too paranoid of flush draws?

[the_joker]

This situation seems to come up all the time. The pot is pretty big on the turn, you think you have the best hand, you think your opponent could be on a flush draw. How big does pot need to be relative to you stack before you push? Am I missing a lot of value on theses hands by over-betting? This is $11's, so opponents may call anyway, but what about at higher levels?

I guess since this is a tournament, my thinking is that you don't want your opponents to draw out on you, even given incorrect odds, but maybe I'm taking this idea too far. Thanks for any advice!


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t1795)
Button (t1310)
SB (t1240)
Hero (t1470)
UTG (t1410)
UTG+1 (t1740)
MP1 (t2645)
MP2 (t1890)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t20, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t80) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t80</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t200</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls t120.

Turn: (t480) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1250 (All-In)</font>, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: t1730




PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
CO (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t20, MP1 calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t20, CO calls t20, Button calls t20, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t140) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t40</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t200</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t160.

Turn: (t540) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1280 (All-In)</font>, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: t1820

[lorinda]

Make 'em pay /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I like both of these, I might play the TTT a bit slower on both flop and turn, but the first hand I want to take down as my hand is well enough disguised to get callers anyway.

Lori

[lorinda]

Oh, FWIW I'm not keen on the KTs preflop if you are not entirely happy with your postflop skills.

Lori

[Chaostracize]

I agree.

Also, if you're afraid of flush draws, don't forget that if you bet half-pot you're still making them draw with poor odds. I opt for pot bet in hand 1, because there are a lot of hands that will pay this off and not an overbet, and 3/4 pot bet in hand 2.

With hands this good it's more important to worry about getting paid off then worrying about someone outdrawing you (although, they can be one and the same if you bet pot /images/graemlins/wink.gif).

[mlagoo]

Enhh...

First one, I don't like the check-raise. I bet out here hoping to get re-raised, which I would flat call. You're just showing so much strength, with a strong hand. =/

On the turn, I bet out about 350. You can make him call incorrectly without losing all the value from your strong hand.

The second one I fold preflop. Assuming I get to the flop, I definitely play the flop slower, and once again, just bet like 2/3 pot on the turn.


I just think that it's RIGHT to protect your hand.. But all you really need to do is make sure you aren't giving them the right odds to draw for a flush -- you don't need to scare them out of the hand when you're a big favorite.

[Paul2432]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree.

Also, if you're afraid of flush draws, don't forget that if you bet half-pot you're still making them draw with poor odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This assumes you can play the river perfectly. If the river is a diamond do you check fold? The opponent here could just as likely have KT as a flush draw. If you call then you are giving better odds than you think.

A secondary advantage of all-in on the turn is that you cannot make a mistake on the river.

Paul

[pokerlaw]

I like the way you played each on the flop. On the turn I don't push but I usually just bet the pot or t50-200 more than it if i think he will call that. but this looks good to and I find myself doing it every now and then...