Call or fold this QQ?

[AbelM]

***** Hand History for Game 2634865494 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:15356122 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Thursday, September 01, 13:25:50 EDT 2005
Table Table 12342 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: ghimli ( $1380 )
Seat 2: redcow21 ( $340 )
Seat 3: crusader3 ( $865 )
Seat 5: kurz51 ( $2275 )
Seat 6: iki20 ( $830 )
Seat 7: xEl_Caballox ( $1050 )
Seat 8: philmo67 ( $480 )
Seat 9: HUGESODAS ( $850 )
Seat 10: Groningen1 ( $1930 )
Trny:15356122 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Groningen1 [ Qh Qc ]
iki20 folds.
xEl_Caballox folds.
philmo67 folds.
HUGESODAS folds.
Groningen1 raises [150].
ghimli folds.
redcow21 folds.
>You have options at Table 12782 Table!.
crusader3 folds.
>You have options at Table 14454 Table!.
kurz51 calls [100].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ks, Tc, Td ]
kurz51 bets [450].
>You have options at Table 12782 Table!.
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
>You have options at Table 12782 Table!.
Groningen1 will be using his time bank for this hand.

Easy fold. And a good example of how sometimes being first to act can be the better position.

He called your preflop raise. He put the pressure on you with a scary flop. He could be bluffing, but he could easily have a T or a K which would make you basically drawing dead to a Q. Plus he has your stack covered.

[multifast1]

I certainly don't play the $215's nor do I multi-table them! BUT, to me it looks like he's got AT and is hoping you had AK, KQ or will push with any pair.. I'm smelling trap. He could be using his position to pressure you but I don't see him risking about 1/4 his stack to win about t250...

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Scuba Chuck]

Any reads?

Where I play, a bet like this is trying to 'tell' me that he has a K. Maybe not a great K, but a K none the less.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
I certainly don't play the $215's nor do I multi-table them! BUT, to me it looks like he's got AT and is hoping you had AK, KQ or will push with any pair.. I'm smelling trap. He could be using his position to pressure you but I don't see him risking about 1/4 his stack to win about t250...

[/ QUOTE ]

Note the pot is 325 not 250.

I would fold but I think you are folding the best hand here very often. I would fold becuase of my stack size though.

[multifast1]

[ QUOTE ]
Note the pot is 325 not 250.

[/ QUOTE ]
You missed my point. My line of thinking was either:

A) He had you beat based on the flop - either a K ot T
B) He's bluffing and planned on this move even before calling the raise pre-flop.. meaning he was risking about 1/4 of his stack to win t225 (~250) in chips that we already out there.

Effectively though, you're right. It comes down to stack size as to why you lay it down.

[AbelM]

This was exactly what i thought, so the real question might be: will he fold his weak K if i go allin?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

Note the pot is 325 not 250.

I would fold but I think you are folding the best hand here very often. I would fold becuase of my stack size though.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
This was exactly what i thought, so the real question might be: will he fold his weak K if i go allin?

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't this question be answered with math? If I had to make a guess at the answer, the results will be one where your expected stack will be close to or slightly less than your current stack.

I don't know how crafty players can be at your level, but I could only imagine hands like K9o+ calling, or maybe K5s+ calling. Anyway, if we give him any credit, then that narrows it down to just K9+.

Your current stack is very pretty.

[ripped]

My original thought was fold but after thinking about this alittle Im wondering why is he firing away unless it's a weak K which I doubt because he called the raise.

If he has a T he is surely going to check raise you or maybe even slowplay them till the end.

If he has AK or KQ he should also checkraise you.

My thoughts are he has a lower PP (jacks or 9's) and he thinks you missed or is just trying to make a move here.

Last thing is he might have JQ for the open ended draw. This is a seriously tough hand to play though after you think of it.

[multifast1]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has a T he is surely going to check raise you or maybe even slowplay them till the end.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with the rest of your logic except for this statement but only because the flop was TTK. If it was say TT2 and I have a T then I slowplay or checkraise the pre-flop raiser. Since the K hit the board, I am firing a decent amount to induce a push since there's a good chance you've got AK or KQ due to the pre-flop raise.

Bottom line... you're VERY likely behind at this point. Will an over-the-top push make him fold? Maybe, but is it worth the risk considering your relative chip stack? I don't think so...

[jon462]

i voted all in because i thought villain was pushing his whole stack in on flop (the 450).. once I reread realized its easy fold.

[AbelM]

I pushed, he folded.

Some brought up that they would fold because of their stacksize, I strongly disagree with this. I actually suspected that my oponnent had this same sort of reasoning, which i can exploit as his weakness. We were the two big stacks, to me his slight overbet on the flop was him saying "let's end this right here, i don't wanna play this for all my chips". It might've ment he had a weak K, but nevertheless i was quite sure he would fold to my allin. The fact that i have QQ doesn't matter at all.

Now i just hope that all my fellow 2+2'ers on the 215's aren't gonna abuse this and overbet-trap me /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[multifast1]

Abel, Maybe you were right on this one but I still have to disagree with the push and say it wasn't worth it. Sounds like you had a slight read on this guy that lead you to the decision though.. As a co-chip leader I don't fire out 1/4 of my stack against the other leader this early in the tourney in this situation unless I'm willing to go all-in. Maybe I've just been burned a few too many times recently by other big stacks setting me up like this when I pushed in similar situations.. seems like an unnecesarry risk to me now.