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View Full Version : AJo Raise or Call?

09-03-2005, 04:09 PM
Reads: BB is LAG, MP1 is LP (35/2.7 after 37 hands)

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero ...

Should I call down or raise here. Not sure if MP1 has a set 2Pair, Jx or worse.
LoaferGee12
09-03-2005, 04:15 PM
I like a raise here, as it looks like he's just betting his Jack again to stop a potential free card. An 8 is check-raising here 90% of the time.
irishpint
09-03-2005, 04:16 PM
id call, i dont expect BB to raise us. only one possible flop 2 pair combo are we ahead of, and thats J2, which isn't too likely I dont think.
irishpint
09-03-2005, 04:16 PM
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En respuesta a:</font><hr />
I like a raise here, as it looks like he's just betting his Jack again to stop a potential free card. An 8 is check-raising here 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

i love people who quote percentages!!
LoaferGee12
09-03-2005, 04:17 PM
[ QUOTE ]
id call, i dont expect BB to raise us. only one possible flop 2 pair combo are we ahead of, and thats J2, which isn't too likely I dont think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?
LoaferGee12
09-03-2005, 04:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like a raise here, as it looks like he's just betting his Jack again to stop a potential free card. An 8 is check-raising here 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

i love people who quote percentages!!

[/ QUOTE ]

It was more a figure of speech, if you will.
Duerig
09-03-2005, 07:41 PM
I'd call down. If he's bluffing, a raise might make him fold. If he's not bluffing, you're going to get 3 bet, which sucks. HU, let him bluff the turn. Given a read I might consider raising the river.
milesdyson
09-03-2005, 08:02 PM
37 hands isn't enough to truly call him passive.

i would raise here. he doesn't have J2 (it wouldn't matter anyway), and after he saw BB fold out, you would expect him to cap J8.

more important than what you know about these players is what they know about each other. if you had said in your post that MP1 was aware of the lag and could possibly be raising the flop with less than top pair, that makes a difference (i would probably just call down).

i expect him to have AJ-9J most of the time, and he thinks he is being smooth by not allowing your "flush draw" to see a free river.
Shillx
09-03-2005, 08:06 PM
Calldown. A 36/3 player is almost never any good, even after just 35 hands. If he were a 10/3 or a 30/20 he might still be a good player, but not this guy.

You are in bad shape here quite often imo.

Brad
lautzutao
09-03-2005, 08:20 PM
You CANNOT raise here. He's passive after 35 hands, and he's betting into your 3-bet you placed on the flop. If that doesn't send up signal flares....I think he's got 8's full here and just have to call down. The pot is too large to give up heads up. Just hope for a miracle river.
09-03-2005, 08:28 PM
I'm calling down. With his stats, I think he has either a set or FH.
09-03-2005, 10:54 PM
Thanks for the responses.

I did call down. He showed 99.
bozlax
09-03-2005, 11:09 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling down. With his stats, I think he has either a set or FH.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why the hell call him down? By the way, if he has a set, then he either has a full house or quads (if he flopped a set of 8s).

If you think he's got trip 8s, or an already-made boat, you don't have anything like the odds to call...since, uh, you're drawing to 2 outs or dead.
09-04-2005, 02:10 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling down. With his stats, I think he has either a set or FH.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why the hell call him down? By the way, if he has a set, then he either has a full house or quads (if he flopped a set of 8s).

If you think he's got trip 8s, or an already-made boat, you don't have anything like the odds to call...since, uh, you're drawing to 2 outs or dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me rephrase, Boz. I've been drinking /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. . . and: I think more probably than not he has trips (I mistakenly said "set" before when I meant trips; I thought he either had trip 8s or a FH comprised of 88222), but I'm not very confident about it. IMHO perhaps 75% of the time he has trips or FH. Because of the 25% doubt, with 8.5 big bets in, and at least one more to come, I think it's worth calling down (9.5:2 or 4.75:1 makes it worth calling here where I think I'm 3:1 to have the best hand).