KQo - Who's raising the river?

[synbad13]

No reads on Villain

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?.

I'm thinking maybe he has a set... did I let nightmares of a big hand keep me from re-raising? Regardless of what he showed down, he could have made a str8 although that's unlikely and I now beat other 2pair hands. I sure don't want to get 3bet

What would you do on the end?

[Harv72b]

Against an unknown, I just call the river bet &amp; make a note on what he had. A turn check/raise usually means something big, and it's hard to imagine too many 2-pair hands on this board that a normal player would coldcall with preflop. The fact that you can't fold to a 3-bet also pushes me toward calling.

[paperboyNC]

I'd just call on the end. The queen likely changes nothing.

[KDawgCometh]

I'm just calling. If we raise we are gonna pay off a three bet, to which we are certainly beat, which could very well happen here often enough to suck. This is definetly one of those situations where I want a cheap showdown after the turn CR(and CR bluffs at this limit on the turn are sooooo rare), and be sure to take note on what the villian turns up here

[synbad13]

Interesting, I figured I would get a response or two in favor of raising.

[W. Deranged]

I's don't be findin' a raise her...

On the turn our villain could have:

-A set (3 x set threes, fours, sixes; one very unlikely set Ks; 9-10 total)
-Two pair (18 versions of Ks up; 27 other kinds of two pairs)
-A straight (16 versions of 75 and 16 versions of 52)
-Other draws, pair + draw hands, etc... let's say we weight this at like 14 hands for normal players).

Of the ~100 (neat how I did that, ehh...) we are now beating like 59 of them...

BUT... which of these will call a river raise? Not all the draws! So now we are behind the 32 straights and the 10ish sets, and some number of pairish hands... It's close regardless but I don't think we get there.

EDIT: particularly considering we're probably not folding to a three-bet and so we're risking more than 1 bet to win 1.

[Ninth Path]

I'll be the first. I raise.
I see a lot of AKo here...tons of party players just cold call even in position with AKo, or I often see myself having sucked out on an ugly, ugly, two pair. The other benefit of raising (and I actually think this is a big reason) -- you probably won't get 3 bet, because even if villain has a set, he'll probably figure you rivered a set.