Are you pondering what I'm pondering? CFB Wk1 3-1 +2.9 units

[TRWIII]

Good weekend so far, just a last second field goal by Clemson ruining a perfect weekend.

What I'm pondering for Monday night:

FSU +3 over Miami +106

and the under 40 @ -108

Throw the stats out the window as far as offense goes. The GT/Auburn game showed us what happens when inexperienced QB's meet good defenses, and both tags apply to both teams. The under 40 looks real good.

As far as the line goes, FSU is a very good program as far as breaking in new QBs go (the last 12 QB's won their debut). Its not entirely relevant, but its interesting.

What is relevant, however, is that the FSU running defense is demonstrably better than Miami's and Miami will need to succeed with the run in order to win this game.

What this means to me, is that FSU will rely on pounding the rock to win this game and take as much pressure off their new QB as possible. Miami, on the other hand, should find establishing a strong running game difficult, and therefore must rely on their new QB to pull them through. That could be a recipe for disaster.

All in all, this looks to be a close defensive struggle with low scores all around. FSU likely wins outright due to home field and superior run defense, but should cover regardless.

Just pondering....

TRWIII

[primetimenole]

[ QUOTE ]


What is relevant, however, is that the FSU running defense is demonstrably better than Miami's

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a big FSU fan and this is simply not true. Maybe it was last year, but now UM's DL is considerably better than FSU's. FSU lost their top 3 DT's from last year - 2 to the NFL and one to grades in the offseason. Our DE play is questionable as well. That being said, even with our outstanding LB core, our front 7 on D cannot match UM's.

However, if I were to make a play on the game I would probably take FSU. IMO, this game is a toss-up with the new QB's for both teams. The most important single matchup in the game will be FSU's OL against UM's DL.

The best bet on the game in my opinion is the ML with FSU +150. FSU will win this game often enough to make that a profitable bet.

By the way, I am 4-2 ATS this year +2.6 units but am not betting on the game because I don't like to bet my own team.

[stillbr]

I am new to sports betting. Will someone explain to me what CFB Wk1 3-1 +2.9 units means. Thanks

[TRWIII]

CFB WK1 3-1 +2.9 units:

College Football Week #1
Im 3-1 year to date and up 2.9 betting units. the fraction comes from the fact that you wager 1.1 units to win 1.

TRWIII

[TRWIII]

Good news and bad news. Good news is both of my bets won, but the bad news is that I sat through that game.

That has to be in serious contention for the ugliest game of college football in the modern history of the sport. Neither one of these teams should be ranked if that represented their A-game. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Oh well.

TRWIII

[tang]

Good call on this one. Your analysis was spot on and you made us both money!

[WackityWhiz]

excellent stuff, I look forward to future analysis from you.