What is the best flop for pocket aces?

[Saddlepoint]

Just curious. Seems like there ought to be a correct answer.

Note that Choices 3 and 4 are each representative of a range of flops (ace-high uncoordinated rainbow, and non-ace-high uncoordinated rainbow respectively), and the particular flops in the poll are my guesses as to the ideal flop for each range. Also, Choices 1 and 2 are supposed to represent all AAx or Axx flops, it just seems like a king would be the most likely card for opponents to have flopped trips to.

And to clarify: I'm not asking about the best flop for AA if you're all-in before the flop, or the best flop for AA in terms of likelihood of having the best hand at showdown. I'm asking, in either limit or no limit, what is the flop that on average is going to yield the highest EV for a player with two aces in the hole?

[CallMeIshmael]

Loveless is overrated

[bobbyi]

I've heard some people say 222.

[gh9801]

222

[Saddlepoint]

[censored] I forgot 222. I think you're right. Thank you everybody but Ishmael.

[Duffman]

It all depends on the type of table. With a bunch of maniacs I'd love to have AAK or AKK because I can almost expect raises and reraises that are bluffs. Or hopefully someone caught a king and went buck wild.

A normal table I'd want Ace rag rag.

[UATrewqaz]

222 is TOTALLY wrong....

Assume:

A /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif vs K /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

flop is 222

if he hits a K on the turn or river he has a better FH than you, with 2 full outs this will occur roughly 8% of the time by the river.

The correct answer is as follows, with a proof (you can manipulate the suits but I'm providing them as an example).

A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif

flop is A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Under this scenario there is only one hand that could beat you, any straight flush, thus the "best" hand your opponet could have is

7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

thus your opponent needs 2 of 4 EXACT cards, the turn must be the 4, 5, 9, or 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif

HIs odds of ccatching one of these cards is roughly 8% ont he turn.

Then after he catches his turn card he must catch ANOTHER card, assuming he caught 4 to the straight flush he has 2 outs, and assuming he caught the 4 or 10 he has a gut shot.

Assuming he caught a good turn 4% of the time he'll have a 2% chance and 4% of the time he'll have a 4% chance.

The sum of those is your opponents chance of outdrawing you after the flop

(.04) * (.02) + (.04) * (.04) = 0.0024

This is 1/500th of a percent, much much much better than 8% no?

[DyessMan89]

[ QUOTE ]
222 is TOTALLY wrong....

AA vs KK

flop is 222

if he hits a king on the turn or river he has a better FH than you, this is roughly 8% of the time.

The correct answer is (you can manipulate the suits but I'm providing them as an example).

A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif

flop is A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Under this scenario there is only one hand that could beat you, any straight flush, thus the "best" hand your opponet could have is

7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

thus your opponent needs 2 of 4 EXACT cards, the turn must be the 4, 5, 9, or 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif

HIs odds of ccatching one of these cards is roughly 8% ont he turn.

Then after he catches his turn card he must catch ANOTHER card, assuming he caught 4 to the straight flush he has 2 outs, and assuming he caught the 4 or 10 he has a gut shot.

Assuming he caught a good turn 4% of the time he'll have a 2% chance and 4% of the time he'll have a 4% chance.

The sum of those is your opponents chance of outdrawing you after the flop

(.04) * (.02) + (.04) * (.04) = 0.0024

This is 1/500th of a percent, much much much better than 8% no?

[/ QUOTE ]

You fail to include the action youll get with a flop like A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif. You wont get any.

I prefer a flop like A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Im a lock for the hand and will take my opponents entire stack if he has a king.

[UATrewqaz]

I assume by "best flop for pocket aces" he meant the one with the least chance of being drawn out on, not the best flop to make money on.

Quite often the best flops for making money are the ones you are highly in danger of getting drawn out on.

But I see he was asking best flop for making money now.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
Loveless is overrated

[/ QUOTE ]

[Saddlepoint]

I think that's right, but not really what I meant. The basic premise is that if the flop is AAx, and you have AA, what are you getting action from? How much money do you expect to make? On a 222 flop, any pocket pair is likely to pay you off, with increasing likelihood as you approach KK.

In terms of pure power, I suspect the answer is AA6.

[timprov]

I think AAA is the best. Not only do you have an unbeatable hand, but pocket pairs are going to think their full house is likely good.

[ucfryan]

222 because you'll get action from pretty much every hand at the table.

[pokergrader]

[ QUOTE ]
I think AAA is the best. Not only do you have an unbeatable hand, but pocket pairs are going to think their full house is likely good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I would want a deck change if this was the flop

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
I think AAA is the best. Not only do you have an unbeatable hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. 5 aces loses to 9s full of jokers in my home game.

[UATrewqaz]

Aren't jokers wild? wouldn't this be five 9's?

[Kevroc]

I like the question, i'm going to venture to say Axx (with xx being a pair).

Most will put you on a big ace, you'll get some play here I suppose.