Raise the flop or just right?

[fnord_too]

My agression level in the early rounds is way below what it is in MTTs and cash games and I am trying to find the range. Specificly I semi bluff raise and check raise with a much lower frequency. Here is an example where I pull the trigger on the flop in the early rounds much less frequently than in those other venues.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t985)
Hero (t915)
CO (t2170)
Button (t1060)
SB (t970)
BB (t1090)
UTG (t825)
UTG+1 (t985)
MP1 (t1000)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t15, MP2 calls t15, Hero calls t15, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t75) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t80</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls t80, MP2 folds, Hero calls t80.

Turn: (t315) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (t315) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: t315

[gumpzilla]

I'll go either way, depends how I'm feeling at the moment and on how likely I think I am to get paid if the flush does come.

Why not bet the turn? Too transparent?

[bluefeet]

Just right IMO.

5-handed, a raise on the flop (short of a push - which is just too much for me, this early), is often a quick way to lose your ga-jillion out chasing. Too often, you'll get an over-push from this ever-growing pot - REALLY putting you to the test. Given the opportunity to see the turn for anything less than all your chips is a gift.

Could be an arguement for hitting the turn. A lead followed by a check smells a lot like a draw. A substantial piece of this flop isn't likely to give the river free with two-flush draws on board. The problem is "selling it". As THIS card is as unlikely to improve your hand. A modest bet won't get you much here (accept maybe a c/r!). I personally couldn't risk more though this early.

River? Meh.....same problem. Smallish bet gets called from one holding a small "piece", larger bet puts you in jeopardy early in the tourney.

I like your line.

[bruin]

Yea I really don't like to commit a lot of chips in the early rounds without a made hand. You lost 95 chips missing your draw to the nuts, move on to the next hand.

[Chaostracize]

Half pot the turn.

[Freudian]

I liked the way you played the hand. When you have five to the flop a raise can easily backfire here.

[fnord_too]

Thanks for the feedback. I did not bet the turn for a few reasons:
<ul type="square"> I have two opponents
I hate getting raised on the turn (on the flop I don't mind a reraise nearly as much since with two cards to come I don't have a problem with putting all my chips in the center with the nut flush draw and two overs)
Since the flop bet came through so many people, I have to give the original bettor credit for some sort of made hand, probably weak like TPBK or a pocket pair less than jacks, and we all know how much people love to call
A 1/2 post size bet is one sixth of my chips
[/list]

The reasons I like betting on flops like this elsewhere is that (I get to use my new favorite UBB code again):
<ul type="square"> It builds the pot when I am builting to a nut hand
It disguises my hand some so the chance of stacking someone, or at least getting more chips off them, if I hit goes up
I may have the opportunity to take a free card on the turn (since a lot of times players will pot the turn in these situations if you call the flop, denying you the right price to see the river)
I may win the pot outright
I may set up a turn semi bluff or a river bluff
[/list]

Here though I don't think it is worth risking the chips needed to raise (120-240 more) and I give villain the opportunity to push (and if anyone is pushing here, I want it to be me, stack sizes are a little awkward). I think it is close though, and change one or two things and raising the flop looks a lot more appealing.

Oh, results. Um, sb had Jx, and the other guy has utter crap IIRC, like ATo (or QTo, paint ten or 9 I think that never got anywhere).