Anouther quest/log type post

[Dave Mac]

I am mainly, well almost exclusively, a semi-pro limit player. And like everyone else I started small, online and have been able to work my way up to the point that for the last few months I have been playing 50-100 to 150-300 online and live. However, about 3 weeks ago, like many of the other mid-high limit HE posters I hit a vicious down swing, losing about 53K. Since then, playing a bit smaller, but also many of the same games I had won back about ½ of that. However, after this last week losing about 15k, not that much but never the less, I realized that even if I am currently good enough to beat the games, my game and skills are stagnating. I am not playing as well as I should and can, I have gotten lazy, it is the same old story all over again. I still play but I don’t study of learn. So, obviously I need to remedy this, and to that end I am going to switch form Limit HE to NLHE.
My idea is to post a journal; similar to the one bruiser posted, but more frequently, every Wednesday night or Thursday morning, when my week ends. I do have a bit of NL experience so I am not going to start at the lowest limit but I will start at 3-6NL. Honestly, even that hurts the ego, even more so posting this.
So, here are my goals,
A) post a lot of hands, like at least a couple a day.
B) Play 1000 hands a day playing 3 tables to start, 4 after I get the hang of it.
C) Make it to 25-50 NL by Jan 1.
I’ll start with 12,000 I have plenty more, obviously, but I want to move up based on my winning in NLHE, rather than the BR I have built playing limit. So, I am not totally sure how nl win rates work but my impression is that a good wr is about 10-15 Big Blinds per 100. Is that correct? Working under that assumption, my plan is to play 3-6 NL for about 1 month or 30K hands. At 10 BB per hundred that is 600 a day or about 18K for the month. If I make 18K before the end of the month I will move up, if it takes longer it takes longer.
So, when I get to 30K, about Oct 1., I will move to 5-10 NL which I will play till I get to 60K, at which point I will move to 10-20NL. Hopefully, that will take about a month or till Nov. 1. I figure that a 125K br should be enough at 25-50 NL. So, I will have about 2 months to make 65K. At 10-20, in 1000 hands per day, you only need a win rate of just over 5BB/100 to make that, so that should not be too hard, hopefully.
So that is my plan. Does it sound ok, any glaring flaws?
O, also an aside, I think that with some exceptions, NL HE is becoming the biggest game, the highest limits, online and live, which is just one more reason to learn it.
Dave

[AZK]

You would do yourself a favor to play less and study more in the beginning. Thousands of threads have asked who is good/bad what threads are good/bad. Search Search Search. Read the entire archives, etc. This will help you much more so than learning. I wouldn't play 3 tables to start. I would get basics down. It's all great in theory, but you can't expect to put up those numbers for a while. I couldn't sit down at 15/30 and win 2bb/100 even though I have the roll. Get what I'm saying? This game is not as easy as it looks. I've been playing for a little more than a year and still make countless expensive mistakes. The list goes on and on. Get my point?

Edit: PS maybe we can work something out since we live near each other and I want to learn limit. PM me if this interests you.

[tdomeski]

[ QUOTE ]
I will have about 2 months to make 65K. At 10-20, in 1000 hands per day, you only need a win rate of just over 5BB/100 to make that, so that should not be too hard, hopefully.

[/ QUOTE ]

What happens if in that first week you drop $10K+. . .how are you going to handle that?

[Allinlife]

good to see you being optimistic.

I have some doubts on your chances of completing this quest as planned, but with dicipline, effort, and being open to peer feedbacks, I think you have a shot at it. Even if it might take a bit longer than your planned dates.

gl

[tdomeski]

I just think people who have these visions of granduer underestimate the mental toll that losing $10K in a day and the effects of that on your play. . . Especially if you aren't a NL regular, you may have trouble avoiding tilt.

[Dave Mac]

I a.m not sure if you read the begining of my post but I have been playing ep100 - 200 to 150 - 300 to even a little 300 - 600 limit hold'em. so while there be many challanges losing 10k in a day will not phase me. I have won or lost 20k in day a couple times. so like I said losing 10k sucks but I mean it is not going to tilt or rattle me.
dave

[LethalRose]

[ QUOTE ]
a good wr is about 10-15 Big Blinds per 100. Is that correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thats a little high.

[Dave Mac]

then what is a good to ave wr? in limit, at the higher limits, 1.5-2 bb/100 is great, at lower limits it is mediocre. what are the nl equivlents?

[Prevaricator]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a good wr is about 10-15 Big Blinds per 100. Is that correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thats a little high.

[/ QUOTE ]

its not; that is 5-7.5PTBB/100

some people on this board make over 8

[LethalRose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a good wr is about 10-15 Big Blinds per 100. Is that correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thats a little high.

[/ QUOTE ]

its not; that is 5-7.5PTBB/100

some people on this board make over 8

[/ QUOTE ]

my bad i thought he meant 10-15 PTBB/100

[creedofhubris]

You're talking about at least 5 hours of poker every day for three months. No breaks, no weekends off.

Sounds rather grueling.

As for the number figures, you're describing the higher end of win rates. Based on your success in the nosebleed limit games, I have no doubt you'll end up with a positive win rate, but there are very few players making 10-15/100.

(P.S. Semi-pro my ass.)

[ggbman]

Dave, i don't see why you don't just tough out it out at some of the lower limit games online while learning NL. I don't see how taking on a new game where you have much less experience after a massive downswing is good for you.

I hope you suceed in your gaols, but i think it's ambitious to think you can just move up the ladder like that without taking more time to adapt to better competition. You do realize playing the 25-50 game, you can easily drop 50k in one night? It wouldn't even be a bad downswing, it would just be a bad night.

Gabe

[Ulysses]

Missed those Sept 1 hand posts!

[pofi]

[ QUOTE ]
Missed those Sept 1 hand posts!

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you mean?

[tom]

please post. i would like to know how real players do it.

i had a really long break even streak at 15/30 limit, and so decided to try nl. i had no clue, and thought the 10/20 nl was the same level as the 15/30 limit, and so jumped in. /images/graemlins/blush.gif i have not lost all of my money yet. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Dave Mac]

sorry i know, i was just getting back from fl and had not had a chance to play. i will post hands tonight.
dave

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]
and thought the 10/20 nl was the same level as the 15/30 limit, and so jumped in

[/ QUOTE ]

I think many limit players would be insulted hearing that 15/30 is comparable but probably little lower than 3-6NL...

[Dave Mac]

ok first, play nl may not be the best thing, initally for my wr, i could, i would assume make much more playing 20-40 or 30-60 or whatever online. however, i feel totally stagnent as a player i am not learning anything new, i am not getting better. in fact i am not sure but i could easily be getting worse and sloppier. and that is not good. further, my goal is to be good enough and have the br to play big, maybe not 4-8k big but like a 400-800 regualr. so i have to get real good and do anything i can to get better. so this is what i think is best for me in the long run.
finally, i want to get to where i can play 25-50 by jan 1. i am not saying that by jan 1 i want to play the 25-50 game exclusivly, just where i can take shots and play when it is good, and have the br to step up more permenatly if i want to.
dave

[lapoker17]

I would just like to say that after reading your post, I think you can come close to your goal. Limit swings are nuts and you seem to handle them well. Also, you seem to be rolled properly and have little aversion to risk. I think with time you will be able to beat most games. I've played and play pretty high live, yet I'm often lost when I see the ridiculous all-in fests in the 50-100 and the like - Just a crazy fing game. That game makes Commerce look like the Florida Hard Rock, and I don't know how you prepare for madness like that.

Good Luck.

[tom]

i am glad that i was too new to no limit, and not smart enough to know the equivalent levels between limit an nl.

so can i assume that the 10/20 nl is about the same as 50/100 limit or a bit higher?

i am sure that i am the fish at 10/20 no limit, but strangely feel comfortable playing it now.

gotta play with the best to learn, and i have learned a lot very quickly. glad to say that i still have money in my bankroll, and know that i am smart enough to know that i cannot beat the game yet /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

maybe some day.

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]
so can i assume that the 10/20 nl is about the same as 50/100 limit or a bit higher?


[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know cause I dont play any of these. I think general opinion is that 50/100 limit is bigger game (bigger means bankroll/swings/profit wise) but my intuition tell me that these games are more or less the same level.
I think that great 2kNL player can earn much more per hand than 50/100 limit player for example but swings are certainly higher at limit.

Best wishes

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
losing 10k in a day will not phase me.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about losing 10k in a hand? Or going from +10k to -10k in a single orbit? Keep in mind that you'll need to get used to this kind of nonsense to play in the 25-50NL.

[Ulysses]

Re: your quest, I think you're underestimating how tough, especially psychologically, the bigger (5-10NL and up) NL games can be, especially on people who are primarily limit players. I suspect you have a good chance at achieving your goal, but it'll probably take quite a bit longer than your plan. I fully agree with your approach re: this improving your overall poker game. I've dabbled a fair amount across limit/NL/Omaha/random other games/tourneys/live/online for reasons of boredom and improving my game and it has definitely helped.

[Dave Mac]

what type of time table would you set out? where do you think the problems will come, moving from 5-10 to 10-20 nl? Lack of understanding or pysc. factors? Anything I should definatly avoid doing or not doing?
thanks
dave

[captZEEbo1]

Something to add to your quest. Have you considered doing something like keeping two tables of 30/60 limit open and just go on autopilot while you REALLY concentrate on like 1-2 tables of nl cash? This might help in keeping up a nice earn rate, especially if you find out you suck at NL.

[Dave Mac]

that does make sense on some levels, however while I may currently suck at nl my goal is to get good. I am confedent I can and so I am purseing this goal first earn second. my thinking is that is I want to become a great, rather than good player, I have to do everything I can ti improve. and nl seemed like a good ave. for improvement. finally, right now I don't have that many expenses so I don't mind a reduced earn, while I am getting better.
dave