QQ and river overbet, $100NL

[CourtesyFlush]

I wanted to post this to get some information about "typical" $100NL players. Does checking the turn and then overbetting the river when you check behind usually mean a monster? Usually when a player overbets, I put them on either a monster or a complete bluff. Here I thought it was more likely that the player had a very stong hand than nothing at all. SB was an aggressive player but not dumb aggressive. He seemed to be pretty solid. Comments on my play here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Hero ($100.95)
CO ($93)
Button ($102.80)
SB ($377.67)
BB ($21.90)
UTG ($99)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($9) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, SB calls $8.

Turn: ($27) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($27) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $30</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $57

[xorbie]

He either wiffed a turn check/raise or missed his draw. But honestly, if he was trying to induce a raise with his pussy ass flop bet, you'd think he'd either 3-bet the flop or lead the turn, which might induce me to call here.

[amoeba]

I actually like betting the turn here.

its unlikely hes on an A. that A couldn't have hurt you.

its not like you have AK, miss the flop, turn comes another blank, and you still have A high, then ok, check the turn but here I like betting the turn.

[CourtesyFlush]

[ QUOTE ]
He either wiffed a turn check/raise or missed his draw. But honestly, if he was trying to induce a raise with his pussy ass flop bet, you'd think he'd either 3-bet the flop or lead the turn, which might induce me to call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The very small flop bet was very odd for this player, he had been very aggressive and was usually betting near the pot. I thought it couldve been a set trying to induce a raise or maybe a straight draw trying to see the turn cheaply.

[awarunn]

The check on the turn doesn't seem suspect. You raised so it seems typical to check it to you since you are the aggressor here. When you checked behind it may have seemed weak to him (it was weak). I think your check on the turn made for a tough decision here on the river. It is hard to say what he has here. He could have TT or JJ and legitimately think they're good...although if this was the case it seems like he ought to have made a value bet. Maybe he had AK and overplayed them on the flop and hit on the river? The river bet would still be big though... I think I would have bet the turn. What was your line when you checked the turn? Were you hoping to check it down from there? I would've bet something like $15 on the turn and folded to a good raise. If he called the turn I check call the river when the ace hits? I guess I just don't understand your check on the turn.

[CourtesyFlush]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually like betting the turn here.

its unlikely hes on an A. that A couldn't have hurt you.

its not like you have AK, miss the flop, turn comes another blank, and you still have A high, then ok, check the turn but here I like betting the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't afraid of the A on the turn, I checked for pot control reasons. I don't think he's calling with a hand worse than QQ there, and I don't mind giving a straight draw a free card because the times he misses, he will very likely bluff on the river. I was ready to call any reasonable bet, but the overbet changed things for me...it made it seem more likely that he missed a turn checkraise with a set or a hand like A9/A8. I'm not saying it was the right play, but that's what my thought process was at the time.

[tdomeski]

I think you are better served only raising to $6 on the flop. .it makes it easier to bet the turn which in turn would make the river easier to play.

As it stands I fold the river as punishment to myself for not betting the turn.

and fwiw I'm not sure about these party $100 NL games but this river bet isn't really an overbet a lot of times I see these pot sized leads with sets or straights.

[CourtesyFlush]

[ QUOTE ]
The check on the turn doesn't seem suspect. You raised so it seems typical to check it to you since you are the aggressor here. When you checked behind it may have seemed weak to him (it was weak). I think your check on the turn made for a tough decision here on the river. It is hard to say what he has here. He could have TT or JJ and legitimately think they're good...although if this was the case it seems like he ought to have made a value bet. Maybe he had AK and overplayed them on the flop and hit on the river? The river bet would still be big though... I think I would have bet the turn. What was your line when you checked the turn? Were you hoping to check it down from there? I would've bet something like $15 on the turn and folded to a good raise. If he called the turn I check call the river when the ace hits? I guess I just don't understand your check on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

To address the turn check, I did it for these reasons:

If I bet the turn and he semi bluff checkraises me with a draw, I fold the best hand.

If I bet and he calls and makes a decent sized bet on the river when he misses, I have to fold the best hand.

If he has a draw and misses, he will very likely make a reasonable bet on the river as a bluff and I will win those bets.

If he has top pair or middle pair, he won't be able to call a decent bet on the turn, but will likely call a value bet on the river.

Thats why I like a turn check. As for the river, like I said, I put the player on absolutely nothing, or something very strong. The only "nothing" he could have played here is 67s or JTs imo. If the flop was suited, I would have called the river. I thought it was much more likely that he was betting a set or A9/A8 that caught on the turn.

Of course, there is always the possibility that I am giving my opponent way too much credit and he made a bet that makes no sense with something like K9. /images/graemlins/frown.gif Part of the reason I posted is to find out how often typical $100NL players make really out of line bets with mediocre made hands.

[amoeba]

you have good reasons this is the reason most people check the turn.

however. lets say turn wasn't an A and it wasn't a straight draw but rather a flush draw on the flop.

do you still check the turn?

see my point?

i guess it depends on what "pretty solid" means. in my experience, if a fish overbets on the river when the turn is checked, it usually seems to be because of frustration that he didn't get any chips in on the turn and now he just wants to make up for the lost value. this happens a lot in my opinion. especially since it kiiiinda looks like a bluff. i'm pretty certain he has the set.