Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand

[einbert]

Pacific Poker 10/20 6max. Somewhat loose game but most players are reasonable and not stupid.

The button is almost totally unknown, but I do have some information about him. I have only seen him play one hand out of several, and in that hand he called a raise from the BB and check/folded a flop with an A on it.

Folded to me in the CO and I raise K/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif, button who is unknown coldcalls, blinds fold

2 to the flop
Flop: (5.3 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif
I bet, button calls

Turn: (3.65 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif
I check, button bets, I call.

River: (5.65BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif
I bet, button raises, I fold.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

[kidcolin]

I hate your turn call. Rest seems OK.

[akishore]

i'd prefer bet/folding the turn over check/calling and then bet/folding the river when you hit a pair.

aseem

[JoshuaD]

I like bet/folding this turn, it seems that you have alot of fold equity and alot of improve equity here, and he's probably only raising a Q here.

[weevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Pacific Poker 10/20 6max. Somewhat loose game but most players are reasonable and not stupid.

The button is almost totally unknown, but I do have some information about him. I have only seen him play one hand out of several, and in that hand he called a raise from the BB and check/folded a flop with an A on it.

Folded to me in the CO and I raise K/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif, button who is unknown coldcalls, blinds fold

2 to the flop
Flop: (5.3 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif
I bet, button calls

Turn: (3.65 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif
I check, button bets, I call.

River: (5.65BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif
I bet, button raises, I fold.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your only read seems to indicate he might be a little weak tight. Just calling the turn raise is pretty bad. I'd either C/F or bet out. I'd probably bet out given the board. If he raises be done with it. The river bet is bad I think, since he'll probably bet a nine, and has a queen here often. I'd just C/C

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]

Your only read seems to indicate he might be a little weak tight. Just calling the turn raise is pretty bad. I'd either C/F or bet out. I'd probably bet out given the board. If he raises be done with it. The river bet is bad I think, since he'll probably bet a nine, and has a queen here often. I'd just C/C

[/ QUOTE ]

We've got a ton of outs on the turn, something like 22% equity.


[ QUOTE ]
The river bet is bad I think, since he'll probably bet a nine, and has a queen here often. I'd just C/C

[/ QUOTE ]

Alot of hands that we're beating check behind here that would have called. That's alot of value to give up.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
The river bet is bad I think, since he'll probably bet a nine, and has a queen here often. I'd just C/C

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't you think it's quite likely this player will check behind some sort of pocket pair that he would also call a bet with but not raise on the end?

I also think it's fairly likely that he will check behind a 9, although I agree he is often betting it. But why give him a chance to check behind with it if it's very unlikely he'll raise me with it?

[weevil]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The river bet is bad I think, since he'll probably bet a nine, and has a queen here often. I'd just C/C

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't you think it's quite likely this player will check behind some sort of pocket pair that he would also call a bet with but not raise on the end?

I also think it's fairly likely that he will check behind a 9, although I agree he is often betting it. But why give him a chance to check behind with it if it's very unlikely he'll raise me with it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, yes. I'm tired and drunk, and that makes me think weak tight. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[weevil]

Go to bed donk. I just bet the river and called a raise with eight high. I wish Elix Powers was here.

[einbert]

For those of you wanting to fold the turn, I'm curious as to what range of hands you put villian on. Due to the way he has played this hand,

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,084 games 0.005 secs 1,416,800 games/sec

Board: Qc Qd 9h 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 24.8024 % [ 00.21 00.03 ] { KsTc }
Hand 2: 75.1976 % [ 00.72 00.03 ] { TT-22, AQs-A9s, KQs-K9s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s, AQo-A9o, KQo-K9o, QJo-QTo, JTo }


Based on my range we have 24.8% equity. Based on the pot odds our breakeven equity is 1/5.65 = 17.7%.

callEV = (-1BB)+(.248 * 5.65BB) +ImpliedOdds
0 = -1BB + 1.40BB + ImpliedOdds
ImpliedOdds = -0.4 BB

So if our reverse implied odds add up to -0.4 BB or more, this is a fold. ALthough they are probably negative, I do not think they are nearly that negative.

[helpmeout]

Bet/fold the turn if he calls then check/call if you make a pair and check/raise if you make a straight on the river.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/fold the turn if he calls then check/call if you make a pair and check/raise if you make a straight on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we bet and get raised on the turn we will be getting a good price to see the river card. I'm not sure folding is correct in that case.


Whether I bet the turn and get called or check/call it, I like check/calling the river if it is a 9.

[einbert]

Personally I found the decision to fold to the river raise rather than pay it off close and interesting. I wonder why noone has commented on it yet.

[mr pink]

question, is it that out of the ordinary to check/fold a flop after you defend from the bb? is it necessary to make a move at every pot you get involved in? say you defend with J9s or T9o, the flop comes A 7 4 rainbow. are you giving up that much if you just check/fold? i'm confused how you're making a read of this guy out of one hand where he didn't do something that strange.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]

question, is it that out of the ordinary to check/fold a flop after you defend from the bb? is it necessary to make a move at every pot you get involved in? say you defend with J9s or T9o, the flop comes A 7 4 rainbow. are you giving up that much if you just check/fold? i'm confused how you're making a read of this guy out of one hand where he didn't do something that strange.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not out of the ordinary or incorrect to do this. I am simply trying to give the best reads I can, and as this was pretty much the only thing I had observed out of this guy so far I included it.

[sthief09]

I like it through the turn. the river is tough. I think that's probably good though I hate folding in general

[mr pink]

ok, i thought that you were commenting on the flop check/fold because it was out of the ordinary.