Flopping small top pair out of the BB

[Dagger78]

Villian is Loose-Passive 30/1.2/7 over 200 hands

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (3.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

River: (5.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

I was thinking I'd check the river hoping he'd bet a busted draw here (which in retrospect I realize he isn't going to do). I just didn't think I was getting enough calls from hands I beat to value bet here. Am I ahead 55% of the times he CALLS?

Thoughts please as these marginal river value bets come up often.

[W. Deranged]

First three streets are totally standard here.

I find a value bet on the river, simply because as the hand played out villain is very unlikely to have any kind of really big hand (straights, sets, flushes, and two pair will make themselves known earlier; the presence of the flush draw often induces players to play their hands more aggressively on the early streets). Hence, I think you are up against a draw here a ton of the time. When called, though, you're probably up against some kind of weak one pair hand that will call in an attempt to snap off a bluff from what he thinks is a draw or something. The only thing you're really worried about is opponent turning a Q, but if they were calling down with a big draw they likely had AQ or KQ to start with, which are a bit less likely since they didn't raise pre-flop.

[shark6]

I'd check/call the river as well. Like you said:

1. I can't think of many hands he'd call a bet with that you beat.
2. He may bet a busted draw on the end that you can pick up a bet on.

[Harv72b]

This is exactly how I play it against a normal opponent.

The river check vs. this opponent...

He's passive, so you're not going to get him to bluff with a busted draw too often. In fact, I'd even say that you could make a case for check/fold vs. a loose passive here...he's not going to bet a busted draw, and with the Q coming on the turn he's not going to bet a worse flopped pair. So if he's betting he's probably got either 2 pair, a Q, a straight, or even a baby flopped flush. In that regard, you're better off bet/folding the river vs. him.

While he isn't really that passive, the pot isn't nearly that big, either.

EDIT: I'm assuming you meant 0.7 for his postflop aggression. If it really is 7, then check/call is mandatory.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
they likely had AQ or KQ to start with, which are a bit less likely since they didn't raise pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villian is only raising 1.2% of his hands over a 200 hand sample. It's very possible that he limped AQo, let alone KQo.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check/call the river as well. Like you said:

1. I can't think of many hands he'd call a bet with that you beat.
2. He may bet a busted draw on the end that you can pick up a bet on.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's close, but villain is calling here with hands like A /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 98, etc... often here.

The idea of inducing a bluff is only really good if you have a real reason to believe that villain will bet busted draws often. Many here will tell you that in small stakes games value-betting usually has more value than trying to induce river bluffs because at lower levels players tend to be too loose and too passive (hence likely to call often and not that likely to bet).

This is something that can swing greatly depending on player reads, obviously.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
they likely had AQ or KQ to start with, which are a bit less likely since they didn't raise pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villian is only raising 1.2% of his hands over a 200 hand sample. It's very possible that he limped AQo, let alone KQo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read bad.

Okay, that's true. I don't think it changes the decision. AQ and KQ are possibilities though I'll take my chances. If villain is playing 30% of his hands AQ and KQ don't make up that much of the range.

Against a 10/1.2 type player, I think you could actually argue that this river becomes a check-fold here since the only action your getting on the river is from AQ and KQ type hands that hit the turn. Maybe.