My second HH post - pp 55 TT level 1

Again Eurobet so no HH.

Level 1 second hand, everyone has about 1000 chips. UTG folds, I limp with TT. 6 of us including the blinds see the flop which comes 742 rainbow. Checked to me and I make a slight overbet of 125 into the 90 pot trying to represent a vulnerable low pair or some such garbage.

Next guy calls, next guy raises to 400 and then folded around to me. I push.

Comments?

[unreal_nh]

i would have done pretty much the same thing.. you're surely ahead unless he has an unlikely JJ-AA -- i pay to find out.

[Scuba Chuck]

This seems simple enough:

Let's create a likely Hand range. Since the raiser is two spots after you, I seriously doubt QQ through AA. Therefore, here's the potential hands I see in this situation.

88
99
TT
JJ

7x
56

Let me pick some specific 7x hands. Let's say
A7, 87, 67, 97.

Then of course, there are the possibilities of sets.
77
44
22

Finally, there's also donkeys, but let's not assume them.

I've plugged all these handranges into Pokerstove, and here's the results:

Hand 1: 77.2088 % 76.58% 00.63% { TT }
Hand 2: 22.7912 % 22.16% 00.63% { JJ-77, 44, 22, A7s, 97s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A7o, 97o, 87o, 76o, 65o }


So, essentially, you're a 77% favorite against this range.

It would be nice if we could provide a little more weight to sets, but regardless, I can't imagine it changing the data to a point where you're not at least a 2:1 favorite.

[45suited]

I can't believe I'm disagreeing with Scuba Chuck on both of your hands. Unless these guys are complete donkeys, I would never push here. I'm willing to fold some hands on level 1 that others might push.

Here's what I'm looking at. First, it's an unraised pot. I hate going broke in unraised pots in level 1. Second, there has been a large bet, followed by a call, then a huge raise. This indicates great strength. The board is not draw heavy. What do you think he's making this huge raise with? You're either looking at an overpair or a set IMO. Again, unless they are complete donkeys, the best you can hope for is that you're up against 88 or 99. I really don't see something like A7 here raising to 400 on the flop. I really don't think that the chance that you're ahead is anywhere near where Scuba Chuck calculated. I would fold to the raise and keep an eye on this guy.

I really wouldn't feel horrible about folding, because I really don't think that you are ahead here as much as it might first appear. As Chuck said, since the raise is coming from later position, an overpair seems unlikely. This smells like a set to me. I don't think that this is seeing monsters under the bed, it just doesn't make any sense for the villain to make such a strong move here with anything else given that board.

I think you make some very valid points. I was thinking myself that very important is whether these guys are donkeys or not. If I'm up against some of the solid multi-tablers I play with every day then I'm much more likely to fold. These guys were strangers to me though.

I'd love to hear some more thoughts as this is a situation that comes up quite often.

I gotta go now but I will be back to post results in 5 hours or so.

[tom441lbk]

i'm making a smaller bet into that pot, i've been starting to play TT more for set/great board value like this board. I do the same thing, but i lead out with a smaller bet. Once the action starts to unfold like it does, i'm probably mucking this early on and choosing the spot where i'm putting most my chips in myself with a stronger hand.

-Tom

[Scuba Chuck]

45s, while I can't disagree with the primary thought in your logic, which is a) a large bet, followed by a call, and a big raise - showing strength & b) it's early in the tournament, and weak-tight play is generally the better approach, I can't say that I didn't answer OP's question.

I'm pretty certain that I didn't say I'd push, I only answered his question.

Here's the primary dilemma, as I see it. The $55s are very fishy. I have yet to find the competence there any more skilled than the $33s. In fact, in some ways, I find it worse, but that's besides the point. My point is, you will find players there play draws very heavy like this. In fact, IMO, the 400 chip raise could be seen in two ways. A) a completed set. B) another overpair, or C) a drawing bet, with (perceived) correct odds to call a push if he's reraised.

Making an adjustment for this hand range, hero is now only a 52% favorite. With this data, I can definately see folding here, especially with the extra 200 starting chips. I think that with an 800 chip starting stack, that changes the landscape a little. Considering all the dead chips in the middle.

EDIT 2 FIRST POST:
Numbers need to adjust because I forgot to put the rainbow flop in.

Hand 1: 66.3225 % 65.78% 00.54% { TT }
Hand 2: 33.6775 % 33.13% 00.54% { JJ-77, 44, 22, A7s, 97s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A7o, 97o, 87o, 76o, 65o }

Conclusion:
I think this hand plays differently with a 800 stack vs a 1000 stack. I am not always that worried about the flat call with a flop with all those undercards. It could be KQ, QJ, or even 66 for example. Anyway, to 45s about the action, and hero decision. The raise is of interest because it represents one of 3 things. Either villain is trying to protect his weakish hand, or is building the pot, or is on a semi-bluff. Based on our more narrowed hand range, it looks more like it's a coinflip. So, for me, I don't think it's wrong or right to fold or push. It could go either way. So your playing style here decides your decision.

I have given this one considerable thought and completely agree with what 45suited said - FOLD. I've spewed many chips here in analogous situations against one villain which is a more debatable situation but here one villain has cold called my overbet and another has raised to 400 which is perhaps even scarier then a push, what can I possibly put these guys on that I can beat? Like 45suited said, the only hands that make sense that I beat are 88 and 99 and there's lots more that beats me.

My biggest mistake here was not pushing the flop but that fact that I stopped thinking! When I saw the flop I was already pot-committed in my mind thinking yumyum overpair lets party and I did not re-evaluate after the post-flop action like I should have.

If I could do this over again (and I will I'm sure) I would fold. The flop caller could have anything but the raise to 400? A bet and cold call of 125 into a 90 pot and he raises to 400 is a very strong play and I now think I am behind here better than 90% of the time.

OK ok results ... both villains called, the first caller showed QQ, the 400 raiser had 74 for 2 pair.

The best part is that I even got paid for this lesson as the river came a T for a happy ending, been a while since I had a 3000+ stack after 2 hands. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

BTW, anyone raise this preflop? I know, I know TT is a b..ch postflop but with 6 seeing the flop it's even trickier. Anyone?