting cards but I'm not one of them.

2nd betting round: The flop is horrid for you. Bottom two pair is not good, you don't have a flush or flush draw, and your nice low starting cards are almost completely counterfeited. Someone else will probably win for low and if a miracle happens and you do win for high, you'll have to split the pot. Everybody checks and so do you. Fine. The danger here is thinking because everybody has checked you might steal this pot. Get those thoughts out of your head. You have no realistic chance of stealing the pot with two low cards on the flop. Period.

3rd betting round: Okay, now you have made three pairs, including aces. Looks more promising, even though low is now possible. Forget what I wrote on the previous betting round. It's a whole new ball game. (Happens like that in Omaha-8 sometimes).

I'd call a single bet here, although I wouldn't like doing so. With checks to me I'd probably bet myself. I much prefer betting to calling. You could get burned by someone who was holding a three and a four.

The probability one of these eight opponents was dealt a hand that included a three and a four is almost 3/5 - but there are only four opponents who saw this flop, and three-four is not as favored a two-card combination as many others. Tight players might have been dealt this and folded it before the flop.

If all eight of your opponents here treated a three-four card combination like random cards, neither favoring noe disfavoring it, then with four opponents seeing the flop, there would be about a 30% probability one or more of them held a three-four combination. But I think it's more favored than random cards. Might be a forty or fifty per cent probability an opponent who is still active holds it. Hard to say for sure.

Two opponents yet to act behind you. Two opponents have already checked but one of them might be trapping. Hard to say for sure. I'm guessing there's maybe one chance in three one of them has made the wheel. And everybody who doesn't hold the three-four combination has to be wary that anyone betting does have it.

Hmm.... I don't know.....

I might take a flyer here. If anybody calls, you have to wonder if they have a set or if they actually have the wheel and are slow playing it - or if they're completely ignorant of the chances of anyone having a wheel and simply don't trust you when you bet.

At any rate I'd give serious consideration to semi-bluffing here. (It's a semi-bluff, because you have a six out draw to a full house).

What?! Two checks and you fold?!

I wasn't reading ahead. I was writing my thoughts as I read. All that reasoning (by me) and you folded?!

But why would you fold when there's no bet?

Oh well, if you're looking for where you might have made a mistake in the play of the hand, I'd say you made one when you folded to no bet on the third betting round.

I'm wondering how you would not know on your own, without someone telling you, that you made a mistake in folding to no bet when you held three pairs with one card yet to come. I'm wondering if this is your way of playing a joke on us.

Buzz

[Webster]

Before I read more - I did not fold when I could have checked - bisons has it wrong (again). It's 2 for 2 on getting a posted hand wrong and I don't trust it anymore as it is butchering hold'm hands also.

[hachkc]

It looks like the HH is incomplete. Notice that UTG and UTG+1 were not referenced at the turn but the Hero, SB and BB all folded when it appears the UTG bet and UTG+1 called.

[Mr_J]

Buzz, VPIP is a pokertracker term, it's the % that the player voluntarily put money in the pot preflop.

"Could be simply a run of bad luck for an evening"

FWIW the other night I dropped 50bb over 700 cards. My VPIP was only at 10% meaning I was card dry, and my aggression numbers were way down which supports my feeling that I just kept missing &amp; getting counterfeited. The fact I didn't have playerview open (can't be bothered at .5/1) and that I wasn't paying much attention to the table didn't help.

I also dropped around 80bb (although playing very aggressively) earlier on in the year (was still +ev after that!!!).

Ok I'm not a good player, but those bad runs weren't my fault lol.

[Webster]

Yea - I THINK that was it. I know that Standard Deviation is lower then it is in Hold'm so I was expecting to not win moch and not lose much.

Still - losing -5.57BB/100 in 200+ hands was rather a wake up call when I KNOW I was playing good cards and never hitting.

It was not the losing that was killing me - but the not WINNING to cover my small losses.

[Mr_J]

"Yea - I THINK that was it. I know that Standard Deviation is lower then it is in Hold'm so I was expecting to not win moch and not lose much."

Depends how aggressively you are playing. Cutting down preflop raising &amp; betting with draws would lower variance alot, and according to zee/cappelletti doesn't give up much EV. Some of the aggressive moves/concepts like promo raises, knocking out hands you'd split with etc probally don't work nearly as well at low limits while they probally increase variance alot. Any thoughts??

[PokerCat69]

low limit players are bad and many stay with their hand too far. This is overall +EV but it can easily result in sessions from hell where your outdrawn all the time.
It doesn't matter how premium your starting hand is, if 5 guys are going to showdown anything can happen.

[Mendacious]

That's L08 for you! I learned that game long before learnign about PL08 and I was a moderately profitable player, but it is easy to play hundreds of hands and experience EXACTLY what you are describing.

I prefer PLO8 because even at the lowest levels (though much less so than higher levels) you can actually influence the game with your betting. You get A258 suited in PL08 and you can "pot it" pre-flop if you want to, and it just about guarantees you will only have 1 or 2 opponents. When you hit two pair on the flop, you can pot it again-- and probably take it down right there.

Now I'm not saying that those are the right moves at all-- that is a different debate-- but your betting determines you fate ALOT more in PLO8 than in Limit where your hand selection and how the flops come determine practically everything.

[Webster]

Funny thing is that I have skimmed over all the TILT chapters in books and sites. I know what TILT is.

HOWEVER - LO8 is SUCH a game of waiting, WAY more then Hold'm in my short experience that I can see how a TILT can happen. It's not ME not hitting that gets me - it's weeing other completey random hands winning over and over that was bugging me.

A total different mind game this one. After 5 years of hold'm it's feels good to get the juices going again in the brain.

[Mr_J]

Webster, these stats might make you feel better:

Chances of breaking even or worse over 1000 hands (1 day of 4tabling, 5hrs) for a player who hits:
1bb/100 41%
2bb/100 33%
3bb/100 25%
4bb/100 18%
5bb/100 13%

So a 3bb/100 player will profit 3 out of every 4 days. That's pretty damn good.

For a week (4tabling, 35hrs):
1bb/100 28%
2bb/100 12%
3bb/100 3.6%
4bb/100 0.8%
5bb/100 0.14%

So a 3bb/100 player will breakeven or worse less than 2 weeks a year.

This was using a standard deviation of 14bb/100. On the other thread that I started peoples SD ranged from around 11 to 16.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
VPIP is a pokertracker term, it's the % that the player voluntarily put money in the pot preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Mr. J.

[spaminator101]

Well i don't suppose that 25% is too much of a jump.

[HopeydaFish]

[ QUOTE ]
"Much" looser than VP$IP 17 would be a pretty large mistake in most online games.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's fine for HE, but I thought that Omaha8 tends to be a little looser. I've seen the 25% number quoted on many ocassions.