Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.

[Eeegah]

I meant that. This hand will make you vomit. Don't say I didn't warn you.

I have only 30 hands on the guy and he's statistically a LAG, but in thta time he's won twice with AKo and once with KQo so he's probably more running hot than truly laggy. He's aggro postflop, but again the cards are running over him so it's hard to make a judgement.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (14.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

You can throw up now. Pax paid me to say that he was infuriated by this; hell I was so pissed at myself I left the table immideately afterwards convinced that I was tilting.

Three hours of brooding over it, however, is starting to push it towards at best an EV-neutral situation. The guy capped preflop, and at least on Stars that generally means strictly AA-JJ or AK. AK is unlikely since there's no reason for him to raise the turn. If I can actually narrow him down to strictly AA-JJ then, suprisingly enough, I can't call: My only hope is to split, so after the 15BB rake I'm looking at 10:1 odds of getting money, while the pot odds are only about 1:7.6.

And yet my stomach is still heaving: I know this is a bad fold. So what's making up the difference? Would you expect to see AQs often enough here? I hardly ever see a capped AQs here (and the villain didn't cap with AKo earlier FWIW), so it would be awfully surprising to see; AJs even moreso. What am I missing here? Why is this a call?

[Paxosmotic]

For me, it all boils down to what kind of range we can narrow villain down to.

-Super Tight/Passive (AA-JJ) - 5% equity FOLD
-Tight/Aggressive way too excited about top pair (AA-JJ,AQs) - 13.6% equity CALL
-Semi Loose/Aggressive way too excited about being in the hand (JJ+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo) - 50% equity EASY CALL

Really the only way I can get away from this is if I know villain only plays AA-JJ like this, and I just don't have that kind of read on him. I think we'll see a misguided AQ, AJ, or worse here enough to call.

[Swax]

I know that I would call - however, you do raise some valid points, and my call might just curiousity talking (and because over the last three weeks I've been playing at the Hustler where I'd win a bonus for having my aces cracked - lol).

That being said - i'd be hard pressed to think that aces aren't good one in sixteen...with only 30 hands on villain I don't think that you can rule out him capping with AQs, even if he didn't cap with AKo. Low limit players LUVVVV their suited cards.

Can you let us know what villain had after you get a few reponses?

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you let us know what villain had after you get a few reponses?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately not--I didn't pay a buck to see /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[RandBriscoe]

It's one to me and the pot is big. I call expecting to lose.

[Bradyams]

I think I'd call mostly just to see if he slowplayed a set of queens, got lucky on the turn with JJ, or played KK strange and got lucky on the river (and tell myself that there's a slight chance I might be good here the tiny fraction of the time to make a call).

I'd call the river here just to see what he had. I wouldn't be expecting to win this hand at all though. Maybe it's a leak in my game, but the curiousity at what he had would just eat away at me. So it would definately be worth the $1 just to see.

[LoaferGee12]

That river actually made me lol. No joke. Then again, i'm kinda drunk.

[chiachu]

Im not sure if its +EV to call or not, but for the sake of my sanity, i make this call everytime.

[aK13]

Given your LAG read, I think I call the river.

[ArturiusX]

Don't discount a stupidly played AK or another AA. Call it.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]

I have only 30 hands on the guy and he's statistically a LAG...

[/ QUOTE ]

But you can be ~95% certain that you are beat. Really terrible fold.

Just wanted to add that I often cap preflop with a wider variety of hands when 3-bet by a player who looks like he can do handreading - but relies too much to it. Although I play mainly shorthanded

[toss]

Omg the river wasn't even a heart.

[TwoShedsJackson]

You have to call this.

[TripleH68]

[ QUOTE ]
Omg the river wasn't even a heart.

[/ QUOTE ]

A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif or A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif would be tragic. Eeegah.

[bozlax]

I'm glad my stomach was empty. Better dry heaves at 0630 hours, than full-blown hurling into my keyboard at 0745.

I'm sure it's all been said, but I think you're seeing A/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif or the like here often enough to make this river a call.

[ QUOTE ]
...after the 15BB rake I'm looking at 10:1 odds of getting money, while the pot odds are only about 1:7.6.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

Huh? Unless 'Stars grabs 8BB from the pot once it exceeds 15BB (actually, I suppose 7.9BB), I don't see where these numbers are coming from. Do you mean that calling his 3-bet on the turn and then calling a river bet costs you 2BB, and working from there?

[TomBrooks]

At first blush this looks like a good fold against a normal, reasonable player. It sure looks like he has JJ or QQ for the made set or KK for the overpair which makes a set on the river. However, there is one other reasonable holding...A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. An aggressive player who was running hot and feeling lucky might three-bet the Turn with those 12 outs to the nuts plus 6 outs to TPTK.

Calling for one more bet seems warrented in the event he has that A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, plus you get to look him up. The odds are great at 14:1.

Edit: After reading the thread, I agree Villian may also have had AA (although statistically small chance since you had two As) and A:hearts: Q:hearts is somewhat possible.

I wouldn't say this is a terrible fold as I'd guess your beat 80-90% of the time. But I'd say your probably good close enough to 1 in 14 times to make calling somewhat +EV plus the value of looking him up is worth something.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
/images/graemlins/confused.gif

Huh? Unless 'Stars grabs 8BB from the pot once it exceeds 15BB (actually, I suppose 7.9BB), I don't see where these numbers are coming from. Do you mean that calling his 3-bet on the turn and then calling a river bet costs you 2BB, and working from there?

[/ QUOTE ]

If we narrow the Villain down to AA-JJ, then we lose with KK, QQ and JJ and split with AA. The best we can do is split, so our pot odds are cut in half.

I did miss A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, though, and while it's a really screwey play I guess someone might do it once in a while. I have no idea how often AQs is capped here; I don't think I've ever seen it from a typical Stars player, but capping preflop is so rare that I really don't know.

[Guthrie]

I didn't even bother with the math, but no way I'm folding to one bet on the river.

[nomadtla]

next time you plan to play a hand this way make it nines raise preflop and flop quads. At least then I wouldn't have lost my lunch it'd just be a brag post as long as you didn't fold the river there either.
Seriously I wanted to call this river when I read it just to protect you image and more important your sanity (at least whats left of it)

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously I wanted to call this river when I read it just to protect you image and more important your sanity (at least whats left of it)

[/ QUOTE ]
I can confirm that he may never play poker again. I think the kid has lost it for good.

[istewart]

This might be a legit fold (haven't worked out how often you have to be up against AA, but I'm guessing if a good player's range here is JJ+ you're losing significant money on a river call) against players you know to be 2+2-like and such but if LAG is in his description at all there's no way in [censored] I'm folding.

[Bodhi]

Eegah, you make the biggest folds of any micro-poster I know. Stop it. You call on the river because you're getting 15:1. It's simply math.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
If we narrow the Villain down to AA-JJ, then we lose with KK, QQ and JJ and split with AA. The best we can do is split, so our pot odds are cut in half.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gotcha. Given how thin the odds are of two players both having pocket aces, this isn't even an eventuality I consider. So, if you feel that you can narrow his holdings to AA-JJ, I would say that your pot odds to a split are nearly non-existent, given the likelihood of each holding.

[bottomset]

if he only has JJ+ you are beat 9times, chop 1

getting 7.5/1 so he needs something else some of the time

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
if he only has JJ+ you are beat 9times, chop 1

getting 7.5/1 so he needs something else some of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely my point. Given his read, though, I don't think that OP can (or, more precisely, should) narrow Villan's holding this far.

[bottomset]

if his range is JJ-KK, AA, AK /images/graemlins/heart.gif, AQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif

river call

lose 9times: -9BB
chop 1time: +7.875BB
win2times: +31.5BB

net:+30.375BB or 2.53BB/hand

if its just JJ-AA, AK /images/graemlins/heart.gif
lose: 9times: -9BB
chop1: +7.875
win1: 15.75
net: +14.625, +1.33BB/hand

seems pretty bad to fold here

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
I meant that. This hand will make you vomit. Don't say I didn't warn you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Then shouldn't the title of this thread be "Warning: Do not view hand following eating"?

I mean, nobody likes dry-heaving, but it's better than getting yak all over the computer.

And for God's sake, call this. You're mad enough to choke a baby either way, but at least you won't drive yourself nuts wondering if he had an overplayed A/K.

For the record, I had an empty stomach and did not barf.