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-Skeme-

09-01-2005, 08:21 AM

Really old hand. No reads.

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)

CO ($32.40)
Button ($107.55)
SB ($368.50)
BB ($44.40)
UTG ($35)
UTG+1 ($36.90)
MP1 ($38)
MP2 ($157.80)
Hero ($100.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, SB completes, BB raises to $4, MP1 calls $3, Hero calls $3, SB folds.

Flop: ($13) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($13) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB bets $6, MP1 calls $6, Hero ??
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Anybody raise the turn? Call?

ArturiusX

09-01-2005, 08:44 AM

I call and see what the river brings. We may be able to exploit our positon or bail if the scene is bad.

09-01-2005, 08:54 AM

You actually have odds up to a pot sized raise...which is $25 at this point.

Why not make it $17 and take down a healthy $25 pot (most of which is OPM). I think your folding equity is pretty high for a raise that big. You can also show if you want to rub it in.

If you get called, you have the bonus of getting the rest of Villain's stack when you hit.

DoomSlice

09-01-2005, 09:34 AM

If BB didn't check the flop, then I'd probably raise this. But it looks like there is just too big of a chance that he is sandbagging something big.

Take those odds.

jkkkk

09-01-2005, 09:36 AM

I like to call and play a good river with position.

Finite_Risk

09-01-2005, 09:56 AM

Agree on the call - my biggest concern isnt raiser, it's MP1 - is he drawing too? Flush draw with 2 overs would have close to proper odds to call regardless of what hero did. I wouldn't want to commit my stack on a river heart. Take the favorable odds given

ryanghall

09-01-2005, 09:57 AM

I wouldn't raise the turn. Call and try to hit your draw(s).

If you miss, you may have a chance to try and steal if the river is checked to you anyways.

I'd also fold preflop (twice) unless the BB was real tight. Especially with these dismal stack sizes.

Ryan

djoyce003

09-01-2005, 10:51 AM

just call...you are getting immediate odds on the call...you don't want to raise and open yourself up to a push which would just suck.

-Skeme-

09-01-2005, 05:11 PM

Damn, I really thought a lot more of you would advocate a raise in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
You actually have odds up to a pot sized raise...which is $25 at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain the math behind this please? Thanks.

emil3000

09-01-2005, 05:38 PM

I think you can take this pot on the river a lot of the time even if oyu miss. I don't mind a raise here that much, but most of the time I'd probably just take the pot odds. These are short stacks, they do funny stuff with big hands some time.

So i'd call adn bet any river if checked to, possibly raise a weak bet although more risky.

-Skeme-

09-02-2005, 12:56 AM

-----
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)

CO ($32.40)
Button ($107.55)
SB ($368.50)
BB ($44.40)
UTG ($35)
UTG+1 ($36.90)
MP1 ($38)
MP2 ($157.80)
Hero ($100.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, SB completes, BB raises to $4, MP1 calls $3, Hero calls $3, SB folds.

Flop: ($13) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($13) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB bets $6, MP1 calls $6, Hero calls $6.

River: ($31) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $25, BB folds, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: $56

Results in white below: 
Hero has 9h 8h (flush, queen high).
Outcome: Hero wins $56. 
-----

I like a $15 river bet a lot better. Better chance of it being paid off, and if it's called by both players, I gain $30 instead of the $25 I had hoped 1 player would call.

tdomeski

09-02-2005, 01:27 AM

All in. .

Was I the SB?

-Skeme-

09-02-2005, 01:31 AM

Nope.

tdomeski

09-02-2005, 01:39 AM

all in is best here b/c of 4 things 1) one of them has to have a better hand than you 2) one of them has to call you 3) one of them has to avoid getting sucked out on 4) all ins make people take notes

tdomeski

09-02-2005, 01:43 AM

I think you would be surprised how much more often an all in (and I mean make your chips stack up like the twin towers) gets called here than one green chip. . .

Also MP1 overcall on a $15 bet is incredibly unlikely.

-Skeme-

09-02-2005, 02:40 AM

What streets are you talking about, tdo? You want me all in on the turn for the squeeze, and then all in once I hit? I think someone calling an all in on the river, or even the $25, is highly unlikely.

tdomeski

09-02-2005, 03:16 AM

all in on turn looks diff than all in on river

i like all in on turn. .

given that you didn't push turn, you should all in the river. . .(note that your opponents don't have much more than that $25 bet anyways)

sorry for confusion initial response was to original post when you asked turn action. .given turn action on your second post you ask for river action advice. .advice there is all in too. .maybe i just like to push

pokerjoker

09-02-2005, 03:49 AM

Pot it. BB probably has a 7x, mp either has a flush draw or a not set low pp.
They look weak to me, at the very worst I seriously doubt one of them is slowplaying and you should get to see the river without a reraise.

-Skeme-

09-02-2005, 04:04 AM

What do you expect to call an all in on that board and that action?

thatpfunk

09-02-2005, 04:42 AM

i bet the flop an absurd amount of the time, but im an aggro monkey.

-Skeme-

09-02-2005, 05:00 AM

Yeah, if this hand happened recently I woulda bet, but it's old.. was less aggressive.

Komodo

09-02-2005, 06:57 AM

No, not sure why you want to raise it. We can expect him to have at least TP here, which you are a bit behind.
Only argument I can see is for deception and better implied odds.

thatpfunk

09-02-2005, 07:02 AM

depends on the raise but theres always fold equity and building the pot.

Komodo

09-02-2005, 07:03 AM

<blockquote>Svar till:<hr />
-----
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)

CO ($32.40)
Button ($107.55)
SB ($368.50)
BB ($44.40)
UTG ($35)
UTG+1 ($36.90)
MP1 ($38)
MP2 ($157.80)
Hero ($100.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, SB completes, BB raises to $4, MP1 calls $3, Hero calls $3, SB folds.

Flop: ($13) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($13) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
BB bets $6, MP1 calls $6, Hero calls $6.

River: ($31) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $25, BB folds, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: $56

Results in white below: 
Hero has 9h 8h (flush, queen high).
Outcome: Hero wins $56. 
-----

I like a $15 river bet a lot better. Better chance of it being paid off, and if it's called by both players, I gain $30 instead of the $25 I had hoped 1 player would call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. River bet is way to big, especially since it is clear that one or two players are drawing.

-Skeme-

09-02-2005, 01:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No, not sure why you want to raise it. We can expect him to have at least TP here, which you are a bit behind.
Only argument I can see is for deception and better implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

And what T are we putting either of them on? The reason I'd raise is here is that I have lots of fold equity and even if I'm called I have a shitload of outs.

subzero

09-02-2005, 01:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...I'd also fold preflop (twice) ... Especially with these dismal stack sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm late on this one, but this is the answer I was looking for.

Voltron87

09-02-2005, 01:55 PM

i just call for value here. if stacks were deeper i would raise.

tdomeski

09-02-2005, 02:38 PM

From the typical Stars .50/1 NL player with roughly 40 BB's I expect to see a river call of an all in with a WIDE RANGE of hands. Don't assume your opponents don't think but by all means they most likely have no clue what it is they are thinking about. . . .All in.

gulebjorn

09-02-2005, 03:05 PM

I'm making it 10$ on the flop and potting the turn.

Flop: you only have a flush draw here, and a backdoor straight. Nobody has shown strength, so taking it down would be a good result here.

Turn: Now you can just pot it with odds. If they call, fine. If they fold, even better.

River: You shouldn't have too much left in your stack if you take my line. So I'd probably shove it all in whatever the river is. Maybe I can push someone off a busted draw with a weak-ass all-in bet.

TheWorstPlayer

09-02-2005, 03:18 PM

I'm betting the flop almost 100% of the time here. No point in raising the turn, though, I don't think. No one folds anything here and you'll just PC yourself.

ajmargarine

09-02-2005, 04:34 PM

Preflop, first limp...meh. I think you should fold to the raise though given those stack sizes.

Postflop. Bet that flop almost 100% of the time, barring an uber-read.

-it takes the pot right there quite a bit.
-if called, it gets checked to the raiser quite a bit, and you can check behind.
-when you hit your hand, it's well disguised so you get paid quite a bit.

As played, just call the turn action.

09-02-2005, 04:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Damn, I really thought a lot more of you would advocate a raise in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]

You actually have odds up to a pot sized raise...which is $25 at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain the math behind this please? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure.

Equity
From pokerstove:
Against a set, you have 30% equity.
Against an overpair(AA,KK) or AT, you have 34% equity.
Higher flush draw of your suit (AK/Qs): 27%
Lower flush draw of your suit: (65s, 53s): 65%
Higher flush draw of other suit:(AK/Qs):38.5%

I think most of the time a flush draw folds here anyway, which is part of what's good about this play.

So equity is 33% or 1/3.

Outcomes
If you raise the turn, one of three things is happening

1. Someone is calling
2. Someone is pushing (given effective stack sizes)
3. Both are folding.

1. A caller

Your odds are 1/3. Assume you raise X here. Also assume you don't make a cent more if you hit. The pot is currently $25, caller needs to call X-6.

EV = (amount you win if you hit)(prob of hit) - (amount you lose if you miss)(prob of miss)

For break even:

0 = ($25+X-6)(1/3) - (X)(2/3)
0 = (19/3 + X/3) - 2X/3
X = 19.

So you can raise up to $19 here, get called, and still have direct +EV odds for this raise. This assumes you don't make another cent if you hit.

2. Reraise/push. MP1 has 38, BB has 44. Assume you make a $17 raise. The min raise is then to 28, villain has already put $10 in, so a raise here is a push. You obviously have excellent odds to call.

EV lost from every push/call situation (assume $40 ave stack between villains)

EV - (amount you win)(prob) - (amount you lose)(prob)
EV = ($25 + $30)(1/3) - ($36)(2/3)
EV = 18.33- 24
EV ~ -$6

So if he pushes every time you lose $6 each time

3. Both fold

You pick up a $25 pot in which you had < 30% equity with two villains in.

EV ~= +$17

I'll let you work out how often you need a fold vs a push for profitability here (if it's not clear), and you'll see why it's a good idea to raise big here.

Note that

1. I have not included the extra money you make if you hit after a call
2. EV being equal, it's better to play bigger pots.
3. It's better for image to be aggressive

I have made a few simplifications, but frankly I couldn't be assed typing out the scenarios of when they call and hit a higher flush, etc, but it would come to the same result, because higher flush draws (except ATs) are likely to fold to your raise, whereas if you just call, you're going to lose a lot on the river anyway. Plus this is more than made up for by the times when you hit and get the rest of their stack...

09-02-2005, 04:58 PM

And for the people who suggest just calling (that's all of you), tell me how often you think you'll get a fold here, how often (and how much) you'll get paid off on the river if you hit, and how on earth you're ever going to have a good image if your default is to call when you're drawing and bet when you hit.

TheWorstPlayer

09-02-2005, 06:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And for the people who suggest just calling (that's all of you), tell me how often you think you'll get a fold here,

[/ QUOTE ]
Almost never.
[ QUOTE ]
how often (and how much) you'll get paid off on the river if you hit,

[/ QUOTE ]
Half pot 90% of the time.
[ QUOTE ]
and how on earth you're ever going to have a good image if your default is to call when you're drawing and bet when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're closing the action on the turn. Who cares if they know you are drawing? And they don't read hands anyways.