River Play after donk bets

I am not sure about this river, after the turn bet should i just be calling down or is a raise okay?

Villain is a very passive 21/7/.7 only over 100 hands though

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (6.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (10.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ...</font>

[Bodhi]

This all depends on whether he's the kind of donk who donk-bets rigidly as a bluff and check-raises his good hands, or if he's a donk who almost never check-raises and bets his good hands.

Anyway, raise this river for value.

[Dagger78]

I would definately raise this river.

Typical opponents with bet into you on the turn with some weak aces and middle pairs because they don't think you have an ace. When you raise and he calls the turn it's unlikely he has Aces up, since he would most likely 3 bet you with that.

On the river he's pulling the same stunt, he has an ace, most likely a weaker kicker than a Q. I would raise here.

Yeah I'm raising for value. You are ahead an overwhelming majority of the time here and are unlikely to get reraised against this opponent.

[Harv72b]

If you're folding to a 3-bet, I think you can raise. But I'd just call--small sample size, but this guy doesn't look like he's limping Ace/rag too often from UTG+1, nor betting into you with an underpair or jack. I think you're up against AJ a pretty significant amount of the time.

I'd probably raise the turn out of reflex, and with the third player still in &amp; gutshots a possibility I still kinda like it. But, again...21/7/.7, even over just 100 hands, probably isn't betting into you with a hand you beat too often.

[W. Deranged]

My basic thought is this:

The river basically changes nothing.

The hands you would have been most afraid of on the turn (primarily AJ and a set) are still ahead of you. There are no logical two pair hand here that villain could have that don't include an A.

Reevaluate the river in that light. Villain's donk-bet on the river here seems to me to indicate a similar level of strength to a turn three-bet. I don't think many here would advocate capping the turn if three-bet. So I don't like a river raise here.

Against a very passive opponent I'm calling this river an expecting to lose a huge portion of the time.

Thank you for the replies. I did raise the river and got reraised. Out of stuborness I called, I assume this is much more of an incorrect play than the original raise (AJ it was). After reviewing the hand in poker tracker and looking at the villain's line I could think of very few hands that I could beat that would lead such a passive player to donk bet with twice, I think a call on the river is much more appropriate.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain's donk-bet on the river here seems to me to indicate a similar level of strength to a turn three-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't think the river A made villian think his Axs was good and didn't want to miss a bet on the end?

[thejameser]

i've seen more passive players over larger samples do stranger things. i raise/call some players and raise/fold other more thinking types. one thing i know, i'm raising here against a "typical" deuce/quad player.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think the river A made villian think his Axs was good and didn't want to miss a bet on the end?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what most people are missing in this thread is that villain's VPIP is only 21%, which is right on line with what a good TAG might have after a 100 hand sample. And a good TAG is not often limping AXs first in from UTG+1.

He is certainly not loose enough to assume he'd be in there with a small suited ace, nor has he looked aggressive enough to suggest that he'd donk the turn with that holding (donking the river is more likely, but the J on the turn isn't likely to make someone with A6s suddenly think his hand is good).

When a passive player donkbets you on a later street, it usually means that the card which just fell helped his hand.