Questionable flop call (?) [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Tropex

09-01-2005, 10:42 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Button (t13255)
SB (t31745)
BB (t13190)
Hero (t9215)
MP (t10580)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises to t1200, 3 folds, BB calls t800.

Flop: (t2100) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t1200, BB raises to t11965, Hero calls t6790 (All-In).

Turn: (t22055) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t22055) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t22055

The all-in guy was maybe a bit laggy and very unpredictable. I had odds to draw to the flush alone but is it really smart or could I have folded this on the flop ?

Brad F.

09-01-2005, 10:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Button (t13255)
SB (t31745)
BB (t13190)
Hero (t9215)
MP (t10580)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises to t1200, 3 folds, BB calls t800.

Flop: (t2100) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t1200, BB raises to t11965, Hero calls t6790 (All-In).

Turn: (t22055) K/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t22055) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t22055

The all-in guy was maybe a bit laggy and very unpredictable. I had odds to draw to the flush alone but is it really smart or could I have folded this on the flop ?

[/ QUOTE ]

As for your flop call, you have to call 6790 to win 10270, so about 1.5:1 or so (I think that's right). Unless you feel as if you are up against the straight or a set, you have to call here with what I think is 11 outs.

I think the call is fine. If you don't lead and he pushes, you should probably be folding. But I lead here every time too.

Brad

DemonDeac

09-01-2005, 10:56 AM

its a fine call with the amount of outs you have (flush and overs) with being able to see turn and river without any more betting.

Lloyd

09-01-2005, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I had odds to draw to the flush alone

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you don't. You are about 2 to 1 to make your flush and only getting 1.5 to 1 odds. If your A is good then you're getting exactly the right odds but you shouldn't be calling off all your stack unless it's +EV, which means you're getting better odds then your chance of making the hand. Both your A and J have to be good to make this call. Given your description as a bit laggy you can probably assume that both cards are live so I'd call.

Brad F.

09-01-2005, 11:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If your A is good then you're getting exactly the right odds but you shouldn't be calling off all your stack unless it's +EV, which means you're getting better odds then your chance of making the hand. Both your A and J have to be good to make this call. Given your description as a bit laggy you can probably assume that both cards are live so I'd call.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are around 46% to win versus KK, QQ, JJ with no spade in them. We are 43% against the same hands with a spade in them. We are ahead of 1010 and 99, and 47% against 88 with a spade.

So the only hands that make this hand a fold is 55-77, 3-4, 4-8, 8-9 and AA. Pretty hard to narrow the villian's range to just these hands.

I still think it is +EV to call here.

Brad

Tropex

09-01-2005, 12:00 PM

Ukay, good it wasn't a horrible mistake at least, I was against 84 of diamonds /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Brad F.

09-01-2005, 12:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ukay, good it wasn't a horrible mistake at least, I was against 84 of diamonds /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, you were still just 36% to win versus this hand, so it was almost correct even with those holding. Throw in the other possible hands and it's a good call. Sorry it didn't work out.

Brad