"Standard" bluff ?

[Raven]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($600)
SB ($168.15)
BB ($1325.65)
UTG ($2856.16)
MP ($680.50)
Hero ($647.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $17, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($66) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($66) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $150</font>.

The raiser before the flop is a little bit loose and aggressif (32/12), the other one is an unknown.

Am I right to think its a good spot to bluff ?

[MTBlue]

Nope, you wouldn't check a set on the board or even a pair. So you are representing three twos. Not particularly believable unless the villain is ultra weak tight.

[HoldEmKillah]

I like it. The only cation (and it's not much) is that he may think you are on a resteal and repop you. His thinking would probably go like this: "The flop was checked to you on the button and you don't bet..why raise me on this rag turn then? You are probably putting me on 99-KK and you're trying to represent an ace. You are full of [censored]." A good player who goes through this process will either call you down or repop you but the repopping thing takes some stones.

Either way I think it's a good play but I prefer to do it when you are NOT last to act on the flop since it gives more credibility to you having what you are representing (set or ace).

btw, what do you do on the river if called (aside from planning on hitting a 5)?

[lapoker17]

If you want the pot, just bet the flop - looks like no one else wants it. No need to go to all this trouble.

[HoldEmKillah]

[ QUOTE ]
Nope, you wouldn't check a set on the board or even a pair. So you are representing three twos. Not particularly believable unless the villain is ultra weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what kind of hands do you continue with after Raven raises the turn? It's not THAT unlikely Raven doesn't have a set. Sure, most players wouldn't check a set there but this is PP where the DARNDEST things happen! It is also possible that he called with something like A 10 and was just checking behind to disguise his hand...whatever. The point is how likely are you to continue with this hand after Raven raises when you may be chasing 2 outs with 1 card to go?

[HoldEmKillah]

[ QUOTE ]
If you want the pot, just bet the flop - looks like no one else wants it.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. Good point.

[Raven]

I was going to give it up on the river if called. And I understand the tought process of a good player you explained, but who does have the guts to really make this play with nothing ?

[Raven]

Could be good too, but there is still the short stack waiting for the raiser to bet, as most player would do with a good hand and a short stack like that. On the turn, both have solidly stated "no ace !".

[warlockjd]

So pretty much you are putting villain on KK and who cares what youre representing, he's folding with the A high board?

[pottie]

[ QUOTE ]
Nope, you wouldn't check a set on the board or even a pair. So you are representing three twos. Not particularly believable unless the villain is ultra weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested to hear from the high stakes players here how often they deviate from the standard play to add deception? Take a chance on the turn card, hope for a blank and increase EV by getting people to bluff or bet weaker hands?

How bad is checking AK here really? If checked through bet a blank turn and hope for a play like Hero did in this hand. If Hero bets the flop - is a check-raise that bad?

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
So pretty much you are putting villain on KK and who cares what youre representing, he's folding with the A high board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Or something weaker... I think it'll work often enough to be +EV. Betting this flop is a lot better though, and I'd assume I was protecting my hand rather than bluffing when he checks.

[Raven]

Someone who raise 12 % of his hands have a wide range of hands here IMO. And yes I dont represent a specific hand, I look like Im slowplaying, and they dont know me enough to know that I would not slowplay a lot on this flop. But, as I was saying, someone with say KJ or 99 would have to be very sure of his read and have a lot of guts to continue to play this hand. In the hand they both folded pretty quickly.

[HoldEmKillah]

How'd it work out btw?

As a comparison this is a similar one from yesterday:

Me: 7h 7d on button

4 to the flop of: Jh 9d 6d

checked around

Turn: J /images/graemlins/club.gif

check, check, UTG bets $15, I call (you could argue a raise here if I don't believe him, which I don't, but I wanted to see if one of the blinds were getting cute).

River: 10c

he bets $20, I raise to $100, he folds.

[edge]

I pretty much bet whenever it's checked to me in last position on the flop, especially in an unraised pot. I realize this opens me up to checkraises, but maybe I've been lucky so far.

[Raven]

They both folded pretty quickly after my raise.

[Raven]

[ QUOTE ]
I pretty much bet whenever it's checked to me in last position on the flop, especially in an unraised pot. I realize this opens me up to checkraises, but maybe I've been lucky so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do it a lot also, but I often prefer to bet from the second to last position as It give more credit to my bet and I dont let the last position player the opportunity to steal /images/graemlins/wink.gif. I fire a lot of second barrels in the unraised pots also.

[MTBlue]

Killah, it's the fact that this board is so rediculously draw heavy that it would be suicidal to check a set on it. The type of people who check sets on these type of boards are the same type of people that min raise the bettor on the turn. I call this type of bet a large percentage of the time with top pair + and it's fairly profitable. On this board I think I would put the opponent on an underpair that decided to blow me off the hand. I know people fold to this type of bluff often, but I really don't think the line is coherent if the villain isn't a donk. Of course it depends on Raven's image too if he is a tricky lag I am more inclined to give him credit for something. If he is abc, then the raise doesn't make sense.