Disgusting run...

[TheBob]

MY past 2000 hands have been absolutly disgusting. I've lost 150bb over that time and it just seems like nothing can go right for me. If I win a pot it's small and I keep losing pots where it seems like I cant do much about it like my ace high flush vs someone's straight flush or my top two vs someone's set etc. Is it possibly that the deck's just been [censored] me over over the past 2000 hands or is it probably bad play? I really don't feel like I'm playing badly or any differently from before when I was handily beating the game.

[Taxmanrick]

Do you review your hands often? When I have a session or hand that goes badly, I usually play it back in PT to see where my mistakes were. Also, READ READ and Re-READ SSHE. When I find myself going through a down cycle, I go through the whole book again(I usually read bits and pieces every day---great bathroom read). What's helped me is posting my hands here. THEY WILL HELP!!!

[TheBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you review your hands often? When I have a session or hand that goes badly, I usually play it back in PT to see where my mistakes were. Also, READ READ and Re-READ SSHE. When I find myself going through a down cycle, I go through the whole book again(I usually read bits and pieces every day---great bathroom read). What's helped me is posting my hands here. THEY WILL HELP!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been reviewing hands and found that in a few instances I may have been able to save a bet but for the most part I just dont seem to be hitting any flops really.

[droolie]

Get a coach to sweat your play or just watch someone else and ask lots of questions.

[DrunkHamster]

Can I watch you droolie? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I'm serious actually, I think it would be really helpful for me to see how a player like you thinks. Anyway, I know it's probably not gonna happen, but what the hell /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[BluEsiNsOuL]

I've been running cold for a week until yesterday. I think I had 4 to 5 -100BB downswing, no major upswing at all, for at least 3000 hands. During that time I think I went on tilt by bluffing too much. The one thing I did that I feel helpful is to redo the hand quizzes of SSHE. It corrected some of the mistakes I've been making and assures me that for the most part I did the right thing.

[stlip]

Happened to me at the beginning of summer 2,500 hands from hell -- worse because I was thinking of moving up to 2/4 when a lot of the bad ones hit. By the time I was at 10,000 hands from the start of the downswing (mostly back at my old familiar stomping grounds at Party 1/2 full and 9 max) I had it all back, plus a couple hundred in reload bonuses and rakeback.


http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y264/stlip/downswingbegins.jpg

to this

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y264/stlip/downswingfini.jpg

[Shillx]

Just to give you an idea of what to expect...

I just had a run of about 2200 hands (~60 SNSs) where I dropped 36 buy-ins. When you lose a lot of SNGs, your standard deviation goes down. When you lose a lot of hands in limit (or win a lot), your SD tends to rise so also consider that. If you run a t-test on the results from the 60 games this is what you get:

x bar = -0.6 buy-ins
s = 1.2 buy-ins (this is fair IMO since it would be 1 if you lost every one)
n = 60
t-stat (u > 0) = -3.87
p = .00027

This kinda gives you an idea of what to expect from this game. If I just looked at this run of hands, I would conclude that there is a .027% chance that I'm a winner at this level. So there is little to no shot that I can beat these games from these nubmers. Truth? Anomaly? That I have no idea, but this game is really cruel at times.

Brad

Some of this can certainly be attributed to variance in the cards. On the other hand, a few losing sessions can be dangerous. For me, I started playing progressively worse and just needed a break from poker. (And by worse, I mean bad. See the new MicroPoster session thread if you need more.)

With that in mind, it's well worth your time to go back through your sessions and look over hands you played. Play them back in Poker Tracker. Look for little mistakes that occur often, or big mistakes that you made once-in-a-while. Sometimes in the heat of battle, betting 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif into a PFR with a board of 7/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gifA/images/graemlins/heart.gif starts to sound like a good idea. /images/graemlins/blush.gif If you're making plays like that consistently, that downswing will only continue.

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
this game is really cruel at times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aye, that is so true. I took a real beating tonight. I was playing tight-aggressive and not even getting all laggy like I often do. In 600 hands my BB/100 is -12.92. Against players whose average VP$IP is 30.

Sometimes you run cold. Sometimes you play like crap. Learning to tell which is which is tricky. If you have 10K hands you might want to post a stat snapshot. See who you can get to review you history as well. It's a big help.

-D

P.S. I consider getting my VP$IP in full ring down to 19 a moral victory for this session. I am beating back my lag, and not getting tilty when I lose a 11% of my BR in one session. Go me.