Bubble Call JJ?

Party Poker 10+1

On the Bubble with 4 players left. Blinds are 75/150.
No reads.
Hero Holds JJ.

UTG........ - 1900 chips, [raises] 1900 (all-in)
Button ... - 3800 chips [fold]
Hero (SB) - 1500 chips, [Calls] (all-in)
BB ........ - 800 chips [fold]

My line of thinking is that if UTG had a strong hand, he wouldnt raise all in like that. I put him on A8-Q, 22-1010 and made the call. He turns over KK and I die. Aleos guide says to never call a raise on the bubble without AK, AA, KK, but I felt like I should call, so I did. Am I stupid?

Also if anyones nice enough to answer one more... I broke even after 200 sngs at FREAKING 10+1!!! Ive had alot ALOT of bad beats during this 200 games, but something is wrong with my game for my ROI to be this bad isnt it?

Thanks in advance for any reply, Brian

I am not calling this. The blinds are pretty small. There is a short stack and its not like you cant out play this table, its a 10+1 for Goodness sake.

IMO, i think the better play is to aviod ending your tournament life.

[se2schul]

I call in a heartbeat. Play to win, not squeak into the money. His push range is likely very wide and JJ stands to be a huge favourite.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I call in a heartbeat. Play to win, not squeak into the money. His push range is likely very wide and JJ stands to be a huge favourite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

If he's pushing even with a range as wide as 33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+ this is EV-neutral; exactly 0.0%.

PS: He isn't pushing with this wide a range

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

Really?

If he's pushing even with a range as wide as 33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+ this is EV-neutral; exactly 0.0%.

PS: He isn't pushing with this wide a range

[/ QUOTE ]

If Hero is folding JJ here doesn't that make it correct for UTG to push with much more than that????

Most people try to extract value from AA & KK (and usually QQ), I mean clearly you can't remove them from the range since that's what he had, but if I was going to run the ICM at the table I would remove them from my PokerStove range (at this blind level, 100/200 I would include them).

JJ is a monster 4 handed. I am assuming that I am almost never dominated and I am calling. If the BB had about 200 fewer chips I am folding.

[tigerite]

Ok - let's put a more sensible range - top 10% minus AA,KK ?

So: 55,66,77,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,ATo+,A8s+,KQs

EV: +0.3%.

Hardly worth it.

[se2schul]

[ QUOTE ]

Really?

If he's pushing even with a range as wide as 33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+ this is EV-neutral; exactly 0.0%.

PS: He isn't pushing with this wide a range

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? This is probably a leak then. I put him on a wider range than that - Any Ace, any king, any pp less than QQ, any 2 broadway.

[ilya]

I would fold; I think his range will is actually pretty narrow here, the overlay is very small, and there is a shortish stack.

It doesn't matter that he'd be correct to push any 2 if he knew how tight our calling range was; he doesn't know this and almost certainly doesn't suspect such a crazy thing.

[durron597]

Alright, clearly the disagreement is coming from what we think his hand range is. I think it's more like Top 15% - Top 20% minus AA/KK against a typical opponent.

Think about what hands it's correct to push with here if I think the SB will fold anything but AA-QQ.

[durron597]

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I would fold; I think his range will is actually pretty narrow here, the overlay is very small, and there is a shortish stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you and tigerite think his range is so small? Maybe this is a leak...

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would fold; I think his range will is actually pretty narrow here, the overlay is very small, and there is a shortish stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you and tigerite think his range is so small? Maybe this is a leak...

[/ QUOTE ]

Cos he's pushing UTG, through a big stack, when he has 13xbb and doesn't need to push at all.

[Karak567]

This is a 10 + 1.

I can't fold this.

[se2schul]

[ QUOTE ]
Cos he's pushing UTG, through a big stack, when he has 13xbb and doesn't need to push at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

When a good player does this, you have to respect it. When your average $11 player does it, I think I have to assume that he isn't necessarily playing "properly". After all, the $11s are so easy because most don't know what proper bubble play is, nor do they know how to take the stack size to bind ratio into consideration. At a 33 I'd probably lay this down, but I'd still hesitate to do so in an $11 unless this play is shown to be a clear leak.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
but I'd still hesitate to do so in an $11 unless this play is shown to be a clear leak.

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It won't be shown to be a clear leak since it obviously depends on UTG's pushing range, which the OP doesn't really give us a clue.

The thing is, the BB has more than 6x, he's not a really desperate stack, one double up and he's easily in it.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Cos he's pushing UTG, through a big stack, when he has 13xbb and doesn't need to push at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

When a good player does this, you have to respect it. When your average $11 player does it, I think I have to assume that he isn't necessarily playing "properly". After all, the $11s are so easy because most don't know what proper bubble play is, nor do they know how to take the stack size to bind ratio into consideration. At a 33 I'd probably lay this down, but I'd still hesitate to do so in an $11 unless this play is shown to be a clear leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

You say above that you put him on any Ace and/or any King among other hands. I just can't see it. I think he's way more likely to limp in with that A6o or K4s. Nor do I think he's pushing any pair here. Maaaaybe 66+. I also think you can't totally exclude QQ-AA.
I dunno, I'm tired, but it seems like a fold to me.

[tigerite]

It sounds to me like the OP is guessing a range that perfectly fits with calling his push with JJ, which you simply can't do.

Either way this is marginal and at a $11 you shouldn't really be taking marginal decisions on the bubble. That's my opinion.