Since this seems to be the trend...

[ashes will fall]

...today, I thought I'd post a flopped set hand as well /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

I'm playing 4/8 at a local B&M at a pretty mixed table. I'm UTG+1 and see A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif . I open-raise, LP calls (tight-aggressive), button calls (loose aggressive), and BB calls (weak-passive). Four to the flop for 8.5 SB's.

Flop comes: A /forums/images/icons/club.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

BB checks, I bet out, LP calls, Button calls, BB calls. Four to the turn for 12.5 SB's.

Turn comes: T /forums/images/icons/spade.gif [A /forums/images/icons/club.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif ]

Checked to me, I bet out, LP raises, Button 3-bets, BB caps. Here I've got to figure that I'm in 4th place, but I've got 16:3 odds and probably 10 cleans outs (unless somebody else hit their set, but I'm putting them all on made flushes/straights). I call the 3-bet as does everybody else. Four to the river for 22 BB's.

River comes: 2 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif [T /forums/images/icons/spade.gif A /forums/images/icons/club.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif ]

BB checks, I check, LP bets out, Button raises, BB cold-calls, I fold.

Here's my questions:
1) I'm assuming I'm correct for calling on the turn since I had the odds to fill, but what if I were playing somewhere with a 5-bet cap?
2) Was I correct for folding on the river to two bets, or should I have called it down even with the first bettor to act behind?
3) Could this situation have been somewhat avoided if I had played it differently?

Thanks for any and all advice. Always trying to learn.

See you at the tables.

[Bob T.]

On the turn, you are in a very scary place. You actually have zero clean outs. You also have the ace of spades in your hand, so nobody can be raising with the nut flush, unless they have a straight flush. If I am going to call, I am going to include the four spades that don't make a 1 card straight flush possible, so you have 14 likely outs, but you might be already drawing dead. I hate to say this, but given thatyou have the Ace of spades, and there is this much action on a board with three spades on it, I am going to give a lot of consideration to folding here. If I had top set with Kings, and the king of spades, I would feel better about calling with fewer outs, because I could explain the action that happened due to a raise with the nut flush. If you decided to fold here, I wouldn't think that you made an unreasonable choice.

If it was a 5 bet cap, the difference between 16:3, and 19:4 to see the turn isn't significant.

I think that the fold on the river was proper. I would call if it was only a single bet.

[rharless]

If you really had the As, then you have 10 outs to fill plus 9 "theoretical" nut flush outs. (Obviously people have spades, so obviously there's not 9 possible spades left to catch. Maybe someone has a set, which reduces your fill outs to 7.)

Regardless, with three other people putting in money on the turn, and you with top set and best flush draw, I can't imagine ever laying that down.

I think it's a good laydown on the river. A bettor, a raiser, and a cold caller on a board like that is a pretty clear message.

Did the winner have a str8 flush?

[Lee Jones]

If somebody has a straight flush, and the board pairs, well, you're going down in flames [1].

But let's put it this way, you've got three people other than you putting in four bets, you know where the top set and ace of trump is. These people like to gamble. Sure, maybe one of them has the straight flush, but until he shows it to you, it's monsters under the bed. In fact, I like your draw (either to fill or a fourth spade) so well that I'd cap it if somebody else didn't (against three opponents).

I think the river laydown is tough but unless your opponents are complete and total lunatics, absolutely correct.

Regards, Lee

[1] I assume there's no bad-beat jackpot, because if there is, this is a complete no-brainer, and you're praying to fill up against a straight flush

[ashes will fall]

There actually was a bad-beat jackpot and you can be sure that was going through my mind on the turn. Which brings up a question...

How much of a factor should a jackpot be when considering your odds in a situation such as this? Should you factor it into your thinking at all? It seems like you should given the risk to reward ratio, but to what extent when calculating pot odds?

See you at the tables.

[CrackerZack]

Never fold. that's the factor. everywhere I've ever seen a bad beat jackpot its at least 100 BBs higher than the BB in 4-8. If the guy turned over the straight flush and showed it to me on the turn I'd call with no shot at the pot.

[ashes will fall]

I hadn't counted my 9 spades (incorrectly I think) for 2 reasons. First is because the Q, J, 7, or 6 would've made a straight flush possible if not likely given the action. Second, I'd have to assume that the K is already out there and most of the 4 lower spades as well.

Looking back I think the King and 4 small spades should be considered at least half outs, giving me 16:3 odds with 13 outs, none of which should be considered clean (as was pointed out).

[rkiray]

Anyplace I've ever heard of that has a bad beat, if the other guy turned over his cards before you called, the jackpot will be invalid. Most places say no one is actually suppose to talk about it during the hand ( I know the Lodge in Blackhawk has this rule), but I don't think it's strictly enforced, but everything else is. At the Lodge it generally takes at least an hour before they pay out the jackpot. They review the security tapes, carefully examine the deck, etc. to be sure everything is kosher.

[rharless]

[Lee Jones]

It's a (relatively) straightforward pot-odds calculation. First you have to give your opponent the straight flush. There are, what, 1300 unique two-card hold'em hands. But his play during the hand eliminates a ton of them (and your hand eliminates another ton).

So he may be as little as 10:1 dog to have the straight flush. You've got 10 outs to fill, from 44 unseen cards. So you fill about 22% of the time. One tenth of the time, he shows up with the immortal no-matter-what nuts. So 2% (22% x 10%) of the time, you collect the bad beat jackpot.
If your share of the jackpot contains about 50 times what it costs you to see the showdown, you have to do it. Of course, the jackpots are often many times that, so it's a no-brainer.

But I don't want to lose sight of the important fact, which is that even without a bad-beat jackpot, you are absolutely committed to seeing the river card, no matter how many bets (well, 4-5 bets easily) it costs. If you're drawing dead that sucks. But not only are you unlikely to be drawing dead, you may not be drawing at all.

Regards, Lee

[KDF]

"a straight flush possible if not likely given the action"

Interesting assumption. How often have you lost an A-high flush or top-boat to a str8 flush in your whole experience? I think this is one of those forbidden "Never" statements: "a str8 flush is never likely."

There is a decent chance in this hand -anyhow. More likely is a flush (or two) and straight (board hugger) and you are surely beat on the river. Drawing to the top-boat and nut flush on the turn is rarely a bad play. If you hit your draw but someone cracks you with a str8 flush- oh well, that won't happen again for years...next hand please! I could be wrong, but this is a rare situation and not worth thinking too deeply about...it won't happen very often.
This is one of those very uncomfortable hands and your fold on the river was smart. IMHO

[avandelay]

This is off-topic but I think its great that you are footnoteing your posts.

By any chance were you an attorney in your prior life? /forums/images/icons/smile.gif