How to adjust pre-flop strategy to reduce variance

[uclaguy]

Does anybody have some good ideas on how to adjust pre-flop strategy to reduce variance?

For instance, despite Lee Jones' book I no longer raise with JJ or TT. In my extremely loose-passive game, no raise will chase out a single ace or king (or often queen). The chance of overcards is just too great with these hands, and though my pair might still be best, I can't play it with any confidence. It seems like I almost always need to hit my set to win. Is this wise?

There is little raising pre-flop in my game, so I usually limp in with Axs and small pairs regardless of position, and after a couple callers, Kxs and small suited connectors. Should I tighten up in early position?

I no longer chase with gutshot draws, or backdoor flush draws with overcards. Though the pot is usually huge, these hands just connect too infrequently to risk the added variance to my small bankroll. Are there any other similar adjustments I should make?

In High-Low Split Poker, Ray Zee writes, "you might have a slightly larger expectation by putting in more money early with some of your better hands, but this approach also may increase your fluctuations as much as threefold." How well does this translate to Texas Hold'em? Clearly AA and KK are huge hands that need to be raised. But are other big hands so dominant that not raising, in order to reduce variance, is a serious mistake?

Sorry for writing a book here, but I'd really appreciate any response to any of my questions, or just general comments on variance and how certain plays affect it. Thanks guys.

[Ed Miller]

Realize that all these adjustments you are making to "reduce variance" are all compromises you make on your bottom line EV. I'm assuming you are playing in low limit games if you are so concerned about your bankroll... and in these games, if you don't use preflop raises to punish your opponents for playing poor hands, then you will lose a lot of your edge. Furthermore, you need more edge in these games because the rake is proportionally higher.

There is little raising pre-flop in my game, so I usually limp in with Axs and small pairs regardless of position, and after a couple callers, Kxs and small suited connectors. Should I tighten up in early position?

My suggestion is that, since you are so worried about variance, you stop playing marginal hands like Kxs and 65s and use the bet that you didn't waste on that marginal trash to raise with JJ. There's nothing wrong with tightening up a little if you are worried about your bankroll... there is something wrong with playing like a wet noodle.

In High-Low Split Poker, Ray Zee writes, "you might have a slightly larger expectation by putting in more money early with some of your better hands, but this approach also may increase your fluctuations as much as threefold." How well does this translate to Texas Hold'em? Clearly AA and KK are huge hands that need to be raised. But are other big hands so dominant that not raising, in order to reduce variance, is a serious mistake?

This idea does not translate well to Holdem. Preflop hand values work quite differently in O/8 and Holdem. They are really very different games.

I no longer chase with gutshot draws, or backdoor flush draws with overcards. Though the pot is usually huge, these hands just connect too infrequently to risk the added variance to my small bankroll. Are there any other similar adjustments I should make?

Every time you fail to draw to a hand when the pot size dictates that you do so, you lose money. If you do this often enough, you will have no edge at all.

In summary, I have two suggestions for you. Suggestion one is to tighten up some and not play weak hands like Kxs and 76s. Your edge with these hands is small even in the best circumstances. Save those preflop bets and use them to raise with the hands you know should be raised. Suggestion two is to consider moving down in limits so you don't feel so much bankroll pressure. You will never play winning poker if you are constantly worried about where your next bet will come from...

[KDF]

Hey man, You got it all wrong.
--you need to read HPFAP (Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players; Sklansky and Malmuth) part four: loose games.

First of all; curbing variance comes down to playing the right hands in the right situation, the right way. To take your example: Kxs is ONLY good if there is no raise and no chance of a raise; if you are in LP and 4+ others are already in; no chance the blinds will raise, but they will almost definitely call, AND --you know what to do if you only catch a piece of the flop (this is the problem).

For instance: if you have Ks5s in LP and the flop comes Kc9c3h; in an un-raised pot with 4+ people in; someone bets, next player calls, two others fold - what do you do?

Unless you are KNOW this guy bets out with middle pair with a K on the board against 4+ players, then you will almost always fold. Your variance comes from playing this hand wrong- my guess is you would call or raise here. Against loose-passive players, that call -or raise- would be counter-productive and will increase your variance.

Another key is learning your odds and how they really work. Based on what you said, you don’t know your odds or how they work. You need to learn this. A lot of what you said indicates you are need an education in poker. (don’t take it personally—we all were like this at one point)

Read HPFAP- especially part four- loose games. Read it over and over again until you see it working and then you'll get it!

[Lunamondo]

The main way to reduce fluctuations (variance) is to avoid putting much money in with marginal value. If your game has lots of players taking the flop, weather it's raised or not AND they tend to stay there all the way, that means the average winning hand will be much bigger than in mere loose games, and that also says to you how you should adjust to reduce variance.

The first thing is to ask weather a mere top pair has any value in your game; if not, then stop raising with unsuited slick hands - in extremely loose calling station games folding AK unsuited weather it's raised or not might be positive value, and KQ and AJ will be garbage, when unsuited.

On the flop one should avoid any marginal draws that won't make big or strong hands (weak top pair that's kicker is higher than the middle pair, plus possibly one has a three flush, and the flop/turn is not then rich, is a strong hand, as far as it's kicker goes; bottom pairs, preferably middle pairs, prefer overcard kickers - and three flushes), and one should also regularly fold any top pair when the cards on the flop are connected and there is a two flush (only around 1/3 of the time there is no two or three flush on the flop - if one more comes when there is a two flush, you probably lose to a flush, and those flush drawers might make something else also, that makes your top pair much worse, and now if it's combined to a uniform flop, I would be ready to fold on the flop or turn), then one can mostly take the turn for one bet. I am talking about extremely loose games.

You might just play e.g. AQ, T8s, 76s, AXs, late KXs & Q5s, KJ, QJ (to make two pairs, straights/flushes), and 22, and play them very carefully, and don't build pots with unsuited slick hands and small and medium suited connector, nor small pairs, just with XTs, and 66 or better, possibly T9s, J9s, then one is putting money there only to make big scores, and not putting there losts of money to draw to some top pair.

You just see the flop and get out if it's not worth it, this includes the top pairs and even overpairs you have made when the flop is rich, as if you are not dead already, you probably will be.

[togilvie]

In addition to all of the good advice already given, you can reduce variance by being very careful about position. Definitely lose the Axs, Kxs, and other drawing hands from early positions. Restrict your hands in EP dramatically, and play more from the later positions. This way you're able to "see" the hand playing out before committing $$ to the pot.

[Ed Miller]

You might just play e.g. AQ, T8s, 76s, AXs, late KXs & Q5s, KJ, QJ (to make two pairs, straights/flushes), and 22, and play them very carefully, and don't build pots with unsuited slick hands and small and medium suited connector, nor small pairs, just with XTs, and 66 or better, possibly T9s, J9s, then one is putting money there only to make big scores, and not putting there losts of money to draw to some top pair.

The notion that you should fold AJ and KQ, but play KJ, QJ, and Q5s is nonsense. The only accurate thing in this post is that you reduce fluctuations by avoiding marginal value. Q5s is marginal value. AJ is not.

in extremely loose calling station games folding AK unsuited weather it's raised or not might be positive value

This is ridiculous. If you fold AK for one bet in limit Holdem, you will never beat the game.

Honestly, the best way to preserve your bankroll is to increase your winrate. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif