Missed River Bets

[rharless]

I have just recently realized how many river bets I have been leaving on the table. A lot of 2+2 posts this year have really focused me on just how much room for improvement I have on this last street. On to the hands...

Tell me if you think I was wrong to check the river in each of these hands, but also feel free to comment on other streets.

Hand 1 (Online 1-2)
One EMP caller, then I raise in MP with AQo. I get one cold caller, BB calls, EMP calls.

Flop: 5s Kc Qs
(I have the As)
Check to me, I bet, cold caller calls, other two fold.

Turn: [5s Kc Qs] 6s
I bet, he calls.

River: [5s Kc Qs] 6s 5d
I check (but I think I will call if he bets -- I have a hard time laying down on the river for one bet when I was PFR and I have something worth showdown), he checks.

My AQ beats his 9s9c.

Hand 2 (Mirage 6-12)
(This hand was a couple weeks ago and exact details escape me.)
I have 7h5h in BB, and I check. About six people to the flop.

Flop: T 5 3 with one heart (rainbow)
SB bets, I call, one or two more people call

Turn: [T 5 3] non-heart 4
SB bets, I call, one other person calls

River: [T 5 3] 4 7
SB checks, I check, LP checks.

I win with the two pair, SB had had QQ, LP didn't show.

Hand 3 (Online 3-6)
I limp in EP with 88. Five or six to the flop.

Flop: 8s 7s 2d
Check to me, I bet. Two people call.

Turn: [8s 7s 2d] Tc
Check to me, I bet, one person (LP) calls.

River: [8s 7s 2d] Tc 6d
I check, LP bets, I call.

I win with my set, LP has ATo.

Hand 4 (Online 3-6)
I have TT in the big blind. LP open-calls, SB completes. I raise, they both call.

Flop: Ah Js 7d
SB checks, I bet, they both call.

Turn: [Ah Js 7d] 8s
We all check.

River: [Ah Js 7d] 8s Jh
We all check. (Even if the river had not paired the jack, I am pretty sure I would have checked anything other than a T or 9.)

I win. Other two players have K6o and T8o.

Hand 5 (Online 10-20)
I have QQ in LP. UTG open-raises. Everyone folds to me. My default play here is to re-raise but for some reason, I just call. Blinds fold.

Flop: J-8-2 rainbow
EP bets, I raise, he re-raises, I cap.

Turn: small rag, I forget /forums/images/icons/frown.gif
EP checks, I bet, he calls.

River: small rag again.
We both check. (2+2ers groan in unison)

I win. He has AKo.

[bernie]

hand 1

i you check you almost have to call since you could be inducing a bluff

hand 2

im usually not afraid of running hands. if they got it, they paid alot more than your 1 bet on the end to get it. think of it that way. id have bet here..

hand 3

here you induced a semi bluff. not bad if you think he'd fold to a bet.

hand 4

can be a tricky spot to be in. the sb has nothing, youre only worry is the guy behind you. id take a shot and bet it. may not be the best way though

hand 5

no reason not to bet here. he told you on the turn, he had no more than top pair.

b

[AceHigh]

Hand 1 - check is good, plus it might induce a bluff from something like JT.

Hand 2 - bet, SB's not going to check a hand that can beat two pair after leading the whole way is he?

Hand 3 - If you think LP was drawing you might want to check, to induce bluff vs. flush and not get raised by straight. If you are not sure, and against a pretty loose player, you should probably bet.

Hand 4 - What can they be calling with that you can beat? We find out, but who could put them on that? I think I would check on the river.

Hand 5 - What hands would he play this way that you can beat? AJ/AA/KK/QQ seem like mostly hands, so 12 wins (AJ), 12 losers (AA/KK) and 1 tie, so check seems in order. Can he call the river with AK?

[Bob T.]

1 - I bet the river, I haven't got any real resisitance, and if I check, I will have to call, so I bet, because I want to win 1 bet when I am ahead, as well as the 1 I will lose when behind.

2 - I think this hand belongs in the bet, and fold to a raise category. Same logic as above.

3 - I would have bet again, and maybe folded to a raise. I think that this one is thinner than the others. I just like to keep pushing with my set.

4 - This one might be one where you are ahead, but only better hands will call. On the other hand, your opponents paid to see the turn with against a preflop raiser out of the blinds with - what? I think writing notes after this hand is the best play.

5 - I'm betting after he checks to me on the river.

[rharless]

I think my overriding problem is that I hate betting and folding to a raise on the river, when I could have check-called the river -- in my mind, that is same price, but you get to the showdown.

I think I have been unknowingly perfecting the "induce a river bluff" play for four years but obviously it's not a great habit, at least not as much as I have been executing it. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

I can't figure out why, on the river, when I know the most information about my opponent's hands and my hands, I am least confident in placing out bets. Quite an irony. Especially with hands 2,3, 5, and to some degree hand 1, I felt I would probably win the pot but I just didn't want to be raised or checkraised and shown a better hand (or be raised and have to make a hard laydown, for me).

I guess I have to re-train myself to think of these situations as money lost, even though I am happily scooping the pot. I also have to re-train myself in that my biggest goal on the river has been to have a showdown, whereas that should not necessarily be my top priority. It's just very hard for me to identify those situations where they will call with lesser hands, but raise only with better hands allowing me to fold without regrets.

Are there any particular essays/chapters that have helped you with river thinking? (any of you, not just Bob T)

[Homer]

Hand 1 - I think it is close and depends on the nature of your opponent. Against loose players I would bet and against tight players I would check.

Hand 2

I would bet every time. There is no reason to put anyone on a 6 (especially SB) based on the way the cards came out. If the order had been [754]-T-3 instead of [T53]-4-7, then you can be a little more worried about someone having made a straight. If raised I would probably fold.

Hand 3

I would bet, most likely. Hopefully you didn't check because you feared your opponent had a 9. Just as in Hand 2, there is no reason to put your opponent on such a holding. A reason for checking would be to induce a bluff from a flush draw that didn't get there (if you suspect your opponent is on a draw). In this case, the looser and passiver (err more passive) your opponent is, the more beneficial betting becomes. This is because loose opponents will call with all kinds of crap and they won't bet if they missed their flush draw. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you should lean towards checking against tight-aggressive opponents. Such an opponent is likely to have been on a draw, given that his typical playing style is tight-aggressive (call-call doesn't match his typical playing style, so he is likely drawing). Also, he is likely to bet when checked to on the river, because, well, that's what aggressive players like to do.

Hand 4

I would have played it the same. The flop is rainbow and uncoordinated, yet two players called your bet. It seems quite likely that at least one opponent has you beat. I would check the turn with the intention of folding to a bet. When no one bets the turn it is difficult to resist betting the river. However, someone could easily have a Jack and could have been afraid to bet the turn given that the A is out there. When the Jack pairs on the river, I would again check with the intention of folding to a bet. If you intend to call a bet, then you should bet it yourself and fold to a raise. If the river was a card less than a Jack, I would be more likely to bet.

Hand 5

I'd like to think I would bet. Most players wouldn't slow down so quickly with KK or AA. He probably has top-top or overcards.

-- Homer

[Flashy]

This is a big leak in most player's games. The key question is "am I only going to be called by people who beat me."

For example, if you have represented an Ace, you are going to get called by other Aces, so how proud are you of your kicker? Few low limit players will fold an Ace.

Sometimes, I will get called by people who can't beat the top pair I am representing because they think I am bluffing. So you have to factor who is left as to whether to bet or not.

In general, I don't think anyone is too far off not betting top pair from early position or checking down in late. A early check will induce a bet from most other players so you really haven't lost much. You can see if it get raised or not and decide to call.

Getting a reputation of only betting on the river when you have the goods can help when you can only win by bluffing. But don't try it too often.

Once you have two pair or better, than you need to be thinking bet unless the action has been big indicating a set or the board is scary.

Finally, when you get to a straight or better, you have to close your eyes and fling in chips unless it is hopeless. I have watched too many people check down a full house or a flush because it was on the weak side.

You can't worry about monsters under the bed on the river. The number of times your premium hand gets beat isn't enough to make up for the bets you loose by not pushing the hand. If the bet gets raised, then you are in trouble but not before then.
IMHO

[rharless]

Hand 2, sometimes I think I am my own worst enemy on the river. I was very sure I had SB beat, but had no idea what the LP player had.
And for the record, a 2+2er at the table (rhymes with 'shyster') certainly thought it was an obvious bet. /forums/images/icons/blush.gif

I think I need to tattoo "it is ok to bet and fold to a raise" on my fore-arm.

Hand 3, of course I checked because I feared a 9!! /forums/images/icons/confused.gif There's a myriad of hands with a 9 that are more than happy to call and not raise that flop. Why is there no reason to put an opponent on having a 9 when the flop is 872 and he calls the flop and the T on the turn?

Hand 5 was the one I was most disappointed with, of the bunch. Aye carumba!!!

[Louie Landale]

Yes, I'd say failing to get value on the river is a MAJOR flaw of most aspiring players.

First of all, this analysis would be better if you didn't tell us about the show-down. Its too easy and tempting (and detrimental) to adjust ones thinking that way.

[1] You are heads-up and since you didn't get raised on the flop nor raised on the turn, and don't fear the river too much, the chances you have the best hand is pretty high. The problem is with which hands he'll call that you can beat. I'd say that was pretty close; he may call with 99, he may fold AJ. However, you have additional information you didn't know you had: you had decided it was worth paying him off. If so, then the REAL question is whether or he'll bet more hands (usually bluffs) then he'd call with. If he's reasonably assertive you should check and take his money. If he's passive then you should bet. Read Caro, this bet is a "winner" even when you lose money on it (by virtue of the fact you intended to call).

[2] Its a small pot, you are in bad position, you are usually beat, and you are sandwhiched. Terrible flop call. You only have one player to beat AND are likely to get a SB call, so I guess I'd bet it. Unless, of course, the other player may bluff.

[3] Well, here you go. You hand is worth a call so you checked because he'll bet more hand than he'll call with.

[4] Looks like a pretty good time to check to me. They'd have to be REAL tenacious to pay that one off with a pair of 7s considering your pre-flop raise from the blinds and the 2 big cards out there. And besided, I'd guess you are PROBABLY beat.

[5] <Editor's note: if you forget the card, just make something up>. I would not cap the flop. If your hand is WORTH capping you should just call, hehehe, figuring to raise the turn. Anyway, if he's reasonable aggressive I'd bet that one for value on the end. If he's NOT reasonably aggressive, I'd have slowed down ON the flop and go into pay-it-off mode (the only hand you can beat is AJ, and he MAY not 3-bet that). So this one is clearly a who-are-you-up-against decision.

Over-all, try this: if you bet the turn and get called and have good reason to believe you had the best hand on the turn, then you need a REAL GOOD SPECIFIC reason NOT to bet for value on the river. Lots of good reason's exist, just be sure you have one that wasn't hard to find.

- Louie

[rharless]

this analysis would be better if you didn't tell us about the show-down

OK, duly noted.

Its a small pot, you are in bad position, you are usually beat, and you are sandwhiched. Terrible flop call.

I have 5 outs, effectively six outs with the backdoor flush -- this is somewhere over a 20% chance of improving, and the pot is offering me about 7:1. Obviously I am usually beat at this point, I don't disagree with that.

<Editor's note: if you forget the card, just make something up>.

OK /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

Thanks for all your help -- a lot of food for thought for me.

[Bob T.]

What helped me, was I posted a whole bunch of river bet problems, got answers which usually consisted of 'bet the river, worse hands will call', and I started betting the river more, and I went on a two month tear at 3+ bets/hour.

I started watching, and saw how often my opponents checked the river when I would have called. I also noticed how often that my opponents bet the river in front of me, when they beat my hand, because they were afraid of it being checked through, even though I was intending to bet, and so I realized that if they checked to me, it was probably right to bet.

I think that you just have to go out and make some river bets, and then see how it works, and you will probably get more confidence in this area.

[Louie Landale]

[2] No, your chances of "improving" do NOT compare favorably, since you are about a 7:1 (41:6) dog to improve on the next card getting only 7:1 right now. That's way too close. 20% (or whatever) only applies if you take two more cards, in which case you should presume it will cost you another BB to draw.

Anyway, it is your "chance to win" that must compare favorably, and certainly if you "improve" your little-pair you are still in some jeopardy. All the other criteria (bad position, may get raised now, etc) also apply.

- Louie

[rharless]

Thanks for the clear explanation, Louie.

[rigoletto]

Hand 4 - What can they be calling with that you can beat?

K7, T8, 98, 99, 67...