Simple PF question

[rmarotti]

PP 5/10 6max

You hold 67o in the BB, UTG raises, the entire field coldcalls to you.

What do you do and is it close? What about 78o? 45?

[Evan]

No, it's not close. JTo to call.

[Luv2DriveTT]

How about in a full ring game? BB would be getting 19:1... I think thats a call.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Harv72b]

Any two is a call getting 19:1.

[sy_or_bust]

76o is a little better than any 2 facing a field.

[jason_t]

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How about in a full ring game? BB would be getting 19:1... I think thats a call.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero isn't getting 19:1 as it's 6 max. Hero is getting 11:1. That makes it a fold as per Andrew Prock's analysis showing that offsuit connectors need at least 12:1 to be profitable.

[TXTiger]

Could you put up a link to the analysis. I can't find it.

[jason_t]

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Could you put up a link to the analysis. I can't find it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, it took some time for me to find it and I'm glad I did; here is a link (http://www.cs.wisc.edu/~prock/poker/unsuited) to Andrew Prock's analysis.

[TXTiger]

xx

[Entity]

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No, it's not close. JTo to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call. 11:1 is too good to pass up here.

[Entity]

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How about in a full ring game? BB would be getting 19:1... I think thats a call.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero isn't getting 19:1 as it's 6 max. Hero is getting 11:1. That makes it a fold as per Andrew Prock's analysis showing that offsuit connectors need at least 12:1 to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Andrew's analysis is based on the odds necessary to complete in the SB against limpers though, isn't it? There's a difference here.

Rob

[Entity]

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No, it's not close. JTo to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if you wouldn't call, saying it isn't close is dumb. It's definitely close. Brighten and I had a discussion about this a while ago -- I think the odds were 9.5:1 and the guy called with T9o and we thought it wasn't a good call -- but when we went further into the discussion Bright told me he'd rather have 76o than T9o in that situation, and eventually I came to agree.

[jason_t]

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How about in a full ring game? BB would be getting 19:1... I think thats a call.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero isn't getting 19:1 as it's 6 max. Hero is getting 11:1. That makes it a fold as per Andrew Prock's analysis showing that offsuit connectors need at least 12:1 to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Andrew's analysis is based on the odds necessary to complete in the SB against limpers though, isn't it? There's a difference here.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

No it wasn't specific to the SB against limpers; Andrew merely says that is when the favorable conditions are most likely to come up. Against a raise, these hands are in even worse shape because of the possibilty of a big overpair being out.

[Entity]

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How about in a full ring game? BB would be getting 19:1... I think thats a call.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero isn't getting 19:1 as it's 6 max. Hero is getting 11:1. That makes it a fold as per Andrew Prock's analysis showing that offsuit connectors need at least 12:1 to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Andrew's analysis is based on the odds necessary to complete in the SB against limpers though, isn't it? There's a difference here.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

No it wasn't specific to the SB against limpers; Andrew merely says that is when the favorable conditions are most likely to come up. Against a raise, these hands are in even worse shape because of the possibilty of a big overpair being out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Prock's implied odds calculations are based on an unraised pot -- people tend to call more in larger pots helping your implied odds quite a bit. Even so, he mentions that 10:1 is fine if you want to play a bit more loosely.

Rob

[jason_t]

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How about in a full ring game? BB would be getting 19:1... I think thats a call.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero isn't getting 19:1 as it's 6 max. Hero is getting 11:1. That makes it a fold as per Andrew Prock's analysis showing that offsuit connectors need at least 12:1 to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Andrew's analysis is based on the odds necessary to complete in the SB against limpers though, isn't it? There's a difference here.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

No it wasn't specific to the SB against limpers; Andrew merely says that is when the favorable conditions are most likely to come up. Against a raise, these hands are in even worse shape because of the possibilty of a big overpair being out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Prock's implied odds calculations are based on an unraised pot -- people tend to call more in larger pots helping your implied odds quite a bit. Even so, he mentions that 10:1 is fine if you want to play a bit more loosely.

Rob

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The implied odds are likely to be better in an unraised/SB scenario because you are making a smaller investment preflop meaning you have to make up less postflop.

[Entity]

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How about in a full ring game? BB would be getting 19:1... I think thats a call.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero isn't getting 19:1 as it's 6 max. Hero is getting 11:1. That makes it a fold as per Andrew Prock's analysis showing that offsuit connectors need at least 12:1 to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Andrew's analysis is based on the odds necessary to complete in the SB against limpers though, isn't it? There's a difference here.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

No it wasn't specific to the SB against limpers; Andrew merely says that is when the favorable conditions are most likely to come up. Against a raise, these hands are in even worse shape because of the possibilty of a big overpair being out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Prock's implied odds calculations are based on an unraised pot -- people tend to call more in larger pots helping your implied odds quite a bit. Even so, he mentions that 10:1 is fine if you want to play a bit more loosely.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

The implied odds are likely to be better in an unraised/SB scenario because you are making a smaller investment preflop meaning you have to make up less postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You will generally make a significant amount more than Prock's SB estimates in a situation where you're in a generally semiaggressive game with a fairly large pot.

Rob

[jason_t]

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You will generally make a significant amount more than Prock's SB estimates in a situation where you're in a generally semiaggressive game with a fairly large pot.

Rob

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In an aggressive game, you may have to end up folding weak draws like gutshots and two pair/trips draws because your effective odds are killed by the aggressive nature of the game. A lot of people make this mistake postflop, calling when they shouldn't because of the possibility of raises behind them. So you don't have as much value postflop as in a loose/passive game and this means you should tighten up calling with hands like this in situations like this. These hands have to be played extremely well postflop, and many just aren't capable of that.

[IndieMatty]

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No, it's not close. JTo to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? This is an easy call.

[jason_t]

This rough unfiltered conversation may be useful.

[00:34] Entity: 76o, 11:1, I call
[00:34] jason_t: i replied to you
[00:34] jason_t: in the thread
[00:35] Entity: 13:1 in the small blind with 5 limpers
[00:35] Entity: that's from andrew's article
[00:36] Entity: this is different in a raised pot with coldcallers
[00:36] Entity: in an aggressive game
[00:36] Entity: also from the article
[00:36] Entity: "If you want to play a bit looser, you *might* consider just "halving" the unfactored calling requirements. So you might call with 0-gap medium hands for 10:1 odds, and 1-gap for 13:1."
[00:37] jason_t: yeah "if"
[00:37] Entity: that if
[00:37] Entity: is negated by the fact that this is a raised pot
[00:37] Entity: and people call more in raised pots
[00:37] Entity: increasing your implied odds
[00:37] Entity: with a hand that is *not* a reverse implied odds hand
[00:38] Entity: unlike QJo, JTo in the same situation
[00:39] jason_t: "Basically the analysis shows that these hands are dogs, all the way around. The only time you get pure value out of these hands is when you are in the small blind and can play them for half a bet. And you really want five callers ahead of you to justify the chance."
[00:39] Entity: brighten and I talked for quite a while about this
[00:39] Entity: we *know* that this hand is a dog
[00:39] Entity: that's not the question.
[00:39] Entity: the question is whether or not the implied odds of an unsuited connector can make up for paying 1 SB into a 12SB pot
[00:39] Entity: and he admits that the implied odds in the SB are generally good enough to be calling at somewhere between 10:1 and 13:1
[00:40] Entity: with 13:1 being easy and 10:1 being lose
[00:40] jason_t: yeah but that's because you're investing less preflop so you have to make up less postflop
[00:40] Entity: and your implied odds are *increased* in a pot like this with coldcallers
[00:40] jason_t: that's why the implied odds are better in an unraised/sb scenario
[00:42] Entity: his implied odds in an unraised pot are very specific, and actually quite low
[00:42] Entity: given the situation
[00:43] Entity: as they only count on 2 callers going for 1 bet each on each street
[00:43] Entity: and only one caller on the river
[00:43] Entity: that's quite a drastic difference from what you will see in this game, in this situation
[00:43] jason_t: but if you call a 3/10 big bet in the small blind here, the bets you collect postflop have more value relative to the size of the preflop investment which is why you have very nice implied odds when calling from the sb
[00:44] Entity: 5 limpers, you complete 76o in the SB, BB raises, all call
[00:44] Entity: you??
[00:45] jason_t: 13:1 it's a call
[00:45] Entity: we really can't debate this without seeing the postflop outcome, but the crux is that andrew's calculations are based on a 7BB final pot size
[00:45] Entity: and that is completely unrealistic in this situation -- we're looking at over 2x the final pot size on average, I would guess, here
[00:45] Entity: just based on 5/10 6m experience
[00:46] jason_t: so are you trying to argue his argument IS specific to unraised/SB scenario?
[00:46] Entity: it *is* specific
[00:46] Entity: because more people tend to call in bigger pots
[00:46] Entity: which means your hand will hold up less often
[00:46] Entity: but you will generally win a significant amount more bets
[00:46] Entity: *especially* in a game which plays aggressively
[00:46] jason_t: but in a game that plays aggressively
[00:46] jason_t: you will be losing a lot of bets postflop
[00:47] jason_t: the times you flop a draw
[00:47] Entity: no
[00:47] Entity: when you flop a draw in a multiway pot you are not losing bets
[00:49] jason_t: yes i understand that because you have an equity advantage relative to the size of the pot but you might end up losing bets when you flop something like a gutshot and end up trapped because you made bad decisions drawing to it and your effective odds get screwed up by a lot of aggressive raising
[00:49] jason_t: or if you flop a pair and end up with a weak trips/two pair draw
[00:51] Entity: I'm not saying it's an easy decision
[00:51] Entity: but I think Evan's response is very wrong.
[00:52] Entity: it's certainly close, and I don't think it matters a *huge* amount one way or another. you don't have to earn much on average to make it a profitable call, though, and people saying that JTo/QJo are easy calls here but 76o is a fold are incredibly wrong
[00:53] jason_t: JTo and QJo are very close for me
[00:53] Entity: I think in a multiway pot with coldcallers galore QJo is a worse call than 76o
[00:53] jason_t: i agree; offsuit broadway has bad reverse implied odds in this spot
[00:53] Entity: as you're rarely putting yourself in a reverse implied odds nightmare with 76o, but are often with QJ/JT
[00:53] jason_t: so i don't like 56o 67o 87o cause they are shitty hands; i don't like jto qjo cause of reverse implied odds
[00:54] Entity: well, you just don't like playing nonsuited/nonpair hands here and I don't blame you
[00:54] Entity: but hands like 76o really aren't hard to play here postflop *in general*
[00:54] Entity: sometimes they will be
[00:54] Entity: but it's more common that it will be fairly easy to play postflop
[00:54] jason_t: yeah most of the time you miss
[00:54] jason_t: but they aren't as easy as playing 22 here
[00:54] Entity: nothing is as easy as playing 22 here
[00:55] Entity: fuc[/i]k, playing JJ is harder than playing 22 here
[00:55] jason_t: an their easiness isn't a justification for calling
[00:55] jason_t: yeah JJ is tough here
[00:55] Entity: the other thing to remember
[00:55] Entity: is that when you call, you don't have to earn much to make this more profitable than folding
[00:56] Entity: I know, I know, folding is 0EV
[00:56] Entity: but you know what I mean
[00:56] jason_t: actually you do though because you have to make up for the times you flop something and don't win too
[00:57] Entity: isn't that the definition of reverse implied odds? /images/graemlins/smile.gif
[00:57] jason_t: /images/graemlins/smile.gif
[00:57] Entity: I definitely get where you're going with this
[00:57] Entity: and honestly, I would probably advise a lot of people to fold
[00:57] Entity: but if for some godforsaken reason josh asked me, I'd tell him to call
[00:58] Entity: and you, I think you could turn a profit by calling
[00:58] jason_t: oh most people have to fold, there is no question in my mind about that because most people make mistakes postflop regarding effective odds and everything else
[00:58] jason_t: yeah josh is one person who could play it correctly
[00:58] jason_t: and thank you, i'm flattered that you think i could /images/graemlins/smile.gif
[00:58] Entity: I can't guarantee it, but if you asked Clarkmeister what to do here I can say I'm 99% sure that he'd say call
[00:58] jason_t: clarkmeister won't make any mistakes postflop ever
[00:58] Entity: the things going for you:
[00:59] Entity: 1) you are good
[00:59] Entity: 2) your opposition is (clearly) bad
[00:59] Entity: 3) your hand is nicely hidden
[00:59] Entity: 4) you will often be able to force your opposition to define their hands fairly easily
[01:00] Entity: see Indiematty's post?
[01:00] Entity: /images/graemlins/smile.gif
[01:00] jason_t: well, i'm not a fan of declarative statements in situations like this without support so.... /images/graemlins/frown.gif
[01:01] Entity: well, the big point I wanted to make is that you can't really apply prock's essay (though it is a good essay) to this situation
[01:01] jason_t: yeah you may be right about that, but it kind of applies. it together with our conversation has convinced me this is a fold (for most people) /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Entity]

BTW, in the event that some of my poker logic is bad, I just got back from a full day of concerts so I'm a bit tired and am going to sleep now. However, despite some potential inconsistencies in some of my thoughts, I still think 76o is a call here.

Rob

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, in the event that some of my poker logic is bad, I just got back from a full day of concerts so I'm a bit tired and am going to sleep now. However, despite some potential inconsistencies in some of my thoughts, I still think 76o is a call here.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

And if mine is screwed, I played 1.5k hands tonight, folded one full house and three sets on the river and got drunk sweating pjn play the 215s. I am also retiring for the evening.

[Shillx]

Can't call fast enough. You will flop a money making hand more then one time in 12 here. Even if you only broke even postflop everytime you flopped a straight draw, 2-pair, trips+ you should call here.

Brad

[jason_t]

Linky (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=mediumholdem&Number=337689 9&Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25& Main=3369756&Search=true&where=&Name=187&daterange =&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodypr ev=#Post3376899). Read andyfox's post and Rick Nebiolo's reply.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Linky (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=mediumholdem&Number=337689 9&Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25& Main=3369756&Search=true&where=&Name=187&daterange =&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodypr ev=#Post3376899). Read andyfox's post and Rick Nebiolo's reply.

[/ QUOTE ]

jason, dont you think siegmund's reasoning will apply here as well (flush and str8 draws being comparable mathematically):

Link (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2101825&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1)