Overplaying a draw? $22 sng

[Olback]

Eurobet $22 sng

Was i overplaying the draw here. Seawray had been aggresive but not overly loose. When he bet so much i figured that he either had a pair and was trying to protect his hand or he was bullying me. I figured that with the 2 overcards and the flush draw i was in front. My question is, is that a good read? Also even if i figure that to be true is it worth gambling here with the blidns so low 15/30? I figured he would fold if he was on an airball

#Game No : 2637244018
***** Hand History for Game 2637244018 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:15368646 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Thursday, September 01, 21:41:31 EDT 2005
Table Table 13773 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 3: wyatt86earp ( $1410 )
Seat 4: sidsmom ( $2135 )
Seat 5: TSKFischer ( $940 )
Seat 6: Seawray ( $2200 )
Seat 7: Freidrich ( $255 )
Seat 9: AMMAR912 ( $335 )
Seat 10: Olback1 ( $725 )
Trny:15368646 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Olback1 [ Qs As ]
Freidrich folds.
AMMAR912 folds.
Olback1 raises [90].
wyatt86earp folds.
sidsmom folds.
TSKFischer folds.
Seawray calls [60].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, 2s, 5d ]
Seawray bets [250].
Olback1 is all-In [635]
>You have options at Table 14519 Table!.
Seawray calls [385].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Tc ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]
>You have options at Table 15137 Table!.
Seawray shows [ 5c, 2c ] a full house, Twos full of fives.
Olback1 shows [ Qs, As ] a pair of twos.
Seawray wins 1465 chips from the main pot with a full house, Twos full of fives.
Olback1 finished in seventh place.
Olback1 has left the table.
Game #2637248992 starts.

yes, he will call a little less than 400 chips. its very rare that this is a bluff, especially witht that overbet. Sux you have nice draw but u gotta muck.

FWIW, I limp here at Level 2. However, I doubt anyone will call your raise terrible. I fold the flop. When you put Villain AI, going with your read that he was bullying you, he was already pot committed. Turns out that he was making a sort of reverse semibluff, leaving him with no choice but to call if you reraised, or push the turn. I realize I'm stating the obvious here, but an alarm usually goes off in my head when I see this sort of bet at the low limits, unless I have a note on Villain that he's a complete donk.

[psyduck]

He's pretty pot-committed here, you should fold.

Also, I'd usually limp AQs with these blinds. You're putting in 1/6 of your stack for a 3x raise.

[BadMongo]

If the villian only has a pair, you're ahead here, but not by much (about 53%). I think it's pretty unlikely that he would lead out with an overbet like that if he had something stronger than top pair, and if you factor in the times he is bluffing (or semi-bluffing with a lower spade draw), I'd say you are a small favourtie here.

Despite all this, the correct play is probably to fold. The situation is very similar to a coinflip with a pair against AK. In the 22s, you'd want to fold the pair against an all-in if the other player showed you AK simply because your edge will be greater later in the tourny. Similarly, you should fold here since you just aren't that far ahead. If you had a few more chips to increase your FE, then I like the play a lot more.

[Chaostracize]

Wow. Preflop raise is fine. Postflop push is fine. He will fold hands sometimes even though he's not supposed to once he's got that much committed, and it is rare that you're worse than 50/50. I push this in a second at the 22s.

[BadMongo]

What hands would a big-stack villian at the 22s overbet the pot with, then fold to a reraise getting over 2.5:1?

[Chaostracize]

KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT. Some of those might even call when hero raises. If I remember correctly people at the 22s make this play often. Overbetting with overs because they want to "win it right there".

[BadMongo]

You are correct that people make this play often, if they were the ones making the PF raise. Hero made the initial raise here, and the villian called from the BB. Even at the 22s, its rare to see someone bet into a PF raiser with nothing. Especially an overbet. I've played quite a few 22s, and the villian's bet here tells me that he hit something, but he's vulnerable and he wants to take the pot down right away. Even with all the donks at the 22s, you have to give the villian credit for something that beats Ace-high (except another flush draw).

[Uppercut]

I hope before you left the table that you wrote a note regarding the donk who called your 3xBB PFR with his mighty 52s from the BB.