View Full Version : How long will SNG's stay REALLY profitable?
stanzee
08-30-2005, 11:26 PM
This has probably been spoken about before, but how long is it before SNG's start become a lot tougher even at the lower limits.
I've heard posters mention in the past that on the 109's and the 215's that it is already really tough to get any sort of edge as most people know how to play the bubble near perfectly, and wont make any really stupid moves before hand for example with top pair no kicker. My worry is that sooner or later all the donks playing the 11's to 55's will wake up and smell the coffee and learn how easy SNG's really are if they could just discipline themselves. Then i'll have to go back to learning NL cash games /images/graemlins/frown.gif.
Does anyone think that SNG's will still be as easy as they are now in 5 years time, or even 3 years? I really hope they will be, but not sure.
pergesu
08-30-2005, 11:31 PM
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I've heard posters mention in the past that on the 109's and the 215's that it is already really tough to get any sort of edge as most people know how to play the bubble near perfectly
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The key then is to extract EV from elsewhere in the tourney as well. It just takes some study and practice to princples of mahematically correct bubble play. Playing well early on in the tourney is much tougher to learn, in my opinion, or at least more difficult than using a basic study regimen.
Just think what it'd be like if you knew how to play well early on, AND played with people who made significant errors around the bubble. You'd be a beast.
ChuckNorris
08-30-2005, 11:39 PM
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My worry is that sooner or later all the donks playing the 11's to 55's will wake up and smell the coffee and learn how easy SNG's really are if they could just discipline themselves.
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There will always be newbies and recreational players. How and why exactly would all or even most of the donks suddenly become smart enough to start figuring out how to play correctly? More likely they'll go broke, stop playing poker and think that Partypoker is rigged. Then another donk comes to fill their place.
citanul
08-30-2005, 11:46 PM
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I've heard posters mention in the past that on the 109's and the 215's that it is already really tough to get any sort of edge as most people know how to play the bubble near perfectly, and wont make any really stupid moves before hand for example with top pair no kicker.
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blah, there are edges in the 215s. there are edges in the 1ks, and there are edges in the 5ks. they're just harder games than the games belwo them, fine. yes, the games are hard, but not even the average player at the 200s plays the bubble near perfectly.
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My worry is that sooner or later all the donks playing the 11's to 55's will wake up and smell the coffee and learn how easy SNG's really are if they could just discipline themselves. Then i'll have to go back to learning NL cash games /images/graemlins/frown.gif.
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once upon a time, i was a "donk" too i guess. it was some time before i played my first sng. get the point? there's always new donks coming in to the system populating all the stakes levels. worrying about when the games, particularly the sngs dry up because of no new money entering the system is more interesting than wondering when the people who play the 11s will all instantly wisen up and start playing at the quality of play as the 215s. the people that learn the things that you are talking about (and side note, just learning how to play the bubble isn't enough really to do well at the higher stakes games) are the people that move up stakes and become winners at higher stakes. individuals getting better is one thing, the whole world doesn't one day wake up and play great sng poker.
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Does anyone think that SNG's will still be as easy as they are now in 5 years time, or even 3 years? I really hope they will be, but not sure.
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i dunno what i think about these games in 3 or 5 years. i will likely not be playing them, so i don't think about it.
citanul
Michael C.
08-30-2005, 11:47 PM
There's always going to be plenty of people who won't bother to read, study, or learn from their mistakes. So as long as you have some intelligence and are open minded, there is money to be made. There are some very good players in the 109s, but plenty of others that are very bad.
"the whole world doesn't one day wake up and play great sng poker."
Most people are too lazy to put in the effort.
-Skeme-
08-31-2005, 01:54 AM
So how do you play the bubble perfectly?
citanul
08-31-2005, 01:57 AM
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So how do you play the bubble perfectly?
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i just get [censored] up and use the slider.
citanul
microbet
08-31-2005, 01:57 AM
Until 10/04/2005.
raptor517
08-31-2005, 02:03 AM
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So how do you play the bubble perfectly?
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perfect pushing and calling based on yer amazing ability to put someone on a range. holla
-Skeme-
08-31-2005, 02:04 AM
You know of any in depth threads about this that I can go study?
raptor517
08-31-2005, 02:14 AM
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You know of any in depth threads about this that I can go study?
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its more of an experience thing. after thousands of sngs you start to figure it out, and can almost predict exactly when they will call yer pushes and when they will push. its creepy. holla
raptor517
08-31-2005, 02:16 AM
what i think, is that the growth of poker will die down within the next 5 years.. but there will still be occasional newcomers, and people that are always willing to gamble off 50 bucks or 20 bucks or whatever on sngs. therefore, ill always at LEAST have a summer job 230582093892 tabling 22s or something. will poker be sa good in 5 years as it is now? i doubt it. will it still be quite profitable? absolutely. holla
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its more of an experience thing. after thousands of sngs you start to figure it out, and can almost predict exactly when they will call yer pushes and when they will push. its creepy. holla
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This is an amazingly accurate description.
microbet
08-31-2005, 02:20 AM
There are other countries in the world. Gambling is more popular in some of them than the US. Some of them have a lot of growth coming as far as getting online.
It may still be profitible after 10/04/2005.
-Skeme-
08-31-2005, 02:23 AM
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its more of an experience thing. after thousands of sngs you start to figure it out, and can almost predict exactly when they will call yer pushes and when they will push. its creepy.
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I do this, but I don't know much about assigning ranges and comparing with pot odds and probability in some super official mathematical way.
OOC, how many SNGs do you usually play a day? And how many tables? Thanks.
"Gambling is more popular in some of them than the US. Some of them have a lot of growth coming as far as getting online."
But are they as rich and dumb as americans /images/graemlins/confused.gif It's ok, I'm just telling it like it is. FWIW aussies are worse than everyone, even the americans (well when it comes to gambling /images/graemlins/wink.gif).
raptor517
08-31-2005, 02:36 AM
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its more of an experience thing. after thousands of sngs you start to figure it out, and can almost predict exactly when they will call yer pushes and when they will push. its creepy.
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I do this, but I don't know much about assigning ranges and comparing with pot odds and probability in some super official mathematical way.
OOC, how many SNGs do you usually play a day? And how many tables? Thanks.
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how many do i play a day.. i duno it depends on how hard i want to work. im back in school now so dont have too many free hours when im not chasin tcu girlies around. i used to play around 50-60 hours a week always 8 tabling.. now ill try to play a couple hours a day and.. a lot of tables. im still figuring out how many is too much. holla
citanul
08-31-2005, 02:42 AM
i htink you need to sit down and make a decision about if you're going to play sng or ring games.
citanul
Newt_Buggs
08-31-2005, 02:49 AM
everyone knew that you used to play a lot, but 50-60 hours??? Thats impressive, I bet that I would go crazy after a couple of weeks of 40 hours.
psyduck
08-31-2005, 02:56 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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its more of an experience thing. after thousands of sngs you start to figure it out, and can almost predict exactly when they will call yer pushes and when they will push. its creepy.
[/ QUOTE ]
I do this, but I don't know much about assigning ranges and comparing with pot odds and probability in some super official mathematical way.
OOC, how many SNGs do you usually play a day? And how many tables? Thanks.
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how many do i play a day.. i duno it depends on how hard i want to work. im back in school now so dont have too many free hours when im not chasin tcu girlies around. i used to play around 50-60 hours a week always 8 tabling.. now ill try to play a couple hours a day and.. a lot of tables. im still figuring out how many is too much. holla
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That is goddamn impressive. I'm having trouble doing 6 hrs a day.
raptor517
08-31-2005, 02:56 AM
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i htink you need to sit down and make a decision about if you're going to play sng or ring games.
citanul
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why? i can make about 2039850923592308 sklansky bucks an hour at both of em. you forget mtts also. i like to mix it up sometimes in case i get bored. keeps things interesting. holla
citanul
08-31-2005, 02:58 AM
can't play mtts if you only wanna play 2 hours at a stretch...
citanul
raptor517
08-31-2005, 03:05 AM
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can't play mtts if you only wanna play 2 hours at a stretch...
citanul
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mtts are diff slut. i wont be playing those much at all cuz of the damned school.. but ill make a habit of playing all the good ones on sundays. holla
jon462
08-31-2005, 06:13 AM
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Until 10/04/2005.
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are you sure? I think they will last till November at least.
fnord_too
08-31-2005, 09:12 AM
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My worry is that sooner or later all the donks playing the 11's to 55's will wake up and smell the coffee and learn how easy SNG's really are if they could just discipline themselves.
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I have not read the other responses but I think they will be nice for quite a while, especially at the lower levels. Think about casinos: people still throw away money in the pit games at a staggering rate even knowing they are suckers for playing. Moreover, dicipline is not a common trait, so even when people know how to play well they do not.
Additionally, I think there is more profit outside of STTs. I don't think that really comes into play until you have a more than adequate bankroll for the 215's (or whatever the highest popular beatable STT is) though. From a bankroll perspective, I think STT's offer the greatest potential. (i.e. I think it takes less bankroll to achieve a given hourly rate at a set risk of ruin in STT's than anywhere else right now, though NL ring games is not too far behind.)
fnord_too
08-31-2005, 09:18 AM
Check out Eastbay's tool for analysis. As to ranges, try to come up with a few for tight, normal, and loose pushers and callers. As to what to push, there is a face up chart somewhere that maybe someone can link. It shows (I think) when it is right to push with a fixed stack if your cards were face up and your opponent played perfectly. Also, I have a spreadsheet somewhere (someone's hosting it, and it is linked a few places, but I don't have the link handy) that shows you, amongst other things, how often your hand has to be good if you get a call to make pushing profitable for a given stack size (it takes number of people to act into account).
Nicholasp27
08-31-2005, 09:59 AM
technically they will always be profitable so long as you can be better than the average player
even if the skill level of the average player rises dramatically, you can make a lot of money at them if you can be better than that average...and sngs are quick and you can multi-table, thus making them 'really profitable' so long as you can be better than average
with rb, if u can just break-even (that is, be enough above average to just cover the rake) while 12-tabling 200/15s, then that is 12*15*.25=$45 every 46 mins = $59/hour (more if u start a new one as soon as you bust out of one)
so 200/15s will always be profitable so long as there is rakeback and you can just beat the ave players for the rake
Raiser
08-31-2005, 10:54 AM
I've been playing the $22s for the past month or so. I am still getting a gauge on bubble play, so take this for what it is worth. I would guess that only something like 5-10% of my opponents know how to play the bubble correctly. I don't think that's underestimating. So I am not in the least bit worried about the lower games becoming too hard in the near future.
As grandma always said, "Rich people can be moronic too". Even the higher levels have fish, though way less. I have been playing the 11s and slumming the 6.50s for a year now and have made quite a good side living at it. But I guess buying a car with winnings would make any player happy.
One thing I've noticed is that the regulars at the STT forum dont have that many posts (<5000) and most registration dates are relatively new ('04-'05). If you go to the other forums like mid-high stakes LHE, you'll see a couple of posters with over 10K+ posts and reg. dates as back as far as the birth of the site.
What I think this means is that SnG's a relativaly new to the poker world and we (the ones who have the motivation to play better(2+2ers) are just beginning to understand how to correctly play these unique games.
So to answer the question, I think SnG's will be profitable for a long time to come.
stanzee
08-31-2005, 02:07 PM
Well lets just hope not too many people start reading these forums and start playing more correctly.
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Well lets just hope not too many people start reading these forums and start playing more correctly.
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No way.
raptor517
08-31-2005, 02:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
technically they will always be profitable so long as you can be better than the average player
even if the skill level of the average player rises dramatically, you can make a lot of money at them if you can be better than that average...and sngs are quick and you can multi-table, thus making them 'really profitable' so long as you can be better than average
with rb, if u can just break-even (that is, be enough above average to just cover the rake) while 12-tabling 200/15s, then that is 12*15*.25=$45 every 46 mins = $59/hour (more if u start a new one as soon as you bust out of one)
so 200/15s will always be profitable so long as there is rakeback and you can just beat the ave players for the rake
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good luck playing 215s to break even. 30k swings to make 50 bucks an hour just makes ya feel dandy inside. holla
Maulik
08-31-2005, 03:31 PM
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i htink you need to sit down and make a decision about if you're going to play sng or ring games.
citanul
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i think switching games or mixing up the games you play keeps your mind sharp.
MegaBet
08-31-2005, 04:53 PM
Wait until 1 BILLION Chinese people get online...
oh yeah they love the gamble also. /images/graemlins/grin.gif
The Don
08-31-2005, 05:49 PM
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Wait until 1 BILLION Chinese people get online...
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Too bad all Chinese are naturally good at math! /images/graemlins/wink.gif
MegaBet
08-31-2005, 05:55 PM
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Wait until 1 BILLION Chinese people get online...
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Too bad all Chinese are naturally good at math! /images/graemlins/wink.gif
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Watch any poker on TV and they are just gamblers...Tuan Le, Danny Nguyen and those 2 guys who won the Circuit events...just gamblers who had their day. Long term, think long term.
BakyPT
08-31-2005, 11:26 PM
When they get online playing poker it will make it harder.
Playing ABC poker is easy to make an year income in a month at 11-55 limits.
They are already power playing MMORPG to sell gold,items to people in rich countries. And no way they make 1000$ a month doing that.
Maybe then they can write a new version of Zen and the art of poker with some good advice!
raptor517
09-01-2005, 12:12 AM
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Wait until 1 BILLION Chinese people get online...
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Too bad all Chinese are naturally good at math! /images/graemlins/wink.gif
[/ QUOTE ]
Watch any poker on TV and they are just gamblers...Tuan Le, Danny Nguyen and those 2 guys who won the Circuit events...just gamblers who had their day. Long term, think long term.
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tuan le won 2 wpt titles if im not mistaken.. clearly all luck. holla
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