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View Full Version : Misplayed top set on monochrome board?

Mr. Curious
09-02-2005, 08:41 AM
$100-200 2-5 live NL game
9 handed

Stacks:
Hero (T600)
MP3 (T700)
Button (T390)

Hero is UTG+1 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Preflop: UTG folds, Hero raises to $20, MP1 & MP2 fold, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 8/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
Pot: $80

SB checks, Hero bets T$40, MP3 raises to T$140,

<font color="blue">MP3 read: MP3 is a fairly tight, aggressive, thinking player. He'll bet semi bluffs and will raise preflop with big pairs and big overcards. His raise means that he probably has a flush draw and is trying to buy a free turn card and the button. He could have 99 or a set, but that likelyhood is fairly low.</font>


Button pushes for T$370,

<font color="blue">Button read: Button is a semi-loose, aggressive player. Given the action in front of him, he only makes this bet with a flush or a set.</font>


SB folds, Hero pushes for $540,

<font color="blue">Hero figures that he is probably behind a flush, but has a strong draw to a boat. He pushes because he is trying to build a side pot with MP3 who he has put on a flush draw.</font>
jkkkk
09-02-2005, 08:52 AM
Looks good to me, MP3 can't fold a set at this point, maybe a flush draw, and your 2-1 against a flush to take down a 3-way pot. The only way this gets ugly is if MP3 flips a flopped flush, but I think his range is somewhat larger than just a flush.
Mr. Curious
09-02-2005, 01:45 PM
Bump
Yads
09-02-2005, 03:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Looks good to me, MP3 can't fold a set at this point, maybe a flush draw, and your 2-1 against a flush to take down a 3-way pot. The only way this gets ugly is if MP3 flips a flopped flush, but I think his range is somewhat larger than just a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to be worse odds than that if another player has a set.
Mr. Curious
09-02-2005, 04:00 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looks good to me, MP3 can't fold a set at this point, maybe a flush draw, and your 2-1 against a flush to take down a 3-way pot. The only way this gets ugly is if MP3 flips a flopped flush, but I think his range is somewhat larger than just a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to be worse odds than that if another player has a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

A quick check of the math shows that you are correct. If there is another set out there, then I have 4 outs on the turn and will have 7 outs on the river.

But I don't think MP3 is able to call with anything but at least a King high flush and if he flopped the nut flush, he played it very strangely. If he has a baby flush, then I think he will find a fold with two all-ins in front of him.
LethalRose
09-02-2005, 04:25 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looks good to me, MP3 can't fold a set at this point, maybe a flush draw, and your 2-1 against a flush to take down a 3-way pot. The only way this gets ugly is if MP3 flips a flopped flush, but I think his range is somewhat larger than just a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to be worse odds than that if another player has a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

you have top set, whys it matter if your opponents have a set
Vancity82
09-02-2005, 04:33 PM
Another set takes away three of his outs (to make a full house) against the flush.