Getting COMPLETELY and UTTERLY destroyed...

[Warik]

... and it's not even close. Yeah - it's only 5k hands - short term variance - etc... but not this bad. There's no way this is just "bad luck." I'm doing something wrong here. I'm 100% sure that my AF is too high, but I'm also 100% sure that's not the only thing I'm doing wrong (and I'm 100% sure I don't know how to fix that either).

I don't know why my AF is so high. I've been folding to turn raises from passive/straightforward players unless I have better than top pair or a draw with odds... I've been trying to avoid excessively bluffing in multiway pots... etc... but my AF is still up there.

I put in over 200 hours of play at $3/$6 and $5/$10 to build up the BR to get up here and I want to succeed in it, but I don't want to do it at the risk of going broke. If I'm running insanely bad that's one thing, but if I need to drop back to $5/$10 to figure things out I can accept that.

Thanks to rakeback I do still have 250BBs for $10/$20 on top of this 265BB downswing, so I could tough it out in $10/$20 for another 100BB and then drop back with 300BBs for $5/$10 if it comes to that.

Stats below... suggestions please. Be as harsh as you wish. You can't possibly say anything worse than I've said to myself already:

http://www.group-sales.com/~warik/1020_5k_stats.jpg

[New001]

From what I've heard (I've never played 10/20), but there is a lot more raising and semibluffing with less than top pair at that game.

[Warik]

[ QUOTE ]
there is a lot more raising and semibluffing with less than top pair at that game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've read that before several times, but in the ~10k hands or so prior to this downswing, whenever I'd call down after a turn raise I'd expect to lose - and did most of the time... at least that is what stands out in memory.

[New001]

You don't have to win a majority of the time for it to be profitable, but I'm sure you know that. Good luck with this - the only other things I see in your stats are maybe defend the BB more often and maybe play a few more hands? I'm really not qualified to help that much.

[DrSavage]

You fold too much. WtSD of 32 in combination with 21 vpip means you're letting them run over you.

[Catt]

I haven't played 10/20, but my impression acorss all previous levels is that outrageous AFs (and yours is nutso) are generally produced by folding too much instead of betting / raising too much.

[me454555]

Your AF is way off the charts. Try to get it down to 2, don't play raise or fold poker as much and try to call down more

[Entity]

You're folding your blinds too much and you're getting run over postflop.

Rob

[Warik]

[ QUOTE ]
You fold too much. WtSD of 32 in combination with 21 vpip means you're letting them run over you.

[/ QUOTE ]

AF is calculated as (Bet + Raise) / Call... perhaps my incorrect tendency to fold when I should call down is artificially increasing my aggro factor? In my overall $5/$10 stats I'm calling the river almost twice as much as I am now and my AF is significantly lower... [censored], I may be folding tons of hands that would have ended up being winners.

[arkady]

Folded to river bet: 58.

That is a serious, fundamental, basic problem.
Wow, I havent seen it that high in so long...its just scary.

[einbert]

You need to defend your blinds more and you're probably folding too much after the flop.

You're also probably running bad.

[Warik]

[ QUOTE ]
Folded to river bet: 58.

That is a serious, fundamental, basic problem.
Wow, I havent seen it that high in so long...its just scary.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just looked at my $3/$6 stats where I did best... wow... it is only 37% there. My AF was also significantly lower (albeit still a bit high) and it is because I was calling down more. WTSD & W$SD were 36.10 / 50.03.

omg... I think I'm losing because I'm playing scared... and here I've been all these days thinking I'm losing because I'm being too aggressive....

[___1___]

[ QUOTE ]
omg... I think I'm losing because I'm playing scared... and here I've been all these days thinking I'm losing because I'm being too aggressive....

[/ QUOTE ]

YOU NEED TO LEARN HOW TO CALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You're waaaaayyy too aggressive and you're running bad. Bad combination...

___1___

[BottlesOf]

Defend your bb more and HOLY [censored] LOOK AT YOUR POST FLOP AGGRESSION!!!!!!!!!!

[arkady]

Preach on J, with all these people flooding the 10/20 they are simply getting run over by the feverish aggression.

But in this case, our hero is simply not ready for 10/20.

[___1___]

[ QUOTE ]
But in this case, our hero is simply not ready for 10/20.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, this is absolutely right. Some more time at 5/10 will help alot.

___1___

[einbert]

Moving from 5/10 to 10/20 is very tough. I'm on my third try right now (over the span of three months time). It's not an easy jump and there's nothing that can really prepare you for it except spending a ton of time thinking about and analyzing situations, and playing hands.

[wheelz]

and rakeback. lots of rakeback.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
and rakeback. lots of rakeback.

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially now. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I can easily see how this game could destroy people, and am still fearing that it will get to me. I feel mostly comfortable, sometimes "lol" at the plays that people make, but I don't feel too much frustration. Then again, I'm about 5x as LAG as everyone who has posted recently saying that the 10/20 is tearing them up, so maybe I fit in better or am just running good.

[helpmeout]

Seriously move down to 1/2 you clearly have no idea what you are doing.

Look at your AF stats you bet every street nearly always.

Your stats tell me that you are probably a weak/tight ex ring player who does not know how to play postflop.

You clearly do not know what to do.

[7ontheline]

Yes, all the respected posters here are right. You are weak-tight. Go ahead and say it - it's not so bad. 10/20 is a miserably brutal game when you're not used to it. You're too tight preflop (a little) and you fold WAY too much postflop. I can't even say for sure that you're running bad - you may be running neutral but folding all your winners. Drop down now, build your roll back up, and next time play one table at 10/20 with a couple of 5/10s to get used to it.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks to rakeback I do still have 250BBs for $10/$20 on top of this 265BB downswing,

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't read this part the first time.

You need to move down immediately.

I would never play 10/20 6max without at least a $10k roll.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks to rakeback I do still have 250BBs for $10/$20 on top of this 265BB downswing,

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't read this part the first time.

You need to move down immediately.

I would never play 10/20 6max without at least a $10k roll.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

Surf

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks to rakeback I do still have 250BBs for $10/$20 on top of this 265BB downswing,

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't read this part the first time.

You need to move down immediately.

I would never play 10/20 6max without at least a $10k roll.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.


[/ QUOTE ]

i 3rd that notion. i have 12K after a 4K drop and am thinking about mvoing down to 5/10.

[yanicehand]

I wouldn't say 10k is a necessity for a veteran of the game and higher limits. (Edit: It's probably very rare that the aformentioned hypothetical player would have below 10k in his roll, but I've been there in the past and kept at it without much fear) But seeing as this is clearly not the case I would have to say that it is completely ludicrous that you are still playing 10/20 with that puny roll while getting hammered the [censored] out of at that game. (I'm not really upset or trying to berate you, but you said to be as harsh as possible and we all need a wake up call sometimes! Seriously though, sometimes its better to take the high road and admit you aren't ready for a game. There's no shame in surrender and it'd really be in your best interests to rebuild at 5/10)

Good luck with whatever you decide.

[ctv1116]

uh, tone down the aggression. Learn to call. Let the other players bluff. In fact, more bets can sometimes be made just calling down than "value" betting and raising. That said, you're also running bad, but there are serious flaws in your game regardless. I'd get a coach if I were you. kiddo sounds good. *waits for refer-a-friend payment*

[Warik]

Thanks a lot to everyone for your honest responses. I am going to head back to $5/$10 at least for the rest of Sept. to rebuild & re-learn. I clearly need to defend my BB more and call down more instead of blindly betting and folding at the first sign of trouble.

Maybe after fixing my problems and playing 30k or so solid hands of $5/$10 (which when added to what I already have will give me 500BBs for $10/$20) I can give it another shot.

[KidPokerX]

Besides the whole variance thing, you're simply not stealing as much as you should. Is this due to your table image or are you just not doing it? You should be making more on the button.
There are lots of other things (AF way too high, too loose on the BB), but it will take a lot of work.
My suggestion is that you re-read your books and take a strong look at your records.
You have lots of leaks, but they can be fixed.
Hang in there.

[bank]

defend your blinds more. steal more from co/button. stop being a nutcase postflop. see more showdowns.

[Warik]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides the whole variance thing, you're simply not stealing as much as you should. Is this due to your table image or are you just not doing it?

[/ QUOTE ]

No... I'm fairly confident my low stealing % is a result of getting crappy cards. My preflop standards haven't changed since $5/$10 and I was stealing about 36% in $5/$10 with a VPIP of rougly 24-25.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Folded to river bet: 58.

That is a serious, fundamental, basic problem.
Wow, I havent seen it that high in so long...its just scary.

[/ QUOTE ]



sample size of 122 for a binomial... might be a problem but you can't really say he's doing something horribly wrong from it. his AF, on the other hand, does scare me

[rory]

Don't feel bad. I think what happened to you is you were not used to the aggression at 10/20 and a lot of your tactics that worked at the lower limits, bet-folding a lot and folding to bets when scare cards hit, did not work very well at 10/20. There is nothing to feel bad about, you just applied the wrong strategy to the situation-- it only took you 5k hands to figure it out, which is pretty fast in my opinion. Why would you think you should play any different if it had been working before for the entirety of your poker career? I wouldn't have. I know that each time I moved up in limits I have gotten destroyed-- yes, some of it was due to bad cards, but most of the time it was due to not knowing how to best play the new game. I would think about it, drop down while rebuilding and come back to the higher game. You have learned from your time at 10/20, and once you rebuild a little bit and get your confidence back, you will be ready to rock the 10/20, I am sure.

[arkady]

Ay, I know man, but I am sick of harping on people and their dismal sample sizes. If thats what they are going to post, that is what we are going to work with. The aggression numbers are just so insanely messed up that I was at a loss for words.

[JrJordan]

FWIW my aggression numbers have dropped a significant amount since jumping from 5/10 to 10/20. The biggest difference I've been focussing on from advice at 2+2 is to really try and get to showdown. This means I end up doing a lot more calling instead of the occasional raise and fold to 3-bet because a large number of these players can semi-bluff 3-bet with a hand you beat. I also find myself checking through a lot more turns with the intention of inducing a river bet so I don't have to call a turn c/r and river bet with a marginal hand.

Standard question as well of how many tables you're playing? The difference between two and three tables for me right now is astronomical in the amount of information/reads I can get beyond PA stats. Ask yourself if you're getting the detailed reads necessary to beat this game.

[Shillx]

You really aren't folding too much. In fact, your fold% is lower then mine and I don't fold all that much.

The reason why your WTSD is so low is because you bet and raise people out of pots so much. Your call% is abysmal and it needs to go up. The reason why is because people bluff so much at this level and it is pointless to keep raising since they will just fold. Call more and let them keep showing down their bluffs instead of trying to stop them from bluffing. Your WTSD isn't low becuase you are folding winners. It is low becuase your AJ raises out JT on a A72 board. Milk those hands that have no shot against you.

Brad

[kahntrutahn]

[quoteI may be folding tons of hands that would have ended up being winners.

[/ QUOTE ]


There is no "may" to it... you most definitely are!

[oreogod]

Also, read How Good is Your Limit Holdem if u havent already. Many others on here agree w/ me (Nate and TT are two that enjoyed it) that it is one of the best books out there. Basically its a book that consists of 25 hands all in quizz format, u go through the hand, see how u did. The advice is solid and in consists of a great aggressive style.

See how u score, I guarenttee it will probably show u where u need to be betting/raising or folding more. And yeah, spend some time reading books and the forum, it should help u.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
You really aren't folding too much. In fact, your fold% is lower then mine and I don't fold all that much.

The reason why your WTSD is so low is because you bet and raise people out of pots so much. Your call% is abysmal and it needs to go up. The reason why is because people bluff so much at this level and it is pointless to keep raising since they will just fold. Call more and let them keep showing down their bluffs instead of trying to stop them from bluffing. Your WTSD isn't low becuase you are folding winners. It is low becuase your AJ raises out JT on a A72 board. Milk those hands that have no shot against you.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the best post of this thread and is spot on with what I have been telling warik on AIM. Use a little creativity instead of pound, pound, pound. Sometimes just check call all 3 streets with a stong holding. I even offerred to refer warik to one of my urology friends to take off a nut... way too much testosterone.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
one of my urology friends

[/ QUOTE ]

I find it odd that you have more than one of these

[Nietzsche]

Good post, but it is simply not true that he is not folding many winners. 58% fold to river bet, this is insanely high and it wouldn't even work at the lower limits.

[pyroponic]

[ QUOTE ]
I put in over 200 hours of play at $3/$6 and $5/$10 to build up the BR to get up here and I want to succeed in it, but I don't want to do it at the risk of going broke.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone mentioned this, but I think the OP moved up too fast, too quick. In fact, you shouldn't even be playing $10/20 6-max right now if you've ever played $3/6 6-max in the past (although that could change in the coming months).

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
one of my urology friends

[/ QUOTE ]

I find it odd that you have more than one of these

[/ QUOTE ]

Well let's see: 5 of my med school classmates went into this field. There were 6 residents that I worked with in training, and there are about 5 urologists I work with daily. Does that clarify?

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
My preflop standards haven't changed since $5/$10 and I was stealing about 36% in $5/$10 with a VPIP of rougly 24-25.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your VP$IP has dropped 3% despite the larger small blind? I'm not following this. Are you folding hands preflop due to shellshock tilt?

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post, but it is simply not true that he is not folding many winners. 58% fold to river bet, this is insanely high and it wouldn't even work at the lower limits.

[/ QUOTE ]
River stats are very hard to evaluate when the rest of your game is messed up. If you are constantly cracking the whip like OP then you won't see many river bets except when you are in trouble. Everything you beat is either already folded or calling you down.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good post, but it is simply not true that he is not folding many winners. 58% fold to river bet, this is insanely high and it wouldn't even work at the lower limits.

[/ QUOTE ]
River stats are very hard to evaluate when the rest of your game is messed up. If you are constantly cracking the whip like OP then you won't see many river bets except when you are in trouble. Everything you beat is either already folded or calling you down.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I asked here - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3312610&page=4&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1 - whether there was any correlation between VP$P, pf raise and folded at river. Maybe I should have asked about a correlation between folded at river and aggression on other streets?

[Warik]

[ QUOTE ]
Your VP$IP has dropped 3% despite the larger small blind? I'm not following this. Are you folding hands preflop due to shellshock tilt?

[/ QUOTE ]

No... I'm fairly confident I've been getting a disproportionate number of sucky preflop cards. If I haven't changed my PF standards, nothing else (within reason) could explain the drop in VP$IP.

(But, I acknowledge that sucky cards alone is not the reason I'm losing.)

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
No... I'm fairly confident I've been getting a disproportionate number of sucky preflop cards. If I haven't changed my PF standards, nothing else (within reason) could explain the drop in VP$IP.

[/ QUOTE ]
I love my start charts as much as the next person.

Are you telling me that you exercise no discretion at the table with your starting standards? Everything you do is determined in advance based on position and number of limpers, etc.?

You need to work on that. A winning 5/10 6-max player should have advanced to the point where he is making some preflop decisions based on stats, reads, table atmosphere, and image.