Folding Kings

[Mercman572]

Villian is 20/10/6 after 30 hands but no real reads
Call down, fold river or fold turn?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 ($42.90)
Hero ($50)
MP3 ($30)
CO ($51.05)
Button ($49)
SB ($104.68)
BB ($54.30)
UTG ($179.81)
UTG+1 ($56.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG calls $2.50.

Flop: ($6.75) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $8</font>, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($22.75) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $12</font>, Hero calls $12.

River: ($46.75) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $27</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $73.75

[AllIn3High]

Why call the turn if you're folding a blank river?

I'm probably calling the river.

[IamLeach]

As played I'd call the river. Myself, i would have re-raised the flop for fun /images/graemlins/smile.gif This could also set you up for a free turn.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
Why call the turn if you're folding a blank river?

I'm probably calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it was a mistake calling the turn. the turn says to me i'm beat.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
As played I'd call the river. Myself, i would have re-raised the flop for fun /images/graemlins/smile.gif This could also set you up for a free turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't get this at all. A reraise allows villain to play perfectly against me no? also why a free card? in hopes of hitting 1 or 2 kings

[IamLeach]

Your bet after the flop looks like a continuation bet. Perhaps Villian is trying to push you off an unimproved hand here. This depends on villian stats etc.. etc... But I hate not being in the lead so I would want to re-raise. I may even push all in here. Again this all depends on your iomage and villians playing habits. The free card is in case you are afraid of him having a better hand. You re-raise you say 12 on the flop...villian calls and checks and you check = seeing the river for 12. You call his raise on the flop and his bet on the turn = 20. If he pushs all in on the flop...well i would assume he's got me there and I lost the least.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
Your bet after the flop looks like a continuation bet. Perhaps Villian is trying to push you off an unimproved hand here. This depends on villian stats etc.. etc... But I hate not being in the lead so I would want to re-raise. I may even push all in here . Again this all depends on your iomage and villians playing habits. The free card is in case you are afraid of him having a better hand. You re-raise you say 12 on the flop...villian calls and checks and you check = seeing the river for 12. You call his raise on the flop and his bet on the turn = 20. If he pushs all in on the flop...well i would assume he's got me there and I lost the least.

[/ QUOTE ]

pushing all in would be awful I think. What calls that I'm ahead of and what folds that I'm behind? Call minraise, fold turn loses least money of all. But villain has a PFA of 6, the checkminraise is very suspect, leading the turn after I call the check minraise also throws away the chance of a bluff. I'm putting villain on bottom set, MAYBE top 2 but unlikely. What kind of hand range does everyone put him on given stats and actions?

anyone else for a flop reraise?

[jcmack13]

[ QUOTE ]
What kind of hand range does everyone put him on given stats and actions?


[/ QUOTE ]

Why is AJ out of the question here? this looks like AJ more than anything else.

[skoal2k4]

i go broke on this hand

[ajmargarine]

Chip spewing. Nothing has really changed from the flop to the river. With a turn and river blank, his hand was most likely made back on the flop. And so you call the flop c/r, and his turn bet. OK, fine: you must think your kings are good, right? Why else are you calling then? And then you fold on the river. Given your action in the hand, you have to call that river bet. It's a must.

He bet $12 on the turn. At that point you can calculate how much it's going to cost you to see a showdown. He bet about half pot there. Figure half pot on the river will be coming if you call. So on the turn, you know it's going to cost you around your whole stack to showdown this hand. So, decide right there what you're going to do. Fold it right there and move on to the next hand. Or. Because it's probably going to cost you your stack to see a showdown, you can push the turn if you want to. That last part is optional though, calling down is fine.

Being in the middle like you were in this hand is a big leak. Decide earlier what you are going to do and do it. Fold it earlier, or see it thru to the end.

[skoal2k4]

[ QUOTE ]
Chip spewing. Nothing has really changed from the flop to the river. With a turn and river blank, his hand was most likely made back on the flop. And so you call the flop c/r, and his turn bet. OK, fine: you must think your kings are good, right? Why else are you calling then? And then you fold on the river. Given your action in the hand, you have to call that river bet. It's a must.

He bet $12 on the turn. At that point you can calculate how much it's going to cost you to see a showdown. He bet about half pot there. Figure half pot on the river will be coming if you call. So on the turn, you know it's going to cost you around your whole stack to showdown this hand. So, decide right there what you're going to do. Fold it right there and move on to the next hand. Or. Because it's probably going to cost you your stack to see a showdown, you can push the turn if you want to. That last part is optional though, calling down is fine.

Being in the middle like you were in this hand is a big leak. Decide earlier what you are going to do and do it. Fold it earlier, or see it thru to the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

excellent

[trumpman84]

I see this line with TPTK a lot, so I dont think you can rule out AJo. From his perspective... He limps UTG with AJ..you raise, he decides to take a flop. He flops top pair, top kicker and he thinks his hand is good and is unsure. When you make a bet on the flop as you would with any two, he wants more information on the hand so he min-raises planning on folding to a re-raise. You just call..so he thinks he's ahead. He bets the turn and gets another call. At this point, I'm probably putting you on tens or something that is just hoping to have the best hand, but certainly not anything I'm losing to otherwise, I would of heard from you on the flop or turn. So, when a blank falls, I put out a half pot value bet, hoping to be called by tens or nines.

So you can see that with the line you took, you have to call the river. Certainly nothing wrong with the line IMO as it will get worse hands to bet into you, and saves you money when it is a set, but you have to call the river.

[Stealthy]

I don't like the way control of the betting was lost so easy here. If I had AJ in this spot (which I wouldn't be, I'd have folded pre-flop) I am raising that flop every time. I have TPTK and want to see where I am at.

You have position here and gave up control far too easy IMO. Re-raise the flop to let him know you really have something then at least you can then find out just how good you really are. Plus if he just calls and you make a 1/2 pot bet on the turn and he calls again you can often just check behind on the river if you don't want to face the river check-raise risk.

If he pops you back at any point on the flop or turn at least you can fold knowing that you were likely behind, although queens could still not be ruled out.

A lot of times here I think you can expect your kings to be good and his mini-raise on the flop is not enough evidence for me that I am behind. His big bet on the end looked dangerous and perhaps harboured a monster but you had a good shot at not having to decide for your whole stack.

Given his aggression on all streets in his stats changes things quite a bit for me from the line I would take above and would probably re-raise big on the flop and put the rest in on the turn. I would expect to be good against a maniac here far more often than not.

[troymclur]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the way control of the betting was lost so easy here. If I had AJ in this spot (which I wouldn't be, I'd have folded pre-flop) I am raising that flop every time. I have TPTK and want to see where I am at.

You have position here and gave up control far too easy IMO. Re-raise the flop to let him know you really have something then at least you can then find out just how good you really are. Plus if he just calls and you make a 1/2 pot bet on the turn and he calls again you can often just check behind on the river if you don't want to face the river check-raise risk.

If he pops you back at any point on the flop or turn at least you can fold knowing that you were likely behind, although queens could still not be ruled out.

A lot of times here I think you can expect your kings to be good and his mini-raise on the flop is not enough evidence for me that I am behind. His big bet on the end looked dangerous and perhaps harboured a monster but you had a good shot at not having to decide for your whole stack.

Given his aggression on all streets in his stats changes things quite a bit for me from the line I would take above and would probably re-raise big on the flop and put the rest in on the turn. I would expect to be good against a maniac here far more often than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how QQ isn't raising PF. I agree with the the rest of it though.

[Stealthy]

In revision to what I said above and having seen his chip stack I am expecting our hero to be ahead here 95% of the time, even that $27 bet on the end is standard for a LAG with a big stack. I an never afraid to stick the whole lot in when I feel I have the best hand and I am not folding this hand against that player on that board not ever! I would probably pump it in on the flop as well as he may have a pair or even no hand at all, but I don't want him making some flakey 2 pair against me. And if he wants to draw with somthing like QT he can double me up for his drawing privelages.

[LaramieJC]

I felt somewhat obligated to share my two cents here since I was the villain in this hand. Is it that inconceivable that I limped utg w/22 or was planning to limp raise AA as I sometimes do but the field folded to hero's raise....The flop min raise was due to hero being TP preflop and Agg postflop according to PT. It seems that aggressive players often react to this min raise by popping in a substantial raise on the flop w/an overpair or other strong holding, but this time mercman called...hmmm. The bet on the turn was for value and since he just called passively I assumed he would put the rest of his stack in ($27) on the river w/KK or AJs. As for being a LAG with a big stack...really w/VPIP of 18, a PFR of 9, and total Agg factor of 2.5. Stats are pretty close to what mercman found after just 30 hands. If the turn bet didn't tell him he was beaten, the river bet did. My advice would have been to raise me on the flop in order to find out sooner in the hand that you were behind.

JC aka CKO

[amoeba]

I think you are beaten. fold to turn bet.

call of flop minraise is fine especially the more drawy it is.

once he weak leads the turn again its time to let it go. Thats a value bet/pot builder if I ever saw one.

if you call the turn thinking this is something like KJ or AJ, you must call the river.

typically though KJ or AJ doesn't checkminraise the flop in my experience.

and I hate 3 bet raising the flop. you can't minraise 3 bet and making a real raise up to like say $25 is just spewing chips as if you noticed if you just called down in how the hand did play out, you don't lose that much more.

3 betting for info is only good if the info you get is accurate and will save you a significant amount of chips and in this case I don't think it saves you a significant amount of chips.

you can get that info just as easily by calling and seeing how he plays turn as you have position.

[amoeba]

thats an expensive river check behind you are buying with the flop 3 bet, bet the turn for 1/2 pot line.

you realize you drop another 60 dollars with this line here right? and you get insanely good odds if he puts you in at the river as its 20 or 25 in to an over 100 pot.

I hate this line.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are beaten. fold to turn bet.

call of flop minraise is fine especially the more drawy it is.

once he weak leads the turn again its time to let it go. Thats a value bet/pot builder if I ever saw one.

if you call the turn thinking this is something like KJ or AJ, you must call the river.

typically though KJ or AJ doesn't checkminraise the flop in my experience.

and I hate 3 bet raising the flop. you can't minraise 3 bet and making a real raise up to like say $25 is just spewing chips as if you noticed if you just called down in how the hand did play out, you don't lose that much more.

3 betting for info is only good if the info you get is accurate and will save you a significant amount of chips and in this case I don't think it saves you a significant amount of chips.

you can get that info just as easily by calling and seeing how he plays turn as you have position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you entirely except for calling the river. Making two bad calls only compounds the problem. I wasn't calling the turn intending to call a blank river, it was more of a brain fart if you will...or I was just a little too married to my KK. If I like my line until calling the turn, check my other post saying how bad I think a reraise is. Chip spewing as you said and it lets a worse hand out too easily. It was either a set of 2's or 9s as I imagined laramie?

[amoeba]

calling turn and folding river is fine if turn call was brainfart.

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[LaramieJC]

Set of 2s. I was wondering what I did wrong to not get the rest of your stack lol.

JC

[pokerjoker]

call down

[TheWorstPlayer]

Flop min c/r is brutally bad. Either lead the flop or c/c the flop and lead the turn. Or c/r the flop like you mean it if you think OP is loose postflop or he reads you as tricky with draws. But I strongly prefer either leading the flop or calling the flop and leading the turn. The min c/r shows a lot of power, so it tips him off to the strength of your hand, but it doesn't get much more money in the pot. So it is just really really bad.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop min c/r is brutally bad. Either lead the flop or c/c the flop and lead the turn. Or c/r the flop like you mean it if you think OP is loose postflop or he reads you as tricky with draws. But I strongly prefer either leading the flop or calling the flop and leading the turn. The min c/r shows a lot of power, so it tips him off to the strength of your hand, but it doesn't get much more money in the pot. So it is just really really bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

what twp said, you gave the most obvious set line. Normally I fold this turn and you lost all your potential money from me. your VPIP, PFR and agg factor highly indicate a set. interesting that I got rated TP pf, my pfr is about 6.5-7 but I was card dead I suppose. Lead the flop, I smooth call with no draws. Lead the turn for 1/2 pot I call again. Value bet river and I go broke with a crying call. Or check/ call, check call, lead river and I feel that I am beat but am priced in. If I play an extended amount of hands with you its not worth playing 22's-44s ep for set value bc its too hard for it to be worth it. Everyone points out the ciaffone 5-10 rule, but he himself says to ditch those hands early...also I modify the rule to about 5-7% and will fold if Kongo Totte raises only 5% of his stack for example.

[mayesie]

The flop mini-raise smells (possibly a set of nines). The turn and river look like value bets (he's keeping the bets reasonably small to increase the chances of being called down.)

I probably fold the turn here. I tend to give villain credit for a big hand, based on the betting and his stats.

Gotta make the decision to call down river or not as soon as he min-raises. The board is most likely only going to get worse. From his stats, I think he could minraise you here with AJ looking to see what you have. Why would he play two pair or a set this way? Board is drawless, and calling will likely get a pot bet on the turn which he can raise. I think I am calling this one down all the way.