MasterShakes
08-30-2005, 06:48 PM
I do not weight my selections, so just consider each play to be one unit. I'll do my best to play against current lines, but I'll also point out whether I think you should wait on a line or jump on it now. I'll also point out where I made the play myself (if at all yet). Bottom line: figure out what side you want and then figure out the best way possible to bet it.
This first post will likely not be my only plays, but any plays that I add will go in this thread also. I will be completely honest on my record, as I am absolutely not ashamed to lose in the short term.
Keep in mind that the picks I list below are certainly not the only plays that I'm betting. In addition to these, I have gotten plays from other sources, and I have plays that I have already made at different lines (i.e. AZ St. at -26.5, Duke at -1.5, Georgia at -7, NC St. at +5.5). In other words, these are the picks that I want to be made public as my own.
On to the picks...
Louisiana Lafayette +40.5 over Texas. This line can be had at a couple of different books right now. The vast majority of books are at least 40. Pinnacle is firmly planted at 39.5 and doesn't look to be budging at the moment. You'll find in many of my plays that I am bigger on psychological and situational factors in combination with line value/movement, than on almost any other factors (my opinion is and experience has shown that other factors are usually pretty well factored into the line already). The situation for Texas is this: They're opening at home against a cake opponent. They have a trip to Columbus to face the Buckeyes to look forward to. This could be a blowout, but with the big game on deck, I don't see why they would go out of their way to trounce this team, risking injuring starters. They get up by four touchdowns or so and pull back the reigns. Perhaps they even get up over the spread and ULL pulls out a backdoor cover. Either way, 40.5 seems like too many here. Line movement: This line might go even higher here. It opened at around 38 at Pinnacle, around 39 in Vegas. The public hasn't even gotten their hands on this game yet, and Bodog might hang a line of 41 or so when they open later this evening, and even that might steam up. Worst you should get this line at is 40. Play it down to 37.
Hawaii +35 over USC. Yes, another big dog. This line climbed to 35 and has been slowly inching back down into the 34/34.5 range. It can still be had at 35 in a couple places. It could easily still steam back up to and beyond 35. I love Hawaii at home here. Yes, yes, yes, like everyone else, I think they will be handled quite well by USC. However, Hawaii will do some scoring of their own in this game. USC has a long, tough season to look forward to with everybody gunning for them. While USC clearly has the best offense in the nation, I see no reason why they run it up here. Hawaii covers, perhaps in backdoor fashion, at home in this one. Play it down to 33.
Western Michigan/Virginia over 55. Line can be had at Pinnacle at -108. Virginia has a pretty solid offense going against one of the worst defenses in college football. Virginia's defense is nothing spectacular, and WM should put up some points themselves. Play it over to 57, though getting 55 should be no problem.
That's all I have for now. I will almost certainly have more later.
Edited to add: Books you will need to get my lines are...
Pinnacle
Mansion
BetCascade
Bodog
Guardian
Bowmans
(Might be adding more books later)
This first post will likely not be my only plays, but any plays that I add will go in this thread also. I will be completely honest on my record, as I am absolutely not ashamed to lose in the short term.
Keep in mind that the picks I list below are certainly not the only plays that I'm betting. In addition to these, I have gotten plays from other sources, and I have plays that I have already made at different lines (i.e. AZ St. at -26.5, Duke at -1.5, Georgia at -7, NC St. at +5.5). In other words, these are the picks that I want to be made public as my own.
On to the picks...
Louisiana Lafayette +40.5 over Texas. This line can be had at a couple of different books right now. The vast majority of books are at least 40. Pinnacle is firmly planted at 39.5 and doesn't look to be budging at the moment. You'll find in many of my plays that I am bigger on psychological and situational factors in combination with line value/movement, than on almost any other factors (my opinion is and experience has shown that other factors are usually pretty well factored into the line already). The situation for Texas is this: They're opening at home against a cake opponent. They have a trip to Columbus to face the Buckeyes to look forward to. This could be a blowout, but with the big game on deck, I don't see why they would go out of their way to trounce this team, risking injuring starters. They get up by four touchdowns or so and pull back the reigns. Perhaps they even get up over the spread and ULL pulls out a backdoor cover. Either way, 40.5 seems like too many here. Line movement: This line might go even higher here. It opened at around 38 at Pinnacle, around 39 in Vegas. The public hasn't even gotten their hands on this game yet, and Bodog might hang a line of 41 or so when they open later this evening, and even that might steam up. Worst you should get this line at is 40. Play it down to 37.
Hawaii +35 over USC. Yes, another big dog. This line climbed to 35 and has been slowly inching back down into the 34/34.5 range. It can still be had at 35 in a couple places. It could easily still steam back up to and beyond 35. I love Hawaii at home here. Yes, yes, yes, like everyone else, I think they will be handled quite well by USC. However, Hawaii will do some scoring of their own in this game. USC has a long, tough season to look forward to with everybody gunning for them. While USC clearly has the best offense in the nation, I see no reason why they run it up here. Hawaii covers, perhaps in backdoor fashion, at home in this one. Play it down to 33.
Western Michigan/Virginia over 55. Line can be had at Pinnacle at -108. Virginia has a pretty solid offense going against one of the worst defenses in college football. Virginia's defense is nothing spectacular, and WM should put up some points themselves. Play it over to 57, though getting 55 should be no problem.
That's all I have for now. I will almost certainly have more later.
Edited to add: Books you will need to get my lines are...
Pinnacle
Mansion
BetCascade
Bodog
Guardian
Bowmans
(Might be adding more books later)