A Flop Push

[GrunchCan]

Party $200 NL, 6-handed.

I am on the button with $200 and A/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif. Everyone folds to me, and I make it $12 to go. The SB folds. The BB (a tricky, good & aggressive player) calls the 12. He has me covered.

2 to the flop for ~$25. Flop comes: K/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

The BB checks. I push.

Edited stakes. This is a hypothetic example of something I'm thinking about.

[djoyce003]

seems like a great way to lose your stack so that you can win $3 bucks....nothing you are beating calls and all kinds of stuff that is ahead of you calls. This is party 25...do you really think someone is going to make a 'big laydown' here?

[GrunchCan]

This is actually a hypothetic example. Let's make it the PP $200 game, if that changes your outlook.

[ajmargarine]

Hard for him to call this. But. Risking $23 to win $3 pots with bottom pair + a gutshot is -EV in the long run.

[Riposte]

What kind of folding equity do you expect to get from this guy, or $25 or $200NL in general?

[djoyce003]

really it doesn't change my opinion....you get called here by AK, KQ, KT...maybe QT as well....also someone could easily have a SF draw here since it's 3 to a straight already.....u just aren't folding out any hands that are beating you I'd think. Why would you play this way instead of just playing poker? Would you agree that anything that calls you here is either 1) already beating you, or 2) a favorite to be beating you by the river?

[GrunchCan]

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Hard for him to call this. But. Risking $23 to win $3 pots with bottom pair + a gutshot is -EV in the long run.

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Ok, what if my stack was cut in half?

[GrunchCan]

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Why would you play this way instead of just playing poker?

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I will answer this question a little later.

[GrunchCan]

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Hard for him to call this. But. Risking $23 to win $3 pots with bottom pair + a gutshot is -EV in the long run.

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What if the T/images/graemlins/spade.gif on board was actually the T/images/graemlins/heart.gif?

[ajmargarine]

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Hard for him to call this. But. Risking $23 to win $3 pots with bottom pair + a gutshot is -EV in the long run.

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What if the T/images/graemlins/spade.gif on board was actually the T/images/graemlins/heart.gif?

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I can't keep up with all the changing hypotheticals. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif What's the whole point of this?

EDIT: Artificially inflating the stakes doesn't matter. You should be trying to play good poker at whatever level you are at, and this IMO, is -EV in the long run. (At least the first scenario you presented)

[GrunchCan]

Sorry.

I read this from Jennifer Harman's website. I was trying to distill from Chip Reese's advice (which was only tersely explained and applied to a tournament structure) something I can apply to my cash game. So I changed the hypotheticals around trying to see how things affected each other.

Sorry to abuse you like that.

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The World Poker Tour, founded in 2003, has come to enjoy huge popularity, and its prize pools have kept pace with its growth. The tour has certainly gained my interest, and I've started playing in a few of the events. Normally I play cash games at the Bellagio and find that tournaments are just too draining, as well as frustrating! I wouldn't consider no-limit Hold'em to be my best game by any means, but I've spent a lot of time recently working on my game, and my confidence has been growing.

Coming into this event at the Borgata, in Atlantic City, I had high expectations. I felt that I was playing well, and that if I could catch a lucky break here and there I'd have a legitimate chance to win it. Well, with just seven players left I was cruising right along and could just taste victory. Then I was faced with an interesting hand that I'll probably be second-guessing for years to come: with blinds at $10,000 - 15,000 with a $2,000 ante, I was sitting in pretty good shape with $300,000 in chips. The others folded to me, and I was on the button with Ah-10c. I decided to raise it, making it $45,000 to go. The big blind, a tricky player named Charles Shoten, aka "Scotty Warbucks," called the raise. Charlie had more chips than I did, so it was important that I observe some caution against such a skilled and cunning player. The flop came Kh-Qh-10h. "Wow, that was a pretty sweet flop for my hand," I thought. A pair of tens and a royal flush draw! Charlie checked, and I bet $80,000, which was close to three quarters of the pot size. Charlie called. The turn brought the 10s. Wow, this hand just keeps getting better and better. Now Charlie again checked, and I decided to check also (more on that later). The river brought the 9c.Oh, what an ugly card. For me that had to be the single worst card that could have come on the river. Charlie bet out just $40,000, and with so much money in the pot I decided to call it. Charlie turned over two red nines for a full house, nines over tens.

So what happened here? Why did I check the turn? Why did I pay him off on the river? Well, here was my thinking: knowing how tricky Charlie was, I thought there was a reasonable chance that he'd flopped a straight (with a hand of J-9or A-J) or even possibly a flush of some kind. In fact, I also didn't rule out the possibility that Charlie was trapping me with a set of K-K or Q-Q, which would have given him a full house. Couple that with the fact that if I did in fact have the best hand, there would be very few outs against me. I had the straight covered with my ace if a jack hit, and the same ace was also protecting me from any heart that might come on the river. Of course, if Charlie had had a jack in his hand, for an open-ended straight draw, an ace would have made him the straight, but it would have made me a full house. There was also a decent chance that Charlie was drawing completely dead against my hand. At best, he could have had a total of five outs (provided I had the best hand, of course). If he'd had a hand like K-J, for example, he would have had three nines and 2 kings to beat me for a total of five outs. Now that's the worst case scenario. As it turned out, my check on the turn gave Charlie two free outs, and it was my bad luck to lose this pot.

It kept me thinking, though, how off was my thought process here? Was there any real merit to the check? Should I have just protected my hand, since it was a tournament, and bet big on the turn? I had a lot of questions, so I asked several players whose game I respect, and got very different answers. Phil Ivey: "I would have moved all-in on the turn. It's a tournament, and I want what's in the middle. I don't want to give my opponents any free cards to beat me." Daniel Negreanu: "Considering your read of Charlie, I liked the check on the turn. You were only going to get called when you were beat, and the worst thing that could have happened is you give him a free shot when he is drawing real slim anyway." It wasn't till I talked to legend, arguably the best poker player who has ever walked this earth, that the right answer dawned on me. Phil, Daniel, and I were all preoccupied with the wrong potential error.

Here is what David "Chip" Reese had to say: "I would have avoided the whole dilemma by moving all-in on the flop. If you bet the $80,000 and get raised, you are going to call anyway, so why not just move all-in first? That way, you might even get your opponent to lay down the best hand as well." Duh! It seems so obvious to me now, but at the time it never dawned on me. Thanks, Chip!

As to my call on the river, the pot was laying me such a big price when Charlie bet just $40,000 that I felt I just had to call.There was over $250,000 in the pot, so I was being laid well over 6-to-1 odds that Charlie was either (a) bluffing or (b) making a smallish bet with what he felt might be the best hand (possibly A-K or even 10-8).

I hope you've all enjoyed reading about this hand. I'll tell you what, though; I sure didn't enjoy the way it played out.

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[JaBlue]

yeah, this move sucks.

[yvesaint]

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yeah, this move sucks.

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[djoyce003]

yes, clearly if you change your hand to be ATh then you have a royal flush draw/straight draw/plus a pair...totally different scenario than just bottom pair and a gutshot that will put 4 to the straight on the board and scare off any hand that doesn't split. Then I don't mind the push as much because you could have as many as 15 outs to win, but it's actually probably less because some of your outs might be splits or might give your opponent a straight and not you.

[TheWorstPlayer]

This is insane.

[amoeba]

notice how situation in article was tourney with 20xblind stacks where you are doing your best not to bust out and thus all thoughts of getting value from your hand or playing most EV line is altered.