JJ bubble question

[KyleH186]

#Game No : 2624115628
***** Hand History for Game 2624115628 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:15298740 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Tuesday, August 30, 15:22:01 EDT 2005
Table Table 18978 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 6: i_candy71 ( $3302 )
Seat 1: GlobexBB ( $3539 )
Seat 4: VikUsp ( $2184 )
Seat 8: bars69 ( $975 )
Trny:15298740 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to GlobexBB [ Jc Js ]
i_candy71 raises [900].
bars69 folds.
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
GlobexBB will be using his time bank for this hand.
GlobexBB is all-In [3389]
VikUsp folds.
i_candy71 is all-In [2402]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qd, 6c, 3s ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ks ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8c ]



results in white:
<font color="white"> i_candy71 shows [ Kc, As ] a pair of kings.
GlobexBB shows [ Jc, Js ] a pair of jacks.
GlobexBB wins 237 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of jacks.
i_candy71 wins 6904 chips from the main pot with a pair of kings.
</font>




I don't like the way I played this. After thinking it over like a stop and go better. Anyone agree?

[KyleH186]

bump

[parappa]

I play it the same.

You're being pretty results-oriented here. These are pretty big stacks to stop and go with, so you're letting him get off cheaply and correctly on the flop with a lot of mid PPs and big cards. Also, he could raise with a wide range of hands that you can push him off preflop here, like Kx, maybe Qx. Turns out that a stop and go would've been perfect if you were precient, but I think your play was good if you try to ignore the results. (A nice way to comfort yourself about a hand like this is to say he probably would've called on the flop anyway.)

[Bco1/75]

i haven't seen your results, but what was your read on the other player? Trying to steal or had a hand? Why not call and fire on the Q high flop? What was your image? Being on the bubble I am not sure I want a call with JJ.If he calls I'd say he at least has AQ? Lower PP if you are lucky but then I don't see him calling that. Thus I would be more inclined to take the flop and fire from there if it looked safe. I am guessing AK?

[Messy Harry]

You're on the bubble, in the chip lead, with position on the pf raiser. I'm not sure this is the right spot to gamble.

On the other hand, folding jacks 4 handed is pretty hard to do. Without reads (which were not provided in your post), I might lean towards calling and re-evaluating on the flop.

[KyleH186]

My read on the villain was that she was a total fish. Early on she was reraising with aj, and pushing with aq. I read her for a hand similar to that, in the aj, aq, ak range. I was stupid to think she could be pushed off anythign but a bluff.

[raptor517]

this is a shove by far and it isnt even relatively close. holla

[BigHobo]

I fold this without hesitation.

Think about it from villain's perspective. He's 2nd stack, betting 27% of his chips into the only player with enough chips to take him out. Meanwhile, it's the bubble and the short stack has only a couple of orbits left. If I'm villain, I only make that raise under the following conditions:

1) I have a monster hand (AA, KK, QQ, AK)
2) I'm planning on calling a re-raise

Under those conditions, as hero with the big stack (but a stack small enough to be crippled by villain), putting it on the line with JJ just doesn't make much sense.

Edit: The above assumes no significant reads.

[KyleH186]

lol seems like every response goes one way or the other.

[KramerTM]

Standard, I do believe. How else might you play this? I hate folding, and I hate calling even more. No other choice. Click that raise button!

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
Trying to steal or had a hand? Why not call and fire on the Q high flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't like this. What if he is raising with Q2 here just to be cute. Villain folds to a reraise with far too many hands that are not terrible dogs to your hand too often to smooth call here.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
lol seems like every response goes one way or the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

Listen to Raptor if you're not going to listen to me. At least he "hollas" at the end of every post.

[KyleH186]

I didnt expect the villain to lay down any hand she raised to be quite honest. Like I said, she was reraising AJ in the first 10 hands. And reraising aq all in against EP raisers. If her hand was worth raising it was worth going all in with. Thats why I like a stop and go more. I could be being results oriented though.

[Havok]

[ QUOTE ]
I didnt expect the villain to lay down any hand she raised to be quite honest. Like I said, she was reraising AJ in the first 10 hands. And reraising aq all in against EP raisers. If her hand was worth raising it was worth going all in with. Thats why I like a stop and go more. I could be being results oriented though.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you in the SB? If so I love the stop and go here. I had a smilar hand in reverse. I had the Ace King, limped PF, Button raises with pocket queens. I push. And the flop I hit my ace, but villian hits a queen on the river. I've given it a lot of though, and in retrospect stop n go. This gives the aggressor the chance to fold so I don't have to worry about them hitting the cash card on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
I didnt expect the villain to lay down any hand she raised to be quite honest. Like I said, she was reraising AJ in the first 10 hands. And reraising aq all in against EP raisers. If her hand was worth raising it was worth going all in with. Thats why I like a stop and go more. I could be being results oriented though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the problem with the stop and go is that the fold's correct in most cases when he folds, and the whole point is for him to make an incorrect fold. Then, if we push preflop, we get all the money in with the best hand and a good chance at having a huge stack (i'm not sure of villain's range here, but you're making me suspect that it's pretty broad and includes a lot of over/unders and small PPs). If you call and push the flop, he either calls with all his hands, in which case nothing changes, or he folds missed small pocket pairs and overs, which would be correct as your stack is larger than the pot size at this point, and none of these hands are even 2-1. Since your not forcing any mistakes with this play, it's incorrect based on cEV.

The play may, however, be correct if you factor in ICM because it lowers your chances of busting in fourth with shorty there.

Another interesting play is to call and push any flop without an ace, but I don't know if you can narrow villain's hand enough for that here.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didnt expect the villain to lay down any hand she raised to be quite honest. Like I said, she was reraising AJ in the first 10 hands. And reraising aq all in against EP raisers. If her hand was worth raising it was worth going all in with. Thats why I like a stop and go more. I could be being results oriented though.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are you in the SB? If so I love the stop and go here. I had a smilar hand in reverse. I had the Ace King, limped PF, Button raises with pocket queens. I push. And the flop I hit my ace, but villian hits a queen on the river. I've given it a lot of though, and in retrospect stop n go. This gives the aggressor the chance to fold so I don't have to worry about them hitting the cash card on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm... you can't make a play assuming that specific cards will come out.

[KyleH186]

When I say stop and go I mean call preflop and push any reasonable flop. Im not gonna push if the flop is AKQ. I was also confident that without some sort of bad beat, I was going to beat the villain once we were ITM. She truly was atrocious. Once again maybe Im being results oriented since she turned the K and not flopped it. But most hands miss most flops, thats the beauty of the stop and go. Plus fish are less reluctant to call with 2 to come, than 5.