10 10 on the bubble

***** Hand History for Game 2630357771 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:15332245 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Wednesday, August 31, 17:30:20 EDT 2005
Table Table 13990 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: AnyOther ( $765 )
Seat 9: djofdj ( $1495 )
Seat 10: BrainDamage6 ( $910 )
Seat 8: pic1414 ( $4830 )
Trny:15332245 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BrainDamage6 [ Th Ts ]
AnyOther folds.
pic1414 raises [200].

This is a push, right? I was expecting Pic to raise here as the chip leader on the button, but that small of a raise is scary.

[nyc999]

Were min-raises taking down pots before? Unless it is a truly scary min-raise, I definitely push.

This was one of the first times he tried to take the blinds like that, and the first time he minraised.

Red flags went up when he did it.

i don't think it matters...instapush

Alright, just making sure. Results: Villain min raised AQ, I pushed and he spiked a Q to beat me.

I was just wondering if it was obvious to anyone that villain had a hand. Not really upset about the outcome, just seeing if anyone saw something I didn't.

[nyc999]

Looking over the hand again, I noticed two things: First, it wasn't a min-raise with the blinds at 50 (it was a 4x raise), and more importantly, I would put the villain on a wide range of hands.

There are four players left - the villain and three players with similar stack sizes trying not to bust out. If I were the villain I would be punishing the blinds.

[kong98]

Blinds are 25/50 and he is raising to 200. This isn't a min-raise.

I don't think you can call 200, and I don't think pushing is a good option here. You're probably a coin-flip, possibly dominated, and your stack is healthy enough to wait for a better opportunity.

If you fold your BB and SB, you're still in good shape with 835 in chips. I think you can pass on this 50/50 spot and do your own open-pushing where the chances of getting called are much smaller.

Your right, it was 200 with the bb as 50, sorry. I had it in my head that the raise was small, and that just developed into me thinking it was a min raise.

Obviously 4x the bb isn't small by any means, but I find that before you get to the 50/100 level, a raise in that position of 4x the bb is usually looking for action. Hope that made sense.

[microbet]

The context matters. In this case you are on the bubble in level 3. I don't think people are waiting around for other people to bust out; and if they aren't maybe you should.

Big stack is probably very loose, if not down right maniacal, so you probably don't have much FE.

I don't think it is clearly a push or a fold and any specific reads or how many hands before the blinds go up could make the difference.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can pass on this 50/50 spot and do your own open-pushing where the chances of getting called are much smaller.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its hard to say I'm definitely in a 50/50 spot here, considering how the vast majority of people with this big of a chip lead are going to bet into the blinds with any 2.

[Uppercut]

Does anyone think this is a good spot for hero to pull a Stop-n-go?

[ QUOTE ]
any specific reads or how many hands before the blinds go up could make the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know we were towards the end of the level, so 1-3 more hands until the 50/100. Not many reads on the villain, he was in one massive pot that got him most of his chips, typical big stack since then.

[kong98]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you can pass on this 50/50 spot and do your own open-pushing where the chances of getting called are much smaller.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its hard to say I'm definitely in a 50/50 spot here, considering how the vast majority of people with this big of a chip lead are going to bet into the blinds with any 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's been aggressive and bullying then he may have any 2 and a push may be in order. However, many of the players at this level are weak and tight. (I play 10+1, but I don't think the 20+2 is that different) I'll see people with the big chip stack folding their BB to a small stack's all-in raise etc.

I find I often make the mistake of assuming that because that is how _I_ would play, that it is the way they are playing too. I'm now trying to respect bets more (unless they've given me reason not to). I think this is improving my results.