Final table hand of a Party 50+5

[psyduck]

Okay push? Everyone has been playing tight so far. I have only shown down AQ an orbit ago. I hated myself after this push because I'm pushing into the chipleader (Baddbo), but I have ~9BB.


***** Hand History for Game 2639405492 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:15375592 Level:16 Blinds (2000/4000) - Friday, September 02, 05:05:34 EDT 2005
Table Multi-Table(444763) Table #1 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 2: Hero ( $36948 )
Seat 6: Chump ( $33695 )
Seat 4: ducgoose ( $113328 )
Seat 10: Bullywulf ( $120 )
Seat 1: TeachingPro ( $38959 )
Seat 3: Baddbo ( $153200 )
Seat 5: db281081 ( $12952 )
Seat 7: TomA318 ( $55050 )
Seat 9: zombi31 ( $25748 )
Trny:15375592 Level:16
Blinds (2000/4000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 6d 8d ]
ducgoose folds.
db281081 folds.
Chump folds.
TomA318 folds.
zombi31 folds.
Bullywulf folds.
TeachingPro folds.
Hero is all-In [34948]

[psyduck]

[censored] I WASTED A FINAL TABLE WHERE EVERYONE WAS PLAYING TIGHT AND I COULD POTENTIALLY STEAL LIBERALLLLY. AAAAARGH!!

[betgo]

With 8xBB, push suited gapper from SB. It doesn't matter if BB is likely to get called. You are unlikely to be in bad shape if called. You have pot odds and folding equity. I push any average or above hand here.

I gather he called and busted you. What did BB have? I doubt you were dominated.

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
With 8xBB, push suited gapper from SB. It doesn't matter if BB is likely to get called. You are unlikely to be in bad shape if called. You have pot odds and folding equity. I push any average or above hand here.

I gather he called and busted you. What did BB have? I doubt you were dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. He had 55 (I was so happy when I saw it, because he called ultra-fast, and I was actually a favorite).

This would be an auto- allin on a STT assuming a tightish range for the big stack (nothing he had done told me otherwise). Does the same principle exist in a very top heavy payout MTT structure? Does it make more sense to not squeeze every bit of EV out if it means people will be eliminated and I get to advance spots? Note that there's a micro stack (0.1BB) sitting around.

In retrospect, it was such a marginal all-in, and since big stacks tend to loosen up compared to medium stacks, I should have either completed or folded. Maybe, maybe not.

All in all, I think I'm being results-oriented, but this was my first final table of a good sized MTT (I usually just 8-table 30+3 STTs), and this hand made me puke when I got $350 for 9th when 1st was $5K+

(xposted a little in the STT forum)

[psyduck]

Another question: would you make the call with 55 in that position as BB?

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Another question: would you make the call with 55 in that position as BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

With his stack? Hell yeah.

[betgo]

So you were the favorite plus pot odds. I don't think you can fold 86s here. Atleast half the time villain will fold, because he has junk.

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
So you were the favorite plus pot odds. I don't think you can fold 86s here. Atleast half the time villain will fold, because he has junk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couple things:

1. He is the chip leader. Doesn't that mean his range widens a little? The old adage: don't try to steal from huge stacks or tiny stacks.
2. I'm pushing with 9 BB (sorry, mistake earlier). This is marginal in the first place. 10 BB would be cutoff point where I would fold.
3. There are smaller stacks than me. Even a very very tiny stack.
4. Payout is very top heavy. Does this mean I should be playing for 1st, but settle for 9th (i.e. get all the EV I can accumulate)?? Even 5th gets $1K+. Should I have been more patient?

Like I said, this would be an autopush in a STT, but I don't know if it'd be any different just because it's a very top-heavy MTT.

[betgo]

Even if his calling range is wide, he still has to fold about half his hands. If he wants to call with junk, that's OK with you too.

Half the time, you gain 1.5xBB when he folds. So you need to lose less than 1.5xBB the other half of the time. With pot odds, you need to have a 38% chance if called. It seems like is is EV+, particularly when compared with losing .5xBB by folding (If you complete, villain probably pushes with a hand he would call a push with. What do you do then?). Also, he may call somewhat less than half the time.

If there was ante or the BB was tight, this would be a real easy push.

You can push with a suited gapper from earlier position, as the likelihood of being called does not go up that much, and you don't mind too much being called by a strong hand like AK or AQ.

While you can wait for a couple of people to bust, you are better off gambling for the big money. This is a classic gambling play, as there is a good chance you will be called and it will be close to a toss up. Unfortunately, you lost the gamble. If you had won the hand and taken 2nd in the tournament, you probably would not have posted this.

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if his calling range is wide, he still has to fold about half his hands. If he wants to call with junk, that's OK with you too.

Half the time, you gain 1.5xBB when he folds. So you need to lose less than 1.5xBB the other half of the time. With pot odds, you need to have a 38% chance if called. It seems like is is EV+, particularly when compared with losing .5xBB by folding (If you complete, villain probably pushes with a hand he would call a push with. What do you do then?). Also, he may call somewhat less than half the time.

If there was ante or the BB was tight, this would be a real easy push.

You can push with a suited gapper from earlier position, as the likelihood of being called does not go up that much, and you don't mind too much being called by a strong hand like AK or AQ.

While you can wait for a couple of people to bust, you are better off gambling for the big money. This is a classic gambling play, as there is a good chance you will be called and it will be close to a toss up. Unfortunately, you lost the gamble. If you had won the hand and taken 2nd in the tournament, you probably would not have posted this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow thank you, this is exactly what I needed to hear.

[diebitter]

Don't sweat it, it was a good decision, poor result.

He shows anything other than an overpair, you're in good shape, and the odds of that on such a late raise were pretty low.

[adanthar]

It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)

However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)

However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)

[/ QUOTE ]

What sucks about this table is that stacks are PERFECT for the hero to go nuts and steal like it's his job off the small and medium stacks, and that's the kind of situation where you don't mind risking busting early (if someone wakes up with Aces) for a chance to take over the table and steamroll your way to first. HOWEVER the position is horrendous with the big stack to the hero's immediate left. My thinking at this point is how to remove this road block. So how do we do that?

Well best case is that there is no road block. The guy's not bullying his stack and you can raise into him all day. Then just proceed with plan A and suckout if he finds a hand.

But more often the big stack knows hes a big stack and has some aggro in him. In a spot like this with 86s I would just complete as sort of a test. If he comes over the top or if he checks, you can guage his aggression levels. Also, in the ideal case where you get to a flop, you have a chance to weasel your way to a double up and REALLY be in a good spot to take things over. And if you whiff or he raises, not much harm done, just figure out a new plan.

This post was as much of a question as an answer. It's an interesting stack situation that needs a full game plan beyond this hand. Any thoughts?

Everett

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)

However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)

[/ QUOTE ]

What would you do? Fold 86s in the SB.

Villain has pot odds and knows SB doesn't need a big hand to push. 35% or less of hands calling is reasonable, but a big stack could call with close to 50%. There are a lot of resaonable hands with high cards or whatever. Plus, a big stack can afford to make a marginal call to discourage attacks on his blinds. I don't see that as idiotic.

I am not convinced this is $EV-, but chip EV+. I don't have the exact payout structure, but the money is in the top places. The difference between 9th and 6th places is tiny by comparison to the jumps for the top 3 places, so I say gamble.

If you were already a big stack, a coin flip with another big stack might not be good, since you would be risking a fairly sure shot at a top place.

[adanthar]

Sigh. You know, I said this in the last thread we both posted in, but again, you've got 2700 posts, 4 in this thread, and I still have to see a shred of math.

Let's start with the fact that I JUST SAID that if he calls with the top 50%, you lose chips on the play and that the looser he is, the worse this push. Further, if he makes calls that bad, you will shortly have a big edge over him with a hand that is outright +EV against his calling range.

I've done the math on what you're asking, BTW, but I'm not posting it solely because I want to see you actually do it for once. I'll give you all the variables: there are 470,000 chips in play, an approximately 23.5K prize pool, and according to Party's payout structure, after 350 is taken out for ninth it leaves about $13K in play. However, because you are close to certain to move up at least one spot if you fold here or just complete, you can assume that everyone is guaranteed ~$500 (unless you push, get called, and lose).

Now do the math.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)

However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank god for you, Adanthar. I wanted to say this, but I don't feel like I have enough clout on the forum to be a dissenter.

The top-heavy payout structures of MTTs makes cEV much closer to $EV than they are in STTs, but that doesn't mean that marginal +cEV situations should always be pursued. Especially when somebody's getting anted out next hand.