Pot Odds and How to Value Bet

[JFB37]

I think this hand illustrates two things pretty well. First, how people screw up their betting and don't lay the correct odds and, second, a value betting situation. I would be interested if people agree and invite comments on how to bet on the river.

Party 200 NL. It's my second orbit, so no specific read on Villain. Both Hero and Villain have about $200.

Preflop: MP1 raises to 6; Villain calls in MP2; all fold to Hero in BB who calls with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.

Flop: ($20) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif

MP1 (preflop raiser) checks; Villain bets $5; Hero check-raises to $20; Villain re-raises to $35; Hero calls.

Let me explain my flop play. I decided that the PF Raiser had wiffed and was giving up. There was a chance that he was hoping to c/r with, say, AA, but I thought that possibility was small, perhaps 25%. I thought that Villain's $5 bet into a $20 pot meant one of two things. Either it was a weak bet on a flush draw or an absolute monster. My c/r was a way to find out. (I realize now it should have been larger -- a flush draw still had odds to call, but so be it). I wasn't impressed by Villain's min re-raise to $35. If he really did have a big hand, he should have jammed it. As it was, I was getting 75:15 (i.e., 5:1) so I called.

Turn: ($90) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero checks. Villain checks.

I probably should have bet. After Villain checked I was confident he did not have a big hand and, most likely, was on a flush draw.

River: ($90) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif

I thought the River 8 was a blank and thought there was a decent shot that I have the best hand. As described, I thought that Villain has most likely missed a draw. There was, of course, a chance that he has something, perhaps a weak Q (although I doubted that because he cold-called the pfr), perhaps TT or maybe god knows what.

Feel free to tear apart my analysis but I would be interested in responses that at least accept it for discussion purposes. If you have my read, how much do you bet, and why?

I will post what I did and results later.

Thank you.

[trumpman84]

I dont know much you're beating when villain min re-re-raises you on the flop. A flush draw would just call and not open the betting again to be re-raised off his hand. Basically, you are down to two outs or are hoping you are against the very least 2 overs and a flush draw. You've managed to create quite a big pot with 2nd pair. I'm guessing villain has a hand like AQ where's he's not crazy about it but wants to show it down or has a monster.

[ScottTheFish]

Wow that looks like some spewery with 2nd pair and no read.

But now that you're at the river why would you bet if you think he missed his draw? Hoping he'll bluff raise you? Check and hope to induce a bluff in you really think you're ahead. Or better yet hope he checks behind so you can show down cheap.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this hand illustrates two things pretty well. First, how people screw up their betting and don't lay the correct odds and, second, a value betting situation. I would be interested if people agree and invite comments on how to bet on the river.

Party 200 NL. It's my second orbit, so no specific read on Villain. Both Hero and Villain have about $200.

Preflop: MP1 raises to 6; Villain calls in MP2; all fold to Hero in BB who calls with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.

Flop: ($20) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif

MP1 (preflop raiser) checks; Villain bets $5; Hero check-raises to $20; Villain re-raises to $35; Hero calls.

Let me explain my flop play. I decided that the PF Raiser had wiffed and was giving up. There was a chance that he was hoping to c/r with, say, AA, but I thought that possibility was small, perhaps 25%. I thought that Villain's $5 bet into a $20 pot meant one of two things. Either it was a weak bet on a flush draw or an absolute monster. My c/r was a way to find out. (I realize now it should have been larger -- a flush draw still had odds to call, but so be it). I wasn't impressed by Villain's min re-raise to $35. If he really did have a big hand, he should have jammed it. As it was, I was getting 75:15 (i.e., 5:1) so I called.

Turn: ($90) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero checks. Villain checks.

I probably should have bet. After Villain checked I was confident he did not have a big hand and, most likely, was on a flush draw.

River: ($90) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif

I thought the River 8 was a blank and thought there was a decent shot that I have the best hand. As described, I thought that Villain has most likely missed a draw. There was, of course, a chance that he has something, perhaps a weak Q (although I doubted that because he cold-called the pfr), perhaps TT or maybe god knows what.

Feel free to tear apart my analysis but I would be interested in responses that at least accept it for discussion purposes. If you have my read, how much do you bet, and why?

I will post what I did and results later.

Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'm missing the part about "pot odds and how to value bet". This hand got very strange on the flop when villain re-raised your check-raise and you still figured he was on a draw. I'd need a VERY specific read to figure that.

[-Skeme-]

Fold flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I thought that Villain's $5 bet into a $20 pot meant one of two things. Either it was a weak bet on a flush draw or an absolute monster. My c/r was a way to find out. (I realize now it should have been larger -- a flush draw still had odds to call, but so be it).

[/ QUOTE ]

How is $15 to call into a $45 pot still giving odds to call a flush draw? Unless you want to over-cover pot odds to make up for implied odds.

Edit: Nevermind, my math was off. /images/graemlins/confused.gif