Counting outs questions

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Here are a couple of hands.
Sorry if the details are a little vague. I might do some more examples if I can think of any that are good.

Hand 1:

Let's keep the preflop a little fuzzy, but let's say that it went to 3 bets with you putting in the 3rd bet with A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif

The flop is Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

It's checked to you and you bet and you manage to get it HU.

The turn brings a 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and for whatever reason you decide to bet again and you're checkraised.

i) The checkraiser was a limper.
ii) The checkraiser was the original preflop raiser.

In both situations, how big does the pot have to be to justify calling?

Hand 2:

You open in the CO with K /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and the button 3 bets you. The blinds tag along.

The flop comes out as

8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif

Its checked to the button who bets. One of the blinds call and you call.

Turn: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Its checked again to the button and he bets. the other guy folds.

How many outs do you have here? How big does the size of the pot have to be to justify a call?

Hand 3:

You open A /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif in early position and some people call ahead of you.

Flop: T /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

You bet and one of the guys raises and it's HU and you call.

Turn: 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

You check and he bets.
How big does the pot have to be to justify calling here?

[fizzleboink]

I found these to be quite good examples. Great to think through.

1. i) The limper usually has 2-pair like QJ or a set like 55. I give us 4 outs to a straight with decent implied odds. I think the pot would have to be about 10 BB's. I don't give our overcard's much credit at all.

ii) This is tougher but I think we can value our overcard's to 3 outs because villain could be raising something like AQ (although I wouldn't play it that way). I don't think villain would wait until the turn to raise something like KQ. There is also the possibility of him holding JJ with you drawing to the 4 T's again. However through bayesian analysis, AQ is far more likely. I'm going to say that implied odds and reverse implied odds cancel eachother out somewhat, because we could hit a K on the river and still lose to JJ. Although I still think we have some additional value due to implied odds for the 4 T's. I think the pot would have to be 5 BB's.

I don't weigh the possibility of a flush draw semi-bluff at all, although I guess it is possible.

2. I think button's range could be quite wide here if he suspects you're on a steal. Obviously you have 4 outs to a straight but you chop it with any K and lose to AK. So let's value that to 3 outs instead. I think your 2 outs to the other 9's are clean, but the K's might not. This is where things get a little hazy for me. Could the button re-raise with KQ or KJ if he suspected a steal? I'm going to give this hand a total of 7-8 outs with very little additional value from implied odds. So I guess a pot size of about 5 BB's.

3. Again another 4 outs for the gutshot which is quite clean. I give you 1.5 outs for the ace due to possible reverse domination. 5.5 outs total, pot size needs to be 7 BB's if you give yourself some additional implied odds value for the gutshot.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

a little bump?

[Justin A]

I think you're overestimating our outs in hand two with K9.

[W. Deranged]

The numbers I give are the size of the pot including all bets that have already gone in on the street in question.

1. i) 10 BB total.
ii) 9.5 BB total.

In either case, I think that the overcard outs are extremely tenuous. If you are planning to call when hitting an A or K, there are some reverse implied odds involved here. Implied odds are somewhat reduced by this. The primary difference between the two is that a limper can have a few more hands that we really don't want to see here (55, 22, QJ), and the preflop raiser might have something we do want to see, relatively speaking (like KK or AQ). But since the limper isn't likely to have QQ or JJ, it's pretty much a push. It's splitting hairs because I think the vast majority of the time in both situation we need to hit a T and only a T to win here.

2. 7 BB.

I think we have about 6 outs here on average. That's a pretty vague number, but here's how I add it up. We potentially have the 2 9s, 4 10s, and 3 K's as outs, which would be 9 total. None are really that pure, though. I think the K's are the dirtiest; maybe only 1.5 outs total. I'd discount the 10s and the 9's a bit and I think we get to about 6. I think the pot needs to be a little bigger than usual (6 outs would usually dictate a pot of about 6.5 BB) because we're working with some serious reverse implied odds here, in that a lot of times we'll hit and lose, and we can't calculate much in the way of implied odds because many of our obvious outs make the board very scary.

3. 6+ BB.

We have 4 outs to broadway which are squeaky clean. The 3 A's are probably outs as well, but I'd discount them a little; maybe 2 outs total. I think we can count a bit in the way of implied odds here since the K is a card that could make 2 pair for villain and I imagine we'll make a bet there often if not two. There's less threat of hitting an losing here than in the other cases.

[hobbsmann]

Hand 1
Your 4 outs gutshot outs are clean in both situations (including the Ts) and I think on average you are going to have a few more pair outs against the preflop raiser as his likely holdings are KQ/AQ AA-JJ which you have anywhere from 0-3 pair outs. Against a limper his range is going to be larger and is going to include probable two pair hands such as QJ. I'd say you probably need between 8 and 9 big bets in the pot to call the raise against the origianl pfr and 9 to 10 against the limper.

Hand 2
Your ten outs need to be discounted the times your gutshot comes in and you end up chopping/losing to the button. The two remaining 9s figure to outs against buttons 3-betting range here, but of course need to be discounted for the times button has a set or a T already. Also, you figure to be ahead here some portion of the time as well.

Wow, this situation is really marginal the more I think out about it and I want to say you probably have sometime like 4 outs and getting 8.5 to 1 isn't enough to warrant a call. Of course, if we could narrow the buttons preflop raising standards when you open from the CO we could swing this to a call based on the number of times you think you are up against AK. Anyway, not to sure about this one.

Hand 3
Your ace outs need to be discounted slightly, but I'd say you have about 5.5 outs on average and need ~8 bb in the pot to make this call.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1
Your 4 outs gutshot outs are clean in both situations (including the Ts) and I think on average you are going to have a few more pair outs against the preflop raiser as his likely holdings are KQ/AQ AA-JJ which you have anywhere from 0-3 pair outs. Against a limper his range is going to be larger and is going to include probable two pair hands such as QJ. I'd say you probably need between 8 and 9 big bets in the pot to call the raise against the origianl pfr and 9 to 10 against the limper.

Hand 2
Your ten outs need to be discounted the times your gutshot comes in and you end up chopping/losing to the button. The two remaining 9s figure to outs against buttons 3-betting range here, but of course need to be discounted for the times button has a set or a T already. Also, you figure to be ahead here some portion of the time as well.

Wow, this situation is really marginal the more I think out about it and I want to say you probably have sometime like 4 outs and getting 8.5 to 1 isn't enough to warrant a call. Of course, if we could narrow the buttons preflop raising standards when you open from the CO we could swing this to a call based on the number of times you think you are up against AK. Anyway, not to sure about this one.

Hand 3
Your ace outs need to be discounted slightly, but I'd say you have about 5.5 outs on average and need ~8 bb in the pot to make this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're underestimating our outs in hand two and overdiscounting our A outs in hand 3. To say we have only 5.5 outs in hand 3 is to say that our A's are dirty 50% of the time or more in that scenario, which I don't think is really the case.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're underestimating our outs in hand two and overdiscounting our A outs in hand 3. To say we have only 5.5 outs in hand 3 is to say that our A's are dirty 50% of the time or more in that scenario, which I don't think is really the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you hit an A do you bet/call, c/r, or c/c the river. This might be weak thinking on my part, but I'm not confident in my A outs enough to do anything but c/c an Ace river (would swing to a bet/call with a read though).

[W. Deranged]

Bet-folding most of the time.

You won't get raised by worse hands like ever. The A is a terrifying card to most players. If villain has KJ or AQ or something like that you'll get raised and can dump it. The flop raise, though, often just indicates some kind of mediocre hand like QJ. You'll get called by a Q here most of the time by weak players.

I think check-raising is getting in to deep (I doubt that second bet is profitable for us in the long run). Check-calling misses a lot of value from hands like KQ and QJ. Check-folding is too weak. Bet-calling is probably bad because I don't see us getting raised by weaker hands.

[hobbsmann]

Ok I think you're right here that a bet/fold is best. I need to stop being sporadically weak.

As for underestimating outs in hand 2, I'm finding it difficult in this situation because our outs are so dynamic and could range from 1.5 - 9. Without a better read on his 3-betting standards it's really hard to narrow it down, and like you said with this situation having such heavy reverse implied odds I tend to be more conserative in estimating outs, but maybe 4 or 4.5 is too low.

[gaming_mouse]

I just want to note that all of these interesting.

Thanks for the post, Chris.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok I think you're right here that a bet/fold is best. I need to stop being sporadically weak.

As for underestimating outs in hand 2, I'm finding it difficult in this situation because our outs are so dynamic and could range from 1.5 - 9. Without a better read on his 3-betting standards it's really hard to narrow it down, and like you said with this situation having such heavy reverse implied odds I tend to be more conserative in estimating outs, but maybe 4 or 4.5 is too low.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hobbs, you're right that hand #2 is damn hard. Maybe the number is something like 5.

[fizzleboink]

[ QUOTE ]

Hobbs, you're right that hand #2 is damn hard. Maybe the number is something like 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya I think the number I gave was way too high. I think 5 is a better number. I forgot to discount the chopping outs.

[Mister Z]

Taking a shot in the dark...

Hand 1 - I'm giving myself around 5.5 outs. One each for the overcards and 3-4 for the gutshot since another spade puts a 3-flush on the board. Going with at least 9BB here.

Hand 2 - This is more tricky b/c villains hand is less defined. We might even be ahead now. I'll give the full 2 outs for the 9's, 2 for the K's b/c of the straight and set possibilities, and 3.5 for the T's for the times when villain has AK. So with 7.5 outs I guess the pot has to be around 6BB to make a call?

Hand 3: I'll give this 5 outs (3.5 for the gutshot and 1.5 for the overcard) and say the pot should be at least 10BB.

I have a feeling I may be undervaluing some of these hands...

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 3: I'll give this 5 outs (3.5 for the gutshot and 1.5 for the overcard) and say the pot should be at least 10BB.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is inconsistent.

[Mister Z]

This is true. I rounded up a bit without adjusting my outs b/c I felt like villain likely had a made hand here that could discount our outs further. Lazy.

(Side note before i start: still fairly fishy so go easy im here to learn :P )

Hand 1:

Your OCs simply arent good here, only a total donk is checkraising a draw. I say you would QJ at least 60% of the time here, occasionally coming up against a set or even another 2P depending on the player.

Nevertherless there is no reason to think your tens are tainted, and you will almost certainly get 2 bets in on the river. Surely 9BB is enough?

Hand 2:

I really disagree with the majority here. Your outs are tainted all over the place, he could have the straight already, have another K for the chop, have a set killing your 9 and K outs. The only hands you have decent outs at all against are AA and AQ. You really have no idea where you stand on the river regardless of what falls.

His 3betting button hands include (with no read):
AA, AQ, JJ, QQ, KK, TT, 99 and AK

I say no more than 3 outs total, and your needing at least a 12BB pot.

Hand 3:

Again fairly confusing. Your ace could be reverse dominated, your J outs could still be good. No real implied odds for the 'overcards' (to the 10) as you cant possibly raise the river with top pair here. I think you can only give yourself 2.5 outs for these combined.

Meanwhile you have at least 3 K outs, closer to 3.5 effectively, discounting for the KQ/K10/AK possibilities.

So 6 outs all together, a pot of 9.5BB is needed.