Bottom set 3 bet from tight guy

[MINETZ]

There are 2 villans in this hand, one is a huge donk and has 700 with a 69 vpip over 100 hands, the other is a 10/0/0 ( this is only over 30 hands, obviously not nearly enough)

the converter messed up, so some id done by hand
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 ($103.75)
MP1 ($191)
MP2 ($207.90)
Hero ($247.15)
CO ($774.95)
Button ($197.25)
SB ($194)
BB ($177)
UTG ($290.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $5, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($20) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
check check, donk bets 12 tight calls i make it 40 donk calls and tight moves in


do i have enough information to fold bottom set?

[jjacky]

no, you don't have sufficient information to fold. i think a fold would be a huge mistake.

[MINETZ]

what else could such a tight player be holding that he would be willing to risk all thats infront of him?

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
what else could such a tight player be holding that he would be willing to risk all thats infront of him?

[/ QUOTE ]

you have only 30 hands. he can have anything (overpair, two pair, straight draw, etc.).

[DoomSlice]

Even tight players can overplay overpairs.

[MINETZ]

I undersand, but tight players are worried if their overpairs are good when there is a bet and a check raise, they are not happily going to push their stack in with like jj-qq in this spot.

[djoyce003]

did the tight player raise preflop or did the donk?

[MINETZ]

sorry, donk, thats why i dont put him on an overpair.

[jt1]

Tightie is SB, right?

No one plays AA this way. 89 would be played this way but would tightie call in SB with 89? No -- Tightie has a higher set, just no way around it

[djoyce003]

yeah you are probably beat by a set over set here because his stats look very set-minerish. However, you have 30 hands with this guy you can't give him credit for it here. If you never fold a set unless the board is a 4-straight or 4-flush you are going to win more than you lose on marginal situations like this one.....the only thing beating you right now is a bigger set and most of the time, they won't have it.

[MINETZ]

im such a pussy for not following my reads, he couldve just shown me 88 or 99 the way he played it, i knew but i clicked the call button anyway and he showed me 88 as expected.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
im such a pussy for not following my reads, he couldve just shown me 88 or 99 the way he played it, i knew but i clicked the call button anyway and he showed me 88 as expected.

[/ QUOTE ]

no! there is nothing wrong with losing all your chips in a set vs set situation. if you will fold a set every time you suspect that the other guy has a higher set you will cost yourself (very much) money.

[djoyce003]

I agree...i'd puke when he showed me the 88 too, but I still think folding here is a mistake....set over set is just so rare it's hard to fold here.

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree...i'd puke when he showed me the 88 too, but I still think folding here is a mistake....set over set is just so rare it's hard to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this one's real close though. The whole line looks so damn setty. I def. don't think you'd be miss a lot of EV if you folded this.

[trumpman84]

Doyle says all you need is an out. You have an out...call!

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
Doyle says all you need is an out. You have an out...call!

[/ QUOTE ]

good point /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

but as far as i remember he refered to (semi) bluffs, not to calls...

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Tightie is SB, right?

No one plays AA this way. 89 would be played this way but would tightie call in SB with 89? No -- Tightie has a higher set, just no way around it

[/ QUOTE ]

[ryanghall]

30 hands? I'm calling for sure.

Ryan