can anyone call two on this river?

[charlieD]

party 15/30 (10 handed)
played about 3 orbits and have no stats on the villains in this hand but i had noticed utg+2 was loose and tricky and the button was very loose.
hero K /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
2 folds, utg+2 calls, 2 folds, hero raises, 1 fold, button calls, both blinds fold, utg+2 calls
3 to the flop
7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif
check bet call call
turn
8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
check bet call call
river
6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
utg+2 checks, hero checks, button bets, utg+2 raises, hero folds(?), button calls.
final pot 12.23 bb
i didn't want to bet the river because i felt i would have to call a raise because of the pot size. but on reflection attack may have been the best form of defence.
anyone play it any differently?

[The Truth]

pretty standard, I probly would have bet the river, considering how loose they are, and called a raise, but folded to a 3 bet.

[ QUOTE ]
party 15/30 (10 handed)
played about 3 orbits and have no stats on the villains in this hand but i had noticed utg+2 was loose and tricky and the button was very loose.
hero K /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
2 folds, utg+2 calls, 2 folds, hero raises, 1 fold, button calls, both blinds fold, utg+2 calls
3 to the flop
7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif
check bet call call
turn
8 /images/graemlins/club.gif
check bet call call
river
6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
utg+2 checks, hero checks, button bets, utg+2 raises, hero folds(?), button calls.
final pot 12.23 bb
i didn't want to bet the river because i felt i would have to call a raise because of the pot size. but on reflection attack may have been the best form of defence.
anyone play it any differently?

[/ QUOTE ]
You played it fine on every street in my opinion, although the river play is very close between betting and checking. Versus one opponent I am betting that river every time cuz i know he will show me some kind of a pair(hoping I have AK) alot more than he will raise with a flush. Against two opponents I see nothing wrong with a check here, but I admit its close since they both could have somekind of cheezy pair trying to snap AK. Once you check and it goes bet raise, I think you have a safe fold, not only do you have to fear the flush but you have to fear that an idiot actually slowplayed trip 4s to the river.

[rigoletto]

I would bet this river about 100%. A flushdraw would have raised somewhere and so would a 4. A 5 in someones hand is not very likely. You will sometimes see the slowplayed boat, but not very often. In genereal you'll be ahead here more than 50% of the time with at least one guy paying you of. Bet and call a raise.

In addition your play is consitant with AK, so UTG+2 might be trying to buy the pot on the river (a good play IMO).

[Jeffage]

Betting the river solves all your problems I think. Obviously, the river wasn't a great card but I think you will be called by any two pair often since they put you on ace high potentially. Also when you check and the button bets, the tricky guy may see an opportunity to steal the pot (as in, button is valuebetting two pair but won't be able to call a raise poss if I rep a flush or straight so I'll raise and potentially squeeze the guy in the middle-who could have the best hand-out). The way you played the riv sets you up to make a potentially costly laydown. I'd bet the end and call a raise (but not overcall prob).

Jeff

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet this river about 100%. A flushdraw would have raised somewhere and so would a 4. A 5 in someones hand is not very likely. You will sometimes see the slowplayed boat, but not very often. In genereal you'll be ahead here more than 50% of the time with at least one guy paying you of. Bet and call a raise.

In addition your play is consitant with AK, so UTG+2 might be trying to buy the pot on the river (a good play IMO).

[/ QUOTE ]
I like your reasoning, and I think its true that if youre agaisnt decent opponents a flush draw or a 4 wouldve already shown aggression on an earlier street. But most people do not play so decently or logically, and with no reads i dont see anything wrong with a check here, but I wouldnt call betting here a mistake either, I think its close enough between betting and checking that either strategy will be close in expectation. As far as the one player trying to buy the pot, this is unfortunately a possibility, but most players are not capable of this move so i wouldnt worry about this too much, I still think the hero should fold to the raise. Sometimes the hero will fold the best hand, but I think he will save more money folding the loser than he will win the few times his hand does hold up.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
But most people do not play so decently or logically

[/ QUOTE ] which is a very good reason to bet!!!!!

[ QUOTE ]
and with no reads i dont see anything wrong with a check here, but I wouldnt call betting here a mistake either, I think its close enough between betting and checking that either strategy will be close in expectation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it is close. A bet here will be worth at least one third BB on average!

[Jdanz]

i concur

[elindauer]

I'd have bet the river with so many potential payoff hands out there. If I checked and it came back to me 2 cold on a 4-straight, 3-flush, paired board, I'd fold and congratulate myself on having the instinct not to value bet the river.

-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
In addition your play is consitant with AK, so UTG+2 might be trying to buy the pot on the river (a good play IMO).

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? What hand does UTG+2 hold that calls a bet on the turn with a board of 8744 2 diamonds, that cannot beat ace-high when the 6d hits the river?! If UTG+2 puts hero on AK, he will call going for an overcall, since he has to fear that the bettor has hit this ultimate scare card.

I find it unlikely that UTG+2 is making a move here. If he has a pair, he has to put the bettor on a bluff AND hero on an overpair AND hero on the type to fold an overpair to justify his action. Not likely. It's MUCH more likely that UTG+2 simply made a flush on the river.

-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
... when you check and the button bets, the tricky guy may see an opportunity to steal the pot (as in, button is valuebetting two pair but won't be able to call a raise poss if I rep a flush or straight so I'll raise and potentially squeeze the guy in the middle-who could have the best hand-out)...
Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you are putting the raiser on the following hand: An overpair to the 8-high board, but he didn't raise preflop, didn't raise his overpair on the flop, didn't raise his overpair on the turn, and now that the river completes every draw in the world, he's going to check-raise someone else who certainly looks like he was drawing the whole time in an effort to squeeze out exactly the hand hero holds. Is that about right? He reads the river bettor, who has been calling the whole way, for 2 pair?

I concede that the tone of the OP makes it sound like he would have won if he'd called. However, I am highly skeptical of the "expert" analysis in this thread explaining how the river check allowed UTG+2 to outplay him. I find this scenario highly unlikely.

-Eric

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
Huh? What hand does UTG+2 hold that calls a bet on the turn with a board of 8744 2 diamonds, that cannot beat ace-high when the 6d hits the river?!

[/ QUOTE ]

OP says

[ QUOTE ]
But most people do not play so decently or logically

[/ QUOTE ] and [ QUOTE ]
but i had noticed utg+2 was loose and tricky and the button was very loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

My answer: any hand with 2 overcards or an 8 really.

[TStoneMBD]

my first assessment was that i like the river check, but part of rigolettos analysis changed my mind.

he says that its unlikely that someone has a flush draw as you probably would have seen a raise somewhere on the flop. certainly noone has a 4 and a 5 is unlikely. that makes me favor betting the river and calling a raise as everyone has said.

i however do agree with elindauer that rigolettos analysis that youve played your land like AK sets you up for a bluffraise on the river after you check... makes no sense. if someone is buying the pot, they are buying it with a pair. they have no reason to try and bluff AK off of an overcall.

i dont think you set yourself up to get outplayed by checking this river. all draws hit and someone would have to have some strong stones to raise a smaller pair to drive out a possible larger pair after someone bet this river.

[charlieD]

utg+2 shows J /images/graemlins/heart.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif a pair of fours
button shows A /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif two pairs, sixes and fours

thank you all for your insightfull analasys
next time im going to grit my teeth and bet the river

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
i however do agree with elindauer that rigolettos analysis that youve played your land like AK sets you up for a bluffraise on the river after you check... makes no sense. if someone is buying the pot, they are buying it with a pair. they have no reason to try and bluff AK off of an overcall.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but if he no longer fears hero (because of the check), he has good reason to try and bluff button to fold.

[Tzak]

After he does this,do you then put down cr riv bluff on his notes?