value bet river?

[willie24]

5/10 online. SB is an average player. maybe a tiny bit loose and average in terms of aggression.

folded to hero who raises on button with a /images/graemlins/spade.gif k /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

SB calls, BB folds.

flop: 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

he checks, i bet, he calls.

turn: 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

check check

river: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

he checks

[cold_cash]

I doubt he's folding a better hand, so I guess the question you have to ask is how often is he calling with a worse one?

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt he's folding a better hand, so I guess the question you have to ask is how often is he calling with a worse one?

[/ QUOTE ]

that is exactly what i'm asking you

[Argus]

Bet the turn. You are much more likely to get called by a worse hand there than on the river. Other ace highs may call the river bet, but most of the time I think you are called on the river it's by a pair, especially if villain checks the river after you checked the turn behind. So check this river.

[fizzleboink]

Check. I don't think he'll call you with any hands that you beat.

The flop was pretty draw heavy and if he hit a draw he would have let you know (and maybe still will if you bet). He won't call a bet if he missed.

If he has a pair he'll call the river becuse you checked the turn and the river obviously didn't help you.

[nut case ace]

You can't bet this because he's calling with any piece of that board. If he had a big ace too i think he would have 3-bet before the flop and that's the only hand that you can beat that might call. Also, even if you do have him beat, a bet gives him the chance to check-raise you with the worst hand forcing you to fold. There are just way too many ways he calls with the best hand and not enough that he calls with the worst hand to make a value bet correct here.

[fizzleboink]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn. You are much more likely to get called by a worse hand there than on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he'll call you with any hands that you beat

[/ QUOTE ]

certainly, many players will call with a high ace here, which appears to be the most likely hand- since just about any low PP is a set or straight.

[ QUOTE ]
The flop was pretty draw heavy and if he hit a draw he would have let you know (and maybe still will if you bet). He won't call a bet if he missed

[/ QUOTE ]

the chances that the SB is drawing to anything besides overcards on this flop are fairly low. he called a raise from the small blind.

[ QUOTE ]
If he has a pair he'll call the river becuse you checked the turn and the river obviously didn't help you.

[/ QUOTE ]

without question

[Yads]

This is not a value bet on the river, it is a value bet on the turn however. Check behind he's not calling with his missed overs.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn. You are much more likely to get called by a worse hand there than on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a good point.

against aggressive players, i see a lot of check-raises on this turn with both small pairs and ace high. a LAG will always bluff the river if i check through on the turn, although a strong aggressive player may or may not. (hes more likely to bluff with KQ than bet AQ). but this opponent was not aggressive and betting the turn would have been better.

what play do you like against a LAG and what play do you like against a TAG, both of whom are aware of the steal situation we are in? in particular- do you always bet regardless of opponent, if you do- do you always fold to a check-raise?

[SoSo]

Hes got a busted draw betting has no value.

[censored] that theres a 4 card str8 on the board hes either made or folding, y bet?

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
he's calling with any piece of that board.

[/ QUOTE ]
we all agree with this

[ QUOTE ]
If he had a big ace too i think he would have 3-bet before the flop

[/ QUOTE ]
then what hand would he just call with?

on the river i have to assume i am ahead at least 3/4 of the time. will he call with A or K high as much as he will call with some pair? you think no, but i am not sure. i dont see how he could fold A high here given how he played the hand.

[W. Deranged]

There is no reason to check this turn. You have no reason to believe that your opponent has any pair and so you should figure your hand is good until proven otherwise.

Check down the river. Unless your opponent has consistenly shown the tendency to call down with weak holdings, and so you figure he'll call with Ax often, check it down.

[jat850]

Bet the turn - make him play your "pocket pair." You have position - use it. IMO turn check was weak tight. If you are called on the turn consider even betting the river because you are HU. People believe that players bluff less on the river, and that belief makes it effective when you have position - sell KK not AK in your betting. This worked for me last game when my last win was with high pockets pairs that I raised and showed for win. Then, I came back with raising AKo in a hand just like this and better hands folded because I had position and a history of betting solid PP's in my favor. I didn't have to even show that I had no pairs. Was this a time to "cash in" on your "table image?" It was for me.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
raising AKo in a hand just like this and better hands folded

[/ QUOTE ]

are you certain that they were better hands? even if not, you successfully protected the best hand, which is good. but in limit players rarely fold decent hands in steal situations

[callmedonnie]

I usually take the lead on the turn and end it right there hopefully. I think your percentage of not being called down on turn are much greater than the river. The river looks like a my hand is not so good maybe I can buy the pot. That said, I also think that the river is probably a value bet most of the time anyway.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
That said, I also think that the river is probably a value bet most of the time anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

With Ace high?

You think when you bet and he calls you're ahead half the time? I would guess it's closer to 10% than 50%.

[willie24]

it is certainly much closer to 50% than 10%. you are probably right that it is less than 50 though

[Argus]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Bet the turn - make him play your "pocket pair." You have position - use it. IMO turn check was weak tight. If you are called on the turn consider even betting the river because you are HU. People believe that players bluff less on the river, and that belief makes it effective when you have position - sell KK not AK in your betting. This worked for me last game when my last win was with high pockets pairs that I raised and showed for win. Then, I came back with raising AKo in a hand just like this and better hands folded because I had position and a history of betting solid PP's in my favor. I didn't have to even show that I had no pairs. Was this a time to "cash in" on your "table image?" It was for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is misguided. You bet AK on the turn because it is usually the best hand and you will get called by worse ones, not because you are (semi) bluffing a high pair. You are unlikely to fold a better hand, but you are quite likely to get called by a worse one. Pretending AK is KK is a mistake new players make and changing your way of thinking (while realising AK itself has value) will improve your results.

[jat850]

One of the review ?'s you what to think about is "What to my opponents think I hold?" Don't you want to shape their thinking into better holdings? And the factors that make sense to consider that approach include: Position + table image + prior play. People often project a prior hand to current play. Having just played KK w/in one orbit was still in their minds when I decided to take advantage of that history and was raising the issue here to see if there was a situational advantage that was not discussed in this hand.

And, yes, I found out 2 hands later that I had the 2nd best hand when the guy I was HU w/ asked what I had - I told the truth and he said" "Damn, folded my PP 3's." Had I just checked - he wins - I had to river bet to win it using position - table image and prior play. Whether it turns out to be a value bet or semi-bluff is something you will only know in hindsight. I was trying to reference other factors that had not been discussed in this hand that might have supported a more aggressive approach.

If your table image was weaker, or you had been recently caught raising weaker holdings, then this approach would not work. Within the context of the hand under discussion, what was YOUR table image? What had you raised recently? Was it shown? If you had a strong,tight pre-flop image, particularly recently, play strong and bet the river. If your image that you bring to that hand was weaker, check.

These context issues in the hand under discussion remain undisclosed.