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View Full Version : ballsy play or just lucky?

Mariogs379
09-03-2005, 08:56 PM
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t2720)
Hero (t1230)
UTG (t1710)
MP (t2390)
CO (t4540)
Button (t910)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls t150, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t375) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t375) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (t375) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t760 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t760.

Final Pot: t1895
Weatherhead03
09-03-2005, 08:58 PM
Lucky
Mariogs379
09-03-2005, 09:01 PM
sorry i didnt include it he had A5 for just a pair of nines
why do you say lucky?
dont you think he didnt want a call, that he just wanted to steal the pot?
Freudian
09-03-2005, 09:07 PM
Did you hear Vince Van Patten in your head while doing it? If yes, then it was a ballsy play.
wiggs73
09-03-2005, 09:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
sorry i didnt include it he had A5 for just a pair of nines
why do you say lucky?
dont you think he didnt want a call, that he just wanted to steal the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually like the play because the river paired the board. I think with top pair, he would have likely led the flop. By the turn, if he had a pair he probably would have bet. If he checks the turn with any pair, then I don't see him betting the river, he'd probably just check and hope for a showdown. That leaves the possibility that he is slowplaying something, but in that case, I think a value bet would be more likely on the river.

A read would obviously help, but I'm not surprised that the 2s held up at all. Tough call though, but a good one. Next time don't post the results for a while, let some discussion develop.
Weatherhead03
09-03-2005, 09:50 PM
What about 33, 44, 55, or someone just pushing with nuts or semi nuts and hoping for someone to make a dumb call? It is super super read dependent and unless I have a very good read I dont like calling that many chips with 22.
Michael C.
09-03-2005, 09:56 PM
I think it's read-dependant as well. If he's a normal, not super-sharp player, I think there's a better chance he's bluffing with a push than by betting 300 or so. But he could also have a medium pocket pair, and since the last card probably didn't pair you, that could explain the bet. I can't really say if I'd call there or not, but I'd guess not without a read on the player.
valenzuela
09-03-2005, 09:57 PM
are u winning over 50% of the time when u make that call?
09-04-2005, 12:34 AM
[ QUOTE ]
are u winning over 50% of the time when u make that call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling 760 to win 1135...

1135 / 760 = 1.49

1.49 / (1.49 + 1) = 60%

1 - 60% = 40%

[ QUOTE ]
are u winning over 40% of the time when u make that call?

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP
microbet
09-04-2005, 12:55 AM
$EV fold = .0926
$EV call and win = .177
$EV call and lose = .0447

.0926 = .177 * x + .0447 * (1 - x)
.0926 = .177x + .0447 - .0447x
.132x = .0479
x = .36 = 36%

Which is wierd so I probably made a mistake. I was expecting the number to be greater than 40%. I've got to go, can someone find my mistake? Or maybe in this case you are getting a big bump by eliminating a player if you win.
09-04-2005, 01:00 AM
The number is 40% when going strictly by pot odds, so I think it makes sense that it would be less than that when a player could be eliminated.
microbet
09-04-2005, 02:30 AM
Well, it sorta makes sense. It has to counter the chips gained being less valuable than chips lost though. I'll take a look at some player being eliminated situations. In the mean time, does anyone think I screwed up?
microbet
09-04-2005, 03:00 AM
[ QUOTE ]
$EV fold = .0926
$EV call and win = .177
$EV call and lose = .0447

.0926 = .177 * x + .0447 * (1 - x)
.0926 = .177x + .0447 - .0447x
.132x = .0479
x = .36 = 36%

Which is wierd so I probably made a mistake. I was expecting the number to be greater than 40%. I've got to go, can someone find my mistake? Or maybe in this case you are getting a big bump by eliminating a player if you win.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did screw up. I knew it. $EV call and lose is .029.

.0926 = .177 * x + .029 * (1 - x)
.0926 = .177x + .029 - .029x
.148x = .0636
x = .43 = 43%

That's more like it.